Quote (Goomshill @ 27 Jun 2018 23:18)
I was out earlier and only had time to write 'topic'
but I want to bask in the feeling of sweet vindication as I remind y'all what I was harping on about, at great length and many walls of text, a year and a half ago.
When Trump won and nominated Gorsuch, I was shrieking to anyone who would listen that the democrats were experiencing a self-destructive tea-party-esque radicalism that would cost them politically down the line in substantial ways. They insisted on pointlessly filibustering gorsuch to show how much they opposed him and make sure that the #NotMyPresident crowd didn't come for them like it has just done for a certain new york representative yesterday. The democrats were fearful of their radicalized far-left that was so vehemently anti-Trump that they were willing to force a nuclear showdown on the filibuster. They could have simply let it pass and keep the filibuster option intact, but no, they filibustered and McConnell immediately went nuclear and ended SCOTUS filibusters for good.
And as I predicted, the conditions in the senate changed substantially from when Trump took office. At the time the senators rallied around him with a spike in approval ratings and an election mandate. Even McCain who had a fit with the Gang of 14 was willing to go nuclear when it counted. But now the senate has narrowed to 51-49 and McCain is on his deathbed and openly rebuking Trump if not fully defecting to the democrats yet, and Jeff Flake is probably the least loved man in America. Maybe Murkowski got bought off with considerations for her state, but all it would take is two senators who were normally willing to vote for judicial nominees, but not willing to go nuclear for Trump now- but already went nuclear for him a year and a half ago.
The democrats threw away an important political fight. If we had a nuclear showdown today and either McCain croaks or lives long enough to spite Trump and even one defector is opposed to going nuclear, that would have positioned the democrats in a place to bargain. They would have been able to hold up the replacement and only resolve the showdown with at least some form of compromise even if it was mostly one-sided. They could have extracted a more moderate candidate or some other concessions somewhere. No. Instead, they postured with a pointless filibuster that served only to appease their radicals and now even a heavily dysfunctional senate majority led by McConnell is free to nominate count dracula to the supreme court.
For decades, Democrats have been good at winning elections, but horrible at the strategic elements of politics.
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My opinion: Kennedy's retirement could be great news for congressional republicans, and bad news for Trump.
If the nomination stalls until after the midterms, this could be the issue that drives conservative voter turnout, it could be the issue that closes the "enthusiasm gap" which was threatening to doom the GOP. The conservative Scotus majority is the carrot that all republican candidates can hold in front of their base's nose.
It could also be the issue that allows moderately conservative voters who are turned off and disillusioned by Trump's presidency to hold their noses one more time and vote for the GOP, while they would have stayed at home in "smaller stakes" midterms.
For Trump personally, this could be bad news in the intermediate future. Once he has appointed the 2nd conservative Scotus judge, his party could decide that they have gotten everything that they could possibly get out of Trump, and consider him a liability from that point on - a liability that will be dropped as soon as an opportunity arises to do so without turning his base against the GOP. But on the other hand, this win could rally Trump's base around him and make them taste blood: maybe the calculus is that the GOP and its voters bet on Trump outlasting Ginsburg as well, which would push the Scotus into solidly conservative territory for decades to come. So yeah, this could either be good or bad news for Trump, depending on the long-term strategical plan that the RNC is making for the "post-midterms until 2024"-time period.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 27 2018 03:51pm