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Dec 17 2022 12:00pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Dec 17 2022 12:55pm)
The bulk of Japanese public debt is held by its own people, so it's far less of a big deal than other countries' outstanding debt with foreign creditors.
Taiwan serves as a gigantic buffer that allows the US, Japan and their alliance to stop China from exerting influence over half of the South China Sea and thus over something like 50% of the world's entire shipping volume. Therefore, even if the foundries are relocated to the mainland US or to Japan, Taiwan would still have have tremendous strategic value.


This is true of a lot of indebted nations though. It's still extremely problematic that they have a shrinking tax base. Japan has a real problem. Like we in the US have a lot of debt but because we have a growing future tax base, it's not as big of a deal because we know later generations which will earn more and be more numerous can support the debt.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Dec 17 2022 12:02pm
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Dec 17 2022 12:05pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 17 Dec 2022 19:00)
This is true of a lot of indebted nations though. It's still extremely problematic that they have a shrinking tax base. Japan has a real problem.

Japan's external debt isn't particularly problematic, and other countries struggle with an aging population as well, so I really don't think Japan is in dramatically more trouble than everyone else.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt
https://www.globalfirepower.com/external-debt-by-country.php

Also note that Japan has one of the largest capital stocks in the world, they own a tremendous amount of assets they could liquidate if push came to shove.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Dec 17 2022 12:05pm
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Dec 17 2022 12:11pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Dec 17 2022 01:05pm)
Japan's external debt isn't particularly problematic, and other countries struggle with an aging population as well, so I really don't think Japan is in dramatically more trouble than everyone else.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt
https://www.globalfirepower.com/external-debt-by-country.php

Also note that Japan has one of the largest capital stocks in the world, if push came to shove, they would own a tremendous amount of assets they could liquidate.


That's not really true for one main reason. Yes other places around the world also have internal declining populations and aging populations. Europe is a good example of that. The key difference between the two though is Europe has ton of immigration. People from eastern Europe, ME, Africa, ensure that Europe's future tax base continues to grow. In contrast, Japan has very little to no immigration and that type of dynamic wont change very soon.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Dec 17 2022 12:11pm
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Dec 17 2022 12:49pm
Japan is back on the menu
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Quote (ofthevoid @ 17 Dec 2022 19:11)
That's not really true for one main reason. Yes other places around the world also have internal declining populations and aging populations. Europe is a good example of that. The key difference between the two though is Europe has ton of immigration. People from eastern Europe, ME, Africa, ensure that Europe's future tax base continues to grow. In contrast, Japan has very little to no immigration and that type of dynamic wont change very soon.


This is not a good example. Yes, the influx of Eastern Europeans has helped spur growth in Western Europe over the past 10-20 years, but this source of cheap labor is running dry, the age pyramid of the remaining population in these Eastern European countries is dramatically out of whack as a result. The immigration from the ME and Africa is more a burden for Europe than helpful; over half these people have such a low education and qualification that they are destined to remain net transfer recipient for their whole life. Low-skill immigration into countries with a generous welfare state and a post-industrial, knowledge-based economy is just a bad idea. This is particularly true in the context of automation which will eliminate more and more low-skill jobs over the coming decades.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Dec 17 2022 01:06pm
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Dec 17 2022 01:26pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Dec 17 2022 02:05pm)
This is not a good example. Yes, the influx of Eastern Europeans has helped spur growth in Western Europe over the past 10-20 years, but this source of cheap labor is running dry, the age pyramid of the remaining population in these Eastern European countries is dramatically out of whack as a result. The immigration from the ME and Africa is more a burden for Europe than helpful; over half these people have such a low education and qualification that they are destined to remain net transfer recipient for their whole life. Low-skill immigration into countries with a generous welfare state and a post-industrial, knowledge-based economy is just a bad idea. This is particularly true in the context of automation which will eliminate more and more low-skill jobs over the coming decades.


People from ME and Africa will eventually become contributing members just as well and that stream of people isn't stopping imo. Maybe it takes longer but their kids that grow up in western Europe will eventually also become contributors. I mean in many respects I don't disagree. I'm originally from eastern Europe, and you're right, at this point many people that left for greener pastures in western Europe already did so, so that well isn't what it used to be. Most of my working aged family members that are still in Europe are already in UK, Germany, etc. I do think there is still a significant pool of future taxpayers who will come from within eastern Europe, i mean look at how many millions are coming from Ukraine. A fair amount of these people won't be going back IMO. There are still a lot of people in Romania, Poland, Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova, et cetera that hope to go work in Germany or France of whatever just because you can make more money. Japan does not have that, nor are they all of the sudden saying okay lets let a bunch of uneducated migrants come. I guess they could let in southeast Asians i.e. Vietnamese, Cambodians, Thai, etc. because we know they won't be welcoming non-Asians, but do you really think their immigration policy will change on a dime?
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Dec 17 2022 01:47pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 18 Dec 2022 02:11)
That's not really true for one main reason. Yes other places around the world also have internal declining populations and aging populations. Europe is a good example of that. The key difference between the two though is Europe has ton of immigration. People from eastern Europe, ME, Africa, ensure that Europe's future tax base continues to grow. In contrast, Japan has very little to no immigration and that type of dynamic wont change very soon.


Most East Asian Countries are quite homogeneous and Anti Immigration. Japan will find it extremely hard to increase their populations. There are a couple of ways though and the government actually close one eye on these subjects.
My country wanted to adopt those methods but the sizable amount of Christians made noise.
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Dec 17 2022 02:12pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Dec 17 2022 12:27pm)
The islands population is vastly Chinese and it has roots in Han Chinese dating many centuries way before western colonialists showed up. Just because this current iteration of the Chinese authority never held it doesn’t mean you can separate its ethnic roots. That is the strongest claim over sovereignty.


And the island is ruled by a Han-Chinese government in the ROC. 1930s racialism died with Hitler in 1945. There's no mandate that ethnicities must be ruled by one government. That's certainly not the case for the Anglos, Germans, and any number of other groups. And if that were the case, then Han rule over Xinjiang and Tibet would in turn be illegitimate, and vast portions of present day China would have to be broken up. Perhaps East Turkestan will finally have its day in the sun.

Support for unification is less than 10%. So we have an independent people, ruled by an independent government, which has never been ruled by the PRC and which does not want to be ruled by the PRC. Let's be honest with ourselves and view Chinese aggression over Taiwan for what it is.

Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Dec 17 2022 02:47pm)
Most East Asian Countries are quite homogeneous and Anti Immigration. Japan will find it extremely hard to increase their populations. There are a couple of ways though and the government actually close one eye on these subjects.
My country wanted to adopt those methods but the sizable amount of Christians made noise.


What are those methods?

This post was edited by bogie160 on Dec 17 2022 02:13pm
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Dec 17 2022 02:22pm
Quote (bogie160 @ 18 Dec 2022 04:12)
And the island is ruled by a Han-Chinese government in the ROC. 1930s racialism died with Hitler in 1945. There's no mandate that ethnicities must be ruled by one government. That's certainly not the case for the Anglos, Germans, and any number of other groups. And if that were the case, then Han rule over Xinjiang and Tibet would in turn be illegitimate, and vast portions of present day China would have to be broken up. Perhaps East Turkestan will finally have its day in the sun.

Support for unification is less than 10%. So we have an independent people, ruled by an independent government, which has never been ruled by the PRC and which does not want to be ruled by the PRC. Let's be honest with ourselves and view Chinese aggression over Taiwan for what it is.



What are those methods?


Back in the 70s and 80s during the peak of Japanese economy. A lot of Japanese businessman or those that can afford took second or third wives not officially but the government closed one eye.

My Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew spoke of this situation in the mid 80s because he can forsee a higher educated population will have a effect on birth rates but the Christian Groups in Singapore prevented it from happening.
At the end of the day only the Muslim Population in Singapore are allowed to take multiple wives as a result.

Ethnic Muslims in Singapore have a birth rate of 1.85 as compared to the Ethnic Chinese and Indians which is around 0.8 to 0.95 at the moment.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Dec 17 2022 02:22pm
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Dec 17 2022 02:45pm
Quote (bogie160 @ Dec 17 2022 03:12pm)
And the island is ruled by a Han-Chinese government in the ROC. 1930s racialism died with Hitler in 1945. There's no mandate that ethnicities must be ruled by one government. That's certainly not the case for the Anglos, Germans, and any number of other groups. And if that were the case, then Han rule over Xinjiang and Tibet would in turn be illegitimate, and vast portions of present day China would have to be broken up. Perhaps East Turkestan will finally have its day in the sun.

Support for unification is less than 10%. So we have an independent people, ruled by an independent government, which has never been ruled by the PRC and which does not want to be ruled by the PRC. Let's be honest with ourselves and view Chinese aggression over Taiwan for what it is.


Throughout history sovereignties are created and claimed over lands as a result of power or commonality of culture, ethnicity, language, etc or some mix of the two. There isn't some new rule that says that no longer applies in the 21st century. China has pretty strong claim over Taiwan, I understand why in the west we would want to downplay that claim but it's not objective, we want our geopolitical challenger to be weaker that's the true reason not because their claim is unfounded.

Democracy and self-choice has it's limitations as shown in history. We didn't allow the south to secede even though one might say vast majority of the populace there was for secession. Other countries like UK with northern Ireland or Scotland are good examples, Spain with Catalonia, and so on. No, people can't always chose.

I just find it really dishonest and annoying when we have this selective application of values. It would be fine if we were consistent but we're not. If we really cared for self-determination around the globe and truly stood for it, what happened with the Kurds in recent history? I don't think there is a single ethnicity more neglected today. Don't think there is a single group today more deserving of a homeland but you think we'd step on the Turks toes and push for democracy and self-determination for the Kurds? Obviously not because it's not in our geopolitical interest to lose that ally.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Dec 17 2022 02:47pm
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