Quote (thesnipa @ Jul 21 2020 11:24am)
you theory has one issue, there's nothing stopping chinese firms from building the new factories in vietnam etc once the sanctions necessitate it. AND you're underestimating how large those sanctions would need to be imo, its not just tariff and wait for a few years, because they can control the back end and manipulate employment costs or use cheaper materials. as soon as we move to vietnam chinese money floods in and it all leads back to the state in massive amounts. this is the fundamental problem with a free market coming up against a state run economy, all roads lead back to the govt even if you start them in vietnam. we also dont have any assurance that we're not trading a boogeyman for another, what protections will Vietnam offer for USA ip? none, if they did theyd be just as out of business as china. thinking moving manufacturing out of china weakens china is exactly wrong, it will give them a larger stake in the economies of their neighbors. the citizens of the USA dont own it, the special interests do. we're talking about a plan that makes china THE special interest in vietnam, singapore, etc. and before u say the USA will beat them to the punch, no they wont. US manufacturers have little to no interest in creating asian firms, its bad business and bad PR waiting to happen.
I'm talking about foreign companies which have factories in China or are contracting those firms.
Even if Chinese firms start building elsewhere it would hurt China on the aggregate because it would be Vietnamese people with jobs and Vietnam's gov't collecting taxes from production. Sure, maybe they circumvent tariffs that way but at a steep cost for China.
You have a pretty inverted understanding here. Moving things out of China= less leverage for China not more. It's hard to fuck with your neighbors militarily when they have billions of your production in their country. These companies will pressure the commies at home to settle down and not be too agro because no one wants to fuck with the hand that feeds them. Chinese oligarchs aren't going to let some commie 'we want world dominion' bureaucrats put their money at risk.
And ultimately it's not about PR or short term bads here. China is an issue, like that's being crystallized with the islands, with their interference in places like Australia, with their minority camps, with their border dispute with India, with their parasitic Africa 'help'.
Giving them the proverbial Czechoslovakia won't work. I'm generally against war, interventions & escalations but the China threat is a serious one. This isn't goat fuckers in Afghanistan or Syria, this is something that is on par with the USSR.
This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jul 21 2020 09:51am