Quote (IceMage @ Mar 2 2021 11:22am)
You're criticizing Obama far more than you're defending Trump/Bush. You're not articulating some coherent policy from Trump that makes long-term strategic sense. I get it... it's easier to criticize a coherent policy, rather than defend an incoherent policy.
You say you understand the Iranian point of view... but then conclude that Trump scrapping the current deal, and applying unliteral sanctions, is a legitimate path to a better deal. Maybe the experts you read think of it differently... but the ones I read point out how the hardliners in Iran did not favor the nuclear deal in the first place, some moderates did, so the idea now that Iran would agree to another deal is highly unlikely.
I don't know that Iranian reform is a necessary goal to justify the nuclear deal. The whole point is that Iran is a dangerous country who shouldn't have nuclear weapons. So striking a deal that severely limits their capacity to get a bomb(at least for a certain amount of years) is worth it, even though they will still be a bad actor in the region.
Again I'll emphasize, your defense of Trump's policy basically concedes that it's highly unlikely to succeed. Iran will not abandon their nationalist/religious ideas.... the population is not going to overthrow the government. At least the uber hawks have a coherent policy... if Iran gets close enough to the bomb, they are willing to engage military to destroy the program. The hawkish doves(speak strongly and carry a small stick), who want to pursue a hostile policy without anything militarily to back it up, are trying to have it both ways. A hardline policy without any consequences for America. I don't see how this policy will work... because we have two administrations who have pursued it without sufficient outcomes.
The dove thesis is that Iranian aggression is largely a response to American activities in the region. If Iran is indeed, as the thesis purports, an inherently rational and non-aggressive actor, America needs only to make the first move, reintegrate Iran into the wider global community, make amends for past mistakes, and Iran will in turn adhere to international norms and forgo their hyper-aggressive foreign policy goals, which is, after all, but self-defense against unjust American imperialism and interference in Iranian affairs.
This thesis served as the basis of the Iranian nuclear deal. It was put to the test, and it failed. The promised thaw did not take place. Iran did not desist from but rather increased its violent activities in the region. Americans and American allies lost their lives. It contributed to the oppression of Sunnis in Iraq, and the subsequent rise of the Islamic State and the resulting chaos in Syria. Although I disagreed with it vehemently at the time, it was perhaps fair to try. We did, and now it is time to acknowledge reality and take a different tact.
The Trump strategy tried to do too much, but the underpinnings of the hawkish policy view is that Iranian foreign policy interests conflict with those of the United States, and that Iranian ambitions must be restrained with a combination of economic sanctions and the threat of military force. Right or wrong is not relevant, we are not trying to answer a moral question, but a political one.
The goal is not necessarily to overthrow the Iranian regime. It is to prevent undue Iranian interference in the region, protect the Gulf States which are critical to global energy security, and ensure that Iranian aggression (including nuclear bomb research) is punished accordingly with a combination of military strikes and strict economic sanctions. At the very least, this policy aims to protect the United States and its allies from the consequences of Iranian aggression. At most, it is possible that economic sanctions will continue to force domestic concessions as the Iranian public, which has grown increasingly used to a wealthier standard of living, puts increasing pressure of the regime.