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#51
Nov 1 2020 10:00pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Nov 1 2020 11:58pm)
I think that a ballot is unambiguously "cast" as long as it's postmarked on election day, and it being in the possession of the postal service is functionally indistinguishable from being received in the clerk's office since it's out of your hands and into an official purveyor of the ballot.


alright. And you acknowledge that there could be some differences between what "you think" vs. what "the state of Wisconsin thinks" vs. what "the federal government thinks"?

This post was edited by Kayeto on Nov 1 2020 10:02pm
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#52
Nov 1 2020 10:09pm
Quote (Kayeto @ Nov 1 2020 10:00pm)
alright. And you acknowledge that there could be some differences between what "you think" vs. what "the state of Wisconsin thinks" vs. what "the federal government thinks"?


Sure, and I think if you value voter participation in Democracy (which Republicans as a party explicitly do not) then you would think what I think.
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#53
Nov 1 2020 10:14pm
Quote (Handcuffs @ Nov 1 2020 07:42pm)
I don't think it's by design or intention, but merely the coincidental result. Trump supporters aren't as active and involved with polling groups and generally have a negative view of polls/the media at-large. I think it's part of their "Silent Majority" mantra.


What makes you think Trump voters are silent? They had a 96 mile long car parade in Arizona. Fuck your feelings. Own the libs. MAGA.

Similar to Twitter, I think Trump voters are significantly fewer than you'd expect.
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#54
Nov 1 2020 10:15pm
Quote (thundercock @ Nov 1 2020 10:14pm)
What makes you think Trump voters are silent? They had a 96 mile long car parade in Arizona. Fuck your feelings. Own the libs. MAGA.

Similar to Twitter, I think Trump voters are significantly fewer than you'd expect.


The right always wants to have it both ways.

In this case turnout for Trump says he's winning, but they're also super silent so their turnout is going to be underestimated.
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#55
Nov 1 2020 10:22pm
Quote (thundercock @ Nov 1 2020 08:14pm)
What makes you think Trump voters are silent? They had a 96 mile long car parade in Arizona. Fuck your feelings. Own the libs. MAGA.

Similar to Twitter, I think Trump voters are significantly fewer than you'd expect.


With respect to engaging with media and polling companies.
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#56
Nov 1 2020 10:22pm
Quote (thundercock @ Nov 1 2020 11:14pm)
What makes you think Trump voters are silent? They had a 96 mile long car parade in Arizona. Fuck your feelings. Own the libs. MAGA.

Similar to Twitter, I think Trump voters are significantly fewer than you'd expect.


Polls can trace you by your phone number and address. Trump voters tend to be on the skiddish side.
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#57
Nov 1 2020 10:44pm
Quote (Handcuffs @ Nov 1 2020 08:22pm)
With respect to engaging with media and polling companies.


Very few polls are live caller polls and quite a few of them are online. I just don't see any evidence of this sort of behavior and I think it's a coping mechanism from the left to justify why the polls are wrong this time around.

Quote (EndlessSky @ Nov 1 2020 08:22pm)
Polls can trace you by your phone number and address. Trump voters tend to be on the skiddish side.


Voter registration is also public information. You can determine vote percentage down to the precinct level. If you're that skittish, why would you even vote? It sounds like a bullshit excuse. There WILL be polling error this election just like any other election. It's just going to be from something that we didn't consider this time.
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#58
Nov 1 2020 10:56pm
Quote (thundercock @ Nov 1 2020 08:44pm)
Very few polls are live caller polls and quite a few of them are online. I just don't see any evidence of this sort of behavior and I think it's a coping mechanism from the left to justify why the polls are wrong this time around.


Perhaps. I think hesitancy on the left is justified given how off the polls were for 2016.

Even Nate Silver from 538 says that Trump supporters respond to polls less, on average.

This post was edited by Handcuffs on Nov 1 2020 11:00pm
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#59
Nov 2 2020 12:31am
Quote (Handcuffs @ Nov 1 2020 08:56pm)
Perhaps. I think hesitancy on the left is justified given how off the polls were for 2016.

Even Nate Silver from 538 says that Trump supporters respond to polls less, on average.


Check out my post here.
https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=84145381&f=119&p=564403745

The polls were "wrong" in specific places and that's been taken into account by most reputable pollsters. If the polls are wrong in a systematic way, it won't be because of "white uneducated people."

In 2018, the polls were fairly reliable except in Florida.
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#60
Nov 2 2020 03:38am
Quote (thundercock @ Nov 2 2020 01:31am)
Check out my post here.
https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=84145381&f=119&p=564403745

The polls were "wrong" in specific places and that's been taken into account by most reputable pollsters. If the polls are wrong in a systematic way, it won't be because of "white uneducated people."

In 2018, the polls were fairly reliable except in Florida.


There is a big disconnect between pollsters. Someone is clearly wrong, and we'll find out who that is.
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