Quote (EndlessSky @ Jul 6 2016 04:20pm)
How so? That is part of how Brexit happened after all.
I'd say there are 3 main reasons:
1) "Historical" - Primary turnout has had no correlation to GE turnout over the past 50 years
2) This primary's weird turnout specifically - millions of Dems crossed over to vote in GOP primaries, against Trump, and people are naively assuming those were Republicans voting
3) Post-primary dynamic - Trump has literally no campaign infrastructure, he's relying 100% on the RNC, and while they are operating at a much higher level than they were in 2012, they're still competing against the DNC and a Clinton campaign that is absolutely dominating the battlegrounds right now on the ground. Trump also obviously turns tens of millions of people off with his rhetoric and that's going to depress voters.
There could be more but those are 3 big ones. There's also the small problem of Trump always saying that he's going to try to win this state or that state, yesterday it was Connecticut and Oregon, before that it was Maine and Minnesota, back before it was Washington and New Jersey (before looking across the room to Chris Christie for assurance). He hasn't actually made the mistake of sinking money or resources into these states (because he doesn't have any), but if he doesn't focus in on the 8-10 states that'll decide the winner he could end up being severely outmatched in just a couple of them and that'd be a deficit on the ground that can't be made up.