You have the advantage of learning from the experiences Europe makes with reopening. If, for example, reopening schools didnt lead to a surge in infections in Norway, Denmark, Germany, Austria or France, then it can be assumed that it's safe to do the same in the U.S.

Being behind by 2 weeks is a real boon in a situation like this. Which is also why Italy was hit particularly hard: they simply got blindsided and only realized the scope of the problem when it was already too late.

Spain is reporting every death where a patient is recorded as having Covid or Covid-like symptoms as a covid death. So if you die in a car crash, but test positive for covid, then it's a covid death.

This is part of the huge issue, and spain still hasn't tested even a tenth of their population. They've tested fewer people than the US has, in fact. And go ahead and do a quick search on "Cormorbidity in Covid Deaths" and you'll find a larger pool of information, from medical sources no less, than your relatively worthless predictions are.

Now, we know that the aggregate info you see on Worldometer is false. We don't know by exactly how much, but we do know it's wrong. We watched specific numbers in specific counties get rolled into it where the deaths were not caused by Covid, but people dying from terminal illness in hospice. When the health reporting agency tried to mark them down as covid deaths, it was disputed, and they were removed as that cause of death, but they remained on worldometer. Spain shows as 3 million tests, yet health reporting from spain shows they're at roughly 1.6 million tests. Which is correct?

But let's assume for the sake of argument that the numbers are 100% correct. Why does sweden have such a low death count given the lack of lockdown on anything but super large gatherings (such as concerts)? Why did their death counts appear to peak in April, and now they're on a downward trend? Why are Texas death counts not going up at a massive rate even though they've fully reopened, and have been for a couple weeks now? In fact, it seems they started their downward curve at the beginning of May. But they're ramping up tests, so they're finding more and more positive cases, but few deaths indeed. Why? These are numbers you seem to trust. Can you explain to me how they've jumped to a 1000 case per day average, but dropped to 20-30 deaths a day? How can their case load be going up, and their death count be going down?

As I said, your assumptions are wrong. Ferguson was wrong when he claimed 2.2m deaths for the US. We were over 2 months late in a lockdown. The virus was already in all states and counties BEFORE the lockdown order hit. Nobody was even bothering with masks and gloves for the majority of February because the WHO insisted that it couldn't be spread by human to human contact in spite of information by Taiwan, who has done a FANTASTIC job combating it.

So please explain to me, when even WaPo is saying, "Nah, we were wrong, evidence is showing there's likely 10x the cases predicted" which would increase the denominator by 10x, turning the previous 2-5% mortality rates into .2-.5% on the outside, based on already faulty models, why you're so certain suddenly that it's 1-2%?

Even now, I can't go get a test even if I want to. I exhibited a few of the symptoms that were consistent with it back in January, and being on the left coast, anything's possible. But I was never severe. And when they had a verified testing method, it became "only if you're dying". Now, it's only if you're old or have severe symptoms. I still don't even qualify for testing, and due to no real "need" for a hospital visit, I may face a fine for even attempting to go, due to the extension of the lockdown until July.

So when you're excluding a huge percentage of the population due to being young and healthy, and are focusing your testing on those who're old and unhealthy, why would you expect anything other than confirmation bias on mortality rate? Get some more even handed testing in, you'll find different. Here's a report from a district in Germany where they certainly did. 15% of the population infected, 0.37% lethality rate. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-team-covid-infection-fatality.html

The bottom line is, you simply don't know. That report is probably closer to an accurate number than anything provided by any aggregate or standard media source.

At any rate, make up your own mind regarding risk factors to yourself. A couple stats that all studies agree on: Lethality rate for those under age 60 without comorbidity risks are lower than 0.01%. AKA, they are not enough for a lockdown of the healthy population. Thus, only those 60+ or who are at risk of a comorbidity issue should seek to self-isolate. All measures to insure they are financially assisted while vaccines are worked on should be taken.

Shutting down the world is not the answer. Believing fake numbers without facts is not the answer.

This post was edited by InsaneBobb on May 18 2020 02:40pm

Bob, you aren't a well accredited person and you aren't an assignment so nobody is going to use their leisure time to read your walls.

Use brevity and you will communicate more effectively. Stick to one point at a time, and make sure you're saying the minimum amount to get your point across.

Could you link those multiple studies showing that "97% of covid fatalities are caused by co-morbidities, regardless of age group" that you were talking about in your previous post? That would be really interesting to read.

Please it's time for you inform French & Spanish government that their studies and evaluations are all wrong, do it quick.
Regarding Sweden they did a catastrophic mistake they had all the good cards in hand and fucked up, now they have like 5 or 10 times more cases and death that others northern Europe countries.
Oh well i will not lose time with this sorry.

People are dying because of the stupidity you are spreading.

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on May 18 2020 02:42pm

Sounds like we're on the right path then. I imagine that a lot of people will try to spin this into a red state vs. blue state or hard close vs. all open but we need to be careful not to fall into this trap and push back against the people who try to frame everything that way. Hyperbole doesn't get us anywhere.

The comparison between CA and NY should be enough to take the wind out of the sails of this debate.
It's also interesting to note that the big catastrophe which was predicted for Georgia and Florida based on their very lax handling of lockdown measures has not materialized.

Why? You haven't even seen fit to respond to the report from Germany. Thor over there is too lazy to read period.

This is why this topic, and forum in general, are complete trash. "I know what I'm talking about, believe me" and then all the predictions are wrong, all the assertions are based on flawed predictions, and a bunch of people are screaming down at any dissenters, "It's science!"

No. It's not science. Until you have actual facts, you have no science. I just went out of my way to provide you the most complete and accurate source that exists with complete testing of a district and factual numbers to boot. That's all the further I'm prepared to go.

0.5% is too high. 1-2% is too high. If you want numbers on comorbidity overall, or in the healthy population, if you want age and demographics breakdowns in cases and deaths, do as I suggested, and search for medical journals, medical reporting sites (NOT the WHO), and stop with the sensationalism.

But start by reading that study. I hadn't even finished proofreading my post before both you and thor had responded to it. That indicates you haven't read shit. So why would I provide more source material when you don't read what's already provided?

to the lament of a certain few usual suspect (and trashy, bitter, reality-denying, anti-American scum) groups

People die every day. Funny enough, every nation records death tallies, and they're quite easy to look up. Turns out, the total deaths by nation are only slightly higher than they were as an average from January 1st through May 18th over the last 10 years.

Statistically speaking, either the numbers are wrong, the comorbidity tally is extremely high, or deaths are being mislabeled to push a narrative.

Do I want to see a bunch of 90 year olds fall over dead? Of course not. But are a bunch of 90 year olds going to fall over dead regardless of whether or not Covid exists? Of course! Both of my wife's grandparents in their 90's have died in the last 2 years. Didn't take some mysterious spectre to accomplish that.

You can't point to the Swedish YTD death tolls and call them much out of the ordinary. And it's still interesting that flu deaths dropped to just above zero worldwide back in mid march, and suddenly covid numbers sprang through the roof. That's an indication that all pneumonia-related deaths were dumped into the covid category. Which most nations and states reporting standards indicate is the probability.

The economy is dying and people are going hungry because of the stupidity you are spreading.

This post was edited by InsaneBobb on May 18 2020 02:58pm