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#51
Sep 15 2021 02:53pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 15 2021 03:16pm)
I absolutely cannot see how you arrive at this assessment. Can you point me to a single example of a country that got to zero community transmission after an outbreak with contact tracing, masking and some mild forms of distancing alone? Not even South Korea, a de facto island which did all these things as good as you can, got to an average lower than 6 cases per day (in early May 2020). From that point on, despite all their efforts, cases rose again to 30- to 40-ish cases per day.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

If isolated South Korea was not able to stamp out the virus with these tools in spite of using contact tracing technology which would be unconstitutional (and wholly unacceptable to the people) in NA and EU, I don't see how that's supposed to work on a global scale.
The only chance we imho had to eradicate the virus was before it spread out of China on a large scale. Once it reached places like India, Africa or Latin America, it was game over for the idea of eradicating the virus.


Hard to prevent spread when you constantly have travel from highly infected countries. The idea isn't to totally stamp out Covid with masks, sanitizer, and distancing. It's to keep it from mutating until we get total vaccination, which would all but wipe it out when paired with everything else.
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#52
Sep 15 2021 02:55pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ Sep 15 2021 01:53pm)
total vaccination, which would all but wipe it out when paired with everything else.


Speculation.
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#53
Sep 15 2021 02:57pm
Quote (JessiWan @ Sep 15 2021 03:55pm)
Speculation.


Not really. It's not like a virus is something new. We know how to get rid of them. You distance, sanitize, and gain immunity. What little is left wouldn't be anywhere near flooding hospitals even with bad outbreaks without significant mutation, which is very unlikely when you've cut the transmission down by several orders of magnitude.

Or maybe I'm just optimistic about what humans can accomplish.
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#54
Sep 15 2021 03:03pm
Quote (JessiWan @ 15 Sep 2021 22:38)
And instead of being indignant, maybe you want to ask yourself why some people have so little faith in you and people like you.

Maybe people like you have lost all credibility?


did you ever hesitate to think about how fundamentally flawed and dumb that kind of "argument" is? it went from last resort of people who simply don't have any facts on their side to first line of defence for conservatives concerning all kinds of topics, especially when it comes to rejecting science and experts.

even IF there was legitimate reason to hate / reject / dislike certain people, one's instinct of self-preservation should result in at least a critical testing of certain advice / recommendations. instead nowadays it's treated like a principled or even virtuous thing to do to outright reject everything that does not come from within your tiny ideological bubble, no matter how much sense it makes, no matter how important or how objectively correct it is...
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#55
Sep 15 2021 03:08pm
Quote (fender @ Sep 15 2021 02:03pm)
did you ever hesitate to think about how fundamentally flawed and dumb that kind of "argument" is? it went from last resort of people who simply don't have any facts on their side to first line of defence for conservatives concerning all kinds of topics, especially when it comes to rejecting science and experts.

even IF there was legitimate reason to hate / reject / dislike certain people, one's instinct of self-preservation should result in at least a critical testing of certain advice / recommendations. instead nowadays it's treated like a principled or even virtuous thing to do to outright reject everything that does not come from within your tiny ideological bubble, no matter how much sense it makes, no matter how important or how objectively correct it is...

Nobody gives a crap about what you think.

And the fact that your precious lefty "science" and "experts" have zero power over the rest of us makes you angry. Haha.

But on a more serious note: I really don't care if you think my argument is dumb or not. The fact is that some people have so little faith in people like you that they would literally throw water out on the streets just to contradict you, is very clear and unmistakable writing on the wall. If you are a lefty that is still capable of introspection, now it's the time. Ask yourself why some people distrust you so much.
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#56
Sep 15 2021 03:15pm
Quote (JessiWan @ Sep 15 2021 04:08pm)
Nobody gives a crap about what you think.

And the fact that your precious lefty "science" and "experts" have zero power over the rest of us makes you angry. Haha.

But on a more serious note: I really don't care if you think my argument is dumb or not. The fact is that some people have so little faith in people like you that they would literally throw water out on the streets just to contradict you, is very clear and unmistakable writing on the wall. If you are a lefty that is still capable of introspection, now it's the time. Ask yourself why some people distrust you so much.


You seem angry. Did somebody make you angry today? Mad that you can't just spew things without justification?
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#57
Sep 15 2021 03:16pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ Sep 15 2021 02:15pm)
You seem angry. Did somebody make you angry today? Mad that you can't just spew things without justification?


;D
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#58
Sep 15 2021 03:24pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 15 Sep 2021 22:53)
Hard to prevent spread when you constantly have travel from highly infected countries. The idea isn't to totally stamp out Covid with masks, sanitizer, and distancing. It's to keep it from mutating until we get total vaccination, which would all but wipe it out when paired with everything else.


Okay, I probably did a bad job laying out my line of reasoning. Let me try again:

  • Distancing, sanitizing and contact tracing is impossible to pull off to a sufficient degree in the slums of India, Latin America or Africa. Once the virus reached these places, keeping the global case load low became impossible and the risk of breeding new variants increased by orders of magnitude, no matter what the first world nations did.
  • To keep cases low, the reproduction factor R_t has to be kept <= 1 for the entire time it takes until vaccines. The relatively mild measures you suggested were barely able to achieve that with the original, less contagious strain and coming from low absolute case numbers. Once a significant amount of cases is introduced into a covid-free zone from abroad, you need lockdowns to get to very low cases again (where contact tracing reaches maximum efficiency).
  • Recurring outbreaks in zero-covid countries like Australia and New Zealand sparked by flight attendants, ship crews or just frozen food show how thin the margin for keeping the virus out of a covid-free country really is. Keeping cases low in at least the industrialized world without lockdowns would therefore require international trade and travel to come to a halt for the 12-18 months until vaccines, so that the green zones are not exposed to the virus which is circulating in the developing world. But we already saw last spring what even just a handful of weeks of interruption did to global supply chains, hence, this approach would have come with a very very substantial economic cost.
  • Preventing the introduction of the virus would have been exceedingly tough in world regions where industrialized and poor countries share a land border, particulary at the US-Mexico border and in south-eastern Europe. Chances are that the first world would have required frequent lockdowns to stamp out outbreaks triggered by virus introduction from abroad anyway
  • Last but not least, the approach of countries like South Korea or Taiwan hinged on digital tracing techniques which would have been without legal basis in the West. Even setting the acceptance issue aside, adopting their model in the West would not have been possible before legislative action is taken, something that requires weeks or months when we could spare, at most, a few days.


So all in all, I just don't think that the idea is realistic that masks, distancing and contact tracing would have been enough to keep cases in the first world low without lockdowns or economic damage. Like I said: once the virus had spread out of China in relevant numbers, it was game over for these approaches. This does of course not mean that we couldn't have done a better job containing the virus, but this idea that almost total containment (in at least the industrialized world) was attainable "for virtually free" is a pipe dream.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 15 2021 03:32pm
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#59
Sep 15 2021 03:30pm
Quote (JessiWan @ 15 Sep 2021 23:08)
Nobody gives a crap about what you think.

And the fact that your precious lefty "science" and "experts" have zero power over the rest of us makes you angry. Haha.

But on a more serious note: I really don't care if you think my argument is dumb or not. The fact is that some people have so little faith in people like you that they would literally throw water out on the streets just to contradict you, is very clear and unmistakable writing on the wall. If you are a lefty that is still capable of introspection, now it's the time. Ask yourself why some people distrust you so much.


you clearly didn't even begin to understand my last post, and immediately jumped to doing EXACTLY what i described: trying to justify the unreasonable and stupid, outright admitting how you can't rationally deal with your anger and emotions, proudly cutting off your nose to spite your face...
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#60
Sep 15 2021 03:32pm
Quote (fender @ Sep 15 2021 02:30pm)
you clearly didn't even begin to understand my last post, and immediately jumped to doing EXACTLY what i described: trying to justify the unreasonable and stupid, outright admitting how you can't rationally deal with your anger and emotions, proudly cutting off your nose to spite your face...


Wow you are so good at predicting! Omg!

I don't give enough of a shit about lefties to want to warn them about their impending doom. Keep doing what you have always been doing.

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