I actually don't know who you're referring to. Indiana is so gerrymandered though that as much as it sucks to say there's very little your vote will accomplish, unless on the off chance that you live in the 2nd congressional district because that is the only even remotely competitive U.S. House race and even it isn't very competitive.

I really don't keep tabs on most of the things you talk about/know. I'm not too familiar with all the districts and what not . Definitely not a hard core congressional lurker

It's alright, most don't. That's exactly why I made the thread. Several people are always asking about how the elections are shaping up or what's going on in this race or that state. And rather than reply to those people individually, especially if they ask the same things, I prefer to just post something one time, here, and that way anyone who's interested in it can be directed to it.

Awesome man well if I have any questions I know who to ask

Your buddy Nate Silver thinks there is an 80% chance McConnell wins and he's up a few points on Grimes in the recent polls that I've seen.
The Huffpo model, if you have any respect for that at all, is also 94% sure McConnell has a lead.

Not that I have any love for the guy.

That's because "my buddy" Nate Silver uses a model that cannot be used this early in an election cycle due to a lack of polling, meaning his current predictions are next to worthless. He has to use what little polling is available now, which has come overwhelmingly from GOP shill polls and otherwise nonpartisan polls that have a ridiculously pro-GOP house effect, and combine it with a formula he uses that allegedly measures "state fundamentals" that also overstates GOP advantages in most state until there is sufficient polling for him to use his now-famous model. The HuffPo Pollster is currently plagued by the same lack of reputable, trustworthy polling. Both get more accurate closer to Election Day.

Alison Grimes, despite the fundamentals of Kentucky, is currently tied or leading McConnell. She has consistently outraised him and she is tied with or leads him in surveys from trustworthy polling firms in recent polling. Two such surveys, a Courier Journal poll with a +2 lead for McConnell and a PPP-client poll with a +2 lead for Grimes demonstrates how the contest remains a MoE race. Grimes has consistently recorded the levels of support in the key regions of the state necessary to win. Michelle Nunn is equally competitive as she has also consistently outraised her opponent (despite him dumping in several millions of dollars of his own money) and also either leads or is tied with him in reputable polling. More importantly, she's scored the levels of support among each racial demographic to get very close to 50% even if turnout is similar to 2010.

Anyone who thinks either of the two of them are "unlikely" to win either simply doesn't understand how elections work or they're making a prediction based on yet-unseen events that could potentially change the race at a later date. All of the currently-available data clearly indicates that both races are pure tossups.

New Ranges, shift, and cause for movement.

House: D+2 - R+10 - [Shift: ->] (Crucial elements of Florida gerrymander will exist through 2014)
Senate: R+1 - R+7 - [Shift: ->] (Mississippi no longer in serious contention for Democrats)
Governors: D+6 - R+1 - [Shift: <-] (Hawaii is nowhere near as vulnerable as it was)

The biggest change comes in the Governors elections where the Democrats cashed in on an overwhelming primary victory in Hawaii for State Senator David Ige over incumbent Governor Neil Abercrombie. Ambercrombie was chronically unpopular among many Democrats due mainly to problems with the state not of his own making and replacing him with Ige likely deprives the GOP of one of their very few pickup opportunities. Abercrombie was very gracious in defeat as he said he would be (the election moved sharply towards Ige in the final weeks) and he'll be a good team player for the Democrats in their attempt to keep Democrat Mufi Hanneman from playing spoiler with an Independent bid.

If Ige holds the governorship for the Democrats then that reduces the GOP's pickup opportunities to a mere 3 seats: Arkansas, where they were already expected to win, Connecticut, where the 2010 rematch will be extremely close, and Illinois, where another chronically-unpopular governor is in a tight race with a self-funding billionaire. The Democrats can counter those potential Republican gains with two near-certain pickups of their own (Maine and Pennsylvania), by being in four true toss-up races (Florida, Kansas, Michigan, and Wisconsin), and having a strong chance to win in several other states (Arizona, Georgia, and South Carolina). Illinois Democrats are probably pretty pissed that no one stepped up to primary Governor Pat Quinn in order to keep that seat out of play in a fashion similar to what Hawaii Democrats tried to do last night.

This post was edited by Pollster on Aug 10 2014 08:37am

No new ratings or range changes, but some interesting developments down in the weeds:

I tend to do everything possible to avoid incorporating Suckmussen (Rasmussen Reports, for those unfamiliar with polling) into any analysis given their egregious track record and obvious methodological flaws (which are many in amount), but the premiere GOP shill polling firm has recently put out polls in a number of key races that are all at once very interesting, suspect, and potentially fatal for Republicans this November. They recently released a poll of the Kansas Governor's race which found Democratic challenger Paul Davis leading Sam Brownback by 10 points and above 50% for the first time in public polling. This represents a 17-point swing from the last Suckmussen poll of the race back i April. The new poll screams outlier, both because it's Rasmussen and because Davis' lead is so large, but the top-lines generally match the state of the race as observed by SurveyUSA, a much better firm than Rasmussen. It's interesting.

Suckmussen also polled the Kansas Senate race and found incumbent Pat Roberts in the mid-40s and clinging to a 4-point lead against Democratic challenger Chad Taylor. The poll didn't even include a conservative Independent candidate who has raised tons of money and is already advertising on TV. It's easy to think that these numbers are off for a number of reasons (it's Rasmussen, the polls were taken together, the Senate race is volatile because the primary election just happened) but the actual polling sample was much closer to the potential electorate than what Suckmussen usually uses. Suckmussen also just released their weekly Generic Congressional Ballot question, which moved 3 points towards the Democrats from their last (and obvious outlier) poll one week ago. Measuring the poll-to-poll developments are about the only thing that this firm is good for when it comes to the GCB.

PPP just released another much-anticipated poll of the Kentucky Senate race, finding Mitch McConnell leading Alison Grimes and David Patterson 44%-40%-7%. The good news for McConnell is that his approval rating has rebounded (due entirely to Republicans coming home), the bad news is that his approval rating is 10% among the undediced voters and Grimes' favorability is higher than his both among decided and undediced voters. Patterson submitted his signatures to gain ballot access yesterday so this will be a 3-person race come November.

A shocking revelation that no one saw coming, no doubt.

Hick and Udall, despite the deal they brokered to get rid of the Polis initiatives, are still in bad shape, aren't they?

This post was edited by inkanddagger on Aug 12 2014 02:59pm