Quote (bogie160 @ 17 Nov 2022 16:32)
He is a shitty candidate.
If you look at Kemp's polls from September / October, most put Kemp's support between 50-53%, and that's roughly where he ended up. There were undecideds in the polling that eventually had to make a choice, and both Kemp and Abrams picked up some of that vote. What I'm saying is that Kemp had much more support at the time when early voting was taking place. Warnock on the other hand was winning. Support for Walker increased as time went on, so it's possible that the race is slightly more favorable to him now than it was on election night, as some of those votes may flip the second time around.
The second piece is that there's less time to canvass votes, which may hurt Democrats. Both sides have/had a month to get things in motion, but Democrats are better at it right now, and the more time they're given, the more advantageous I'd assume it is.
Fair arguments. On the flip side, it seems possible that Walker benefitted from Kemp's coattails. And I can easily imagine some GOP voters who voted for Kemp and other Republicans on the ballot, but left the Senate race blank or voted for the Libertarian. Which motivation would this type of voter have to even turn out for these runoffs, considering the only candidates on the ballot are two guys he doesn't like?
The only path for a Walker win is for Democratic turnout to drop off substantially more than Republican turnout - and given the circumstances, I just don't see that happening.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 17 2022 09:39am