Quote (Pollster @ Oct 21 2016 02:30pm)
A quick peel back of the curtain, and what could constitute a House update.
The "NetBoard" has become the newest tool in campaign land, shorthand for measuring/comparing the Democrats' chances of retaking the House as Trump's campaign continues to plummet. The formatting is simple (which is why it might look a little confusing here, but I'm not going to go through and change everything). Basically you have a state abbreviation, what the Dems' need to try to shoot for as a realistic net change, quick notes (if any) on the key races. You delete all the lines for states that the GOP gerrymandered to a ridiculous degree and for states that the Dems are already maxed out in. This board for example has the Dems picking up 26 seats, just short of winning back the majority:
AK +1 - Strong recruit, incumbent is years past his prime.
AZ +0 - AZ-2 was possible with a better candidate and may fall in a wave anyway. AZ-1 will be a tough hold but manageable.
CA +2 - Must hold CA-24. Dems have a golden opportunity with CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-49 all tossups.
CO +2 - CO-6 is a must-win, CO-3 would greatly help their cause, it’s a “Majority Maker.”
FL +2 - Trades FL-2 for FL-10. Must pick up FL-13 and FL-26. FL-18 will be a tough hold but manageable. FL-7 would be a “Majority Maker.” FL-27 would fall in a massive wave.
IL +1 - IL-10 is a must-win. IL-12 probably falls in large-enough wave but needed a much better candidate in any event. IL-13 would fall in a wave without a Dem-as-Indy.
IN +1 - IN-9 is fluke possibility. IN-2 might fall in a wave and would make their path much easier.
IA +2 - IA-1 is a must-win. IA-3 is only slightly-less important.
KS +0 - KS-3 is a fluke possibility, only possible due to Trump being hilariously disliked.
ME +1 - ME+1 is a must-win.
MI +1 - MI-1 and MI-7 are “Majority Makers,” Dems need at least one. MI-8 would be in same category if weren’t relying on emergency candidate. MI-11 could fall in a wave.
MN +1 - MN-2 is a must-win. MN-3 will fall in a wave. MN-8 will be a tough hold but always manageable.
MT +0 - Juneau a terrific candidate with proven electoral record, Zinke is a fluke winner despite his strong bio. MT-AL is a “Majority Maker” so the Dems need it if they’re going to retake the House.
NE +0 - NE-2 always a tough hold but definitely manageable with weak GOP candidate and Clinton organizing in Omaha for the EV.
NV +2 - NV-4 is a must-win. NV-3 is only slightly-less important.
NH +1 - NH-1 is a must-win with all of Guinta’s baggage.
NJ +1 - NJ-5 is only race worth watching, Dems fielded terrible candidates in NJ-2 and NJ-3.
NM +0 - NM-2 could fall in a wave but needs a way better candidate.
NY +2 - NY-19 and NY-22 are “Majority Makers.” NY-1, NY-23, and NY-24 would take strong Clinton coattails. NY-21 will have to wait until next cycle with stronger recruit and no Green, and NY-11 would need a T1 recruit too.
NC +0 - Too Gerrymandered (GOP). NC-13 could fall in a wave due to fluke circumstances but otherwise the whole state can be ignored.
OH +0 - Too Gerrymandered (GOP). OH-6 and OH-14 could have fallen in a wave if Dems had better candidates.
PA +1 - PA-8 is a “Majority Maker.” PA-16 falls in a wave. PA-6 and PA-7 need better candidates.
SC +0 - Too Gerrymandered (GOP). Fran Person a great challenger (SC-5), if Clinton overperforms it could fall in a wave.
TX +1 - Too Gerrymandered (GOP). TX-23 is the only competitive district in the entire state, and it’s a “Majority Maker.”
UT +1 - Owens came close in 2014 of all years, Trump is historically weak, Love is a terrible fit.
VA +2 - Picks up VA-4 for free. VA-10 is tough but a “Majority Maker.” VA-5 could be a steal.
WI +1 - WI-8 is a “Majority Maker.” Both WI-6 and WI-7 could have fallen in a wave with better candidates.
AK - incumbent won by 12.5% - missed.
AZ - both 1 and 2 as called. Net +0.
CA - swing and a miss on all 4 tossups, notably Darrell Issa's seat. Net D+0.
CO - both swing and miss. Net +0.
FL - mishmash of correct and mixed calls, but on the whole, net D+1.
IL - net +1. Good calls on all 3.
IN - no changes, net +0.
IA - missed on both. Net +0.
KS - correct.
ME - both incumbents won. Net +0.
MI - also net +0.
MN - also net +0, even after Craig and the DCCC outspent Lewis by 5 to 1 in MN-2.
MT - correct call.
NE - missed. Net -1.
NV - called correctly with net +2.
NH - called correctly with net +1.
NJ - called correctly with +1.
NM - called correctly with +0.
NY - missed by 2. Net +0.
NC through SC all called correctly.
TX - missed, remaining net +0.
UT - also missed, remaining net +0.
VA - missed one, only picking up +1.
WI - missed. Net +0.
Not quite what you were looking for. What made the difference in your opinion? Steep dropoff in Democrat turnout? Undersampling of angry white men?