Quote (ofthevoid @ 28 Jul 2021 00:47)
I don't think that's true across the board. Most of my family is overwhelmingly right. Most people I know that come from Eastern Europe are strong right. Like I know a fair amount of people from Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Romania, Croatia, Serbia, etc and they are overwhelmingly right.
I think part of it is, some of the ethnicities that come from ex-communist states really enjoy and appreciate individualism and being able to get ahead. Also, democrats really don't have that strong of a stranglehold on Latinos either imo. With time, many of these Latinos will become affluent and they will push on policies that look to redistribute their hard work.
Hmmm, I hadn't thought of people from Eastern Europe, but you're right, those tend to be pretty conservative on economic policy. But when it comes to people from Latin America, Africa, the Middle East or Asia, my point should be correct. These places are all to the left of America on economic policy.
Quote (thundercock @ 28 Jul 2021 00:55)
Still, I'm not convinced that the math is going to work out where children of immigrants are going to overwhelm the US electorate. That's some Tucker Carlson level of fear-mongering.
I didnt claim that they would "overwhelm" the US electorate, just that they push the balance of American politics in the direction of Democrats/liberalism. In a country with a tightly balanced two-party system, small changes in relative party strength can fundamentally alter the political static of the nation. Like in the example I brought up, with HW Bush and Romney both winning whites by 20% and losing blacks by 75-ish, where Bush Sr. ended up winning by 8% while Romney lost by 4. That's a demographics-fueled swing of 12% over the span of just 24 years, or an average swing of 2% every election cycle.
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What IS concerning is how unpopular Republicans are with the younger generation. Can we guarantee that the young liberal -> old conservative paradigm will hold from a party point of view?
Sure, but people tend to get more conservative as they grow older. The big question going forward is if this will continue to hold true for millennials and zoomers. Big problem here is that people tend to become more conservative with age because they leave college, buy a house, start a family, get a secure job and so on - and all these things have become delayed or even out of reach for many millennials. If the conditions aren't there for them to become established, they'll remain filthy lefties yearning for the nanny state to nourish them.
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If racist white voters are critical to your coalition...then I don't know what to tell you lol.
That's silly. In 2020, a national uniform swing of around 2.2% separated a Democratic from a
Republican trifecta. When the political balance is hanging by such a thread, any part of one's coalition is crucial.
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I think Romney/Ryan fiscal conservatism only appeals to highly educated fiscal hawks which is an incredibly small portion of the population. Hawley is correct that GOP voters only support that stuff IF you can deliver on the social issues such as abortion. Economic populism is the way to go from a coalition building standpoint but the GOP doesn't have the right people for that. They really need to clean house at the state and national level.
Agreed.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 27 2021 05:16pm