Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 10 2022 08:23pm)
At best, you can split the Libertarian vote by a 3:1 ratio in Walker's favoror something like that. Which would put Walker/Warnock at an exact 50:50 going into the runoff, where it's all about turnout and Democrats should have the advantage.
Right, which heavily undermines the 'libertarians are preventing walker from winning!' narrative.
Its literally stopping Warnock from winning on the spot.
Quote (YeeHaw @ Nov 10 2022 08:20pm)
Walker lost by about 1 point but two points went to the libertarian party. I highly doubt any libertarians will vote for warnock.
Quote (excellence @ Nov 10 2022 08:23pm)
it assumes everyone shows back up again in equal droves. wouldnt count on it
Yeah this is where additional problems for the GOP come in.
-The democrats will get to focus their attention on this race only, much like they did in the 2020 GA runoff where the GOP candidate actually had a lead the first time.
Money will pour in and the MSM will tell us all about how Walker hates puppies and rainbows and wants to kill grandma with tax cuts.
-The LP candidate in this race is an openly gay progressive that was lobbing the usual collection of epithets at the majority of Libertarians before the race. Hes not exactly 'stealing' GOP and right wing votes in droves.
I expect it will be more about partisan turnout than a simpler X% of libertarians votes flipping to one candidate or the other.
This post was edited by cambovenzi on Nov 10 2022 07:52pm