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Jan 8 2020 03:58pm
Quote (thesnipa @ 8 Jan 2020 22:49)
they'll just say with benefit of hindsight they knew all along it would play out like this of course.

the only other point i'd offer is deployment for readiness beats deployment for combat. while no one wants to be away from their family being on a base in the middle east is a lot better than the front lines.


yes of course, that's pretty much expected, but even considering HOW it played out so far, the 'it didn't cost us anything / this was a net win' narrative simply doesn't hold up to the facts. this is clearly a massive loss - especially if you're ACTUALLY in favour of less american military engagement in the middle east...
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Jan 8 2020 04:04pm
Quote (fender @ Jan 8 2020 03:58pm)
yes of course, that's pretty much expected, but even considering HOW it played out so far, the 'it didn't cost us anything / this was a net win' narrative simply doesn't hold up to the facts. this is clearly a massive loss - especially if you're ACTUALLY in favour of less american military engagement in the middle east...


net loss, yes. massive net loss, idk.

impending conflict with Iran gives the US the ability to shift forces deployed in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc elsewhere to non-combat readiness roles. basically, we could use impending conflict as a way to pull out from other areas.

While I don't support wholesale pullouts and creating power vacuums, from the perspective some people have for non-interventionism this could be seen as a win given some outcomes.

Other than that in terms of real cost it's:

1. damages from the embassy attack
2. cost to kill the general
3. damages from retaliatory attacks on bases
4. deployment loses

I don't see this as massive, at least not in the context of potential worst case scenarios. Also this is causing a counter narrative that congress should take back control and debate any potential conflict with Iran, which may spotlight illegal droning campaigns in Yemen. This Iran situation could actually result in less troops in active combat and increased oversight by the legislature. I wouldn't hold my breath, but it could at least further illustrate how much power the legislative branch has lost in terms of wars.
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Jan 8 2020 04:07pm
Quote (fender @ 8 Jan 2020 16:45)
i really really hope this was the full extent of iran's official response - if so, we can all consider ourselves lucky that they have smarter leadership than america.

that said, it's pretty amazing how people, who acted like they were principled non-interventionists (which always was a weak and transparent excuse to cover for another one of trump's foreign policy blunders), just backed this move that had (and unfortunately still has) the potential to escalate into a major military conflict.
a few questions for those embracing the "we killed a terrorist and it didn't cost us anything" narrative:

- what do you think about the thousands of additional troops deployed to the middle east? not just in terms of its economic costs (strange how no one is asking how to pay for this), but also the fact that it's the exact opposite of trump's promise to get america OUT of the middle east?
- how does the fact that iran now also abandoned the nuclear deal, and might go back to developing nuclear weapons, fit into the 'masterful response' narrative?
- how many additional terrorist do you guess this escalation has created? hundreds of thousands mourning and protesting in the streets, shouting 'death to america' - a few of them will inevitably make it to a military base or even to the US. worth it?
- how would you evaluate the cost of the likelihood of both parties returning to the negotiating table being decreased significantly by trump's whole approach towards iran?

i mean it's great that not more lives have been lost (yet), but people can't possibly be that shortsighted and ignorant to genuinely consider this a 'win'?!



north vietnam's population in 1964 was around 17 million people. iran's population today is around 80 million people.

what do you think about the two world wars your ancestors started? how many hundreds of millions of innocents died as a result of your bloodline's warmongering and bloodlust?

pathetic foreign voyeur
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Jan 8 2020 04:17pm
Quote (bogie160 @ 8 Jan 2020 21:44)
Vietnam has always had a much larger population than Iran. It's the 15th most populous state in the world.


92M vs 78M but ofc i'm not restricting the discussion to pop amount, Iran, as example, is on the edge of having nuclear power, is 5 times larger, has 3 times more military expanditure etc... And im talking about the Vietnam of today, not the one in the 60'.

Honestly, get your bases bombed, no one died, even trump is saying that all is fine on twitter - serious LOL -
And keep it low.
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Jan 8 2020 04:28pm
Quote (thesnipa @ 8 Jan 2020 23:04)
net loss, yes. massive net loss, idk.

impending conflict with Iran gives the US the ability to shift forces deployed in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc elsewhere to non-combat readiness roles. basically, we could use impending conflict as a way to pull out from other areas.

While I don't support wholesale pullouts and creating power vacuums, from the perspective some people have for non-interventionism this could be seen as a win given some outcomes.

Other than that in terms of real cost it's:

1. damages from the embassy attack
2. cost to kill the general
3. damages from retaliatory attacks on bases
4. deployment loses


pretty sure that fort bragg is neither in syria, iraq, nor in afghanistan. sending thousands of additional troops into the middle east would require some serious mental gymnastics to spin as win for 'non-interventionists'...

also, if you want to talk exclusively about the economic cost, i'd give you that the loss is probably not a 'massive' (i thought you didn't care about semantics?), but i made it clear in my post that this has obviously more than just direct economic costs (iran resuming their nuclear weapons program, terrorist recruitment...).

Quote (thesnipa @ 8 Jan 2020 23:04)
I don't see this as massive, at least not in the context of potential worst case scenarios. Also this is causing a counter narrative that congress should take back control and debate any potential conflict with Iran, which may spotlight illegal droning campaigns in Yemen. This Iran situation could actually result in less troops in active combat and increased oversight by the legislature. I wouldn't hold my breath, but it could at least further illustrate how much power the legislative branch has lost in terms of wars.


ah, i guess that's where our misunderstanding is. my argument was not status quo vs. worst case scenario, but situation now vs. situation before trump took office / soleimani assasination.
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Jan 8 2020 04:35pm
Quote (fender @ Jan 8 2020 04:28pm)
pretty sure that fort bragg is neither in syria, iraq, nor in afghanistan. sending thousands of additional troops into the middle east would require some serious mental gymnastics to spin as win for 'non-interventionists'...

also, if you want to talk exclusively about the economic cost, i'd give you that the loss is probably not a 'massive' (i thought you didn't care about semantics?), but i made it clear in my post that this has obviously more than just direct economic costs (iran resuming their nuclear weapons program, terrorist recruitment...).



ah, i guess that's where our misunderstanding is. my argument was not status quo vs. worst case scenario, but situation now vs. situation before trump took office / soleimani assasination.


i care about semantics, i just dont like semantic arguments where it's based on a judgement call. Like a semantic disagreement about a word is ok, but a semantic argument where its still very subjective just isn't productive. indeed, i was taking "massive" as a vs worst case scenario, which we both agree on is well outside of semantics in this context. this result is a sigh of relief, thusfar.

I personally think sending thousands of troops anywhere is a really bad thing. i just think that the context of combat vs readiness is extremely valid. and plays into the calculation of how much of a loss this is for the USA.

along those lines any time we're talking about a loss in any scenario we have to count ourselves extremely lucky when Trump plays fast and loose, assassinates a foreign govt official, talks shit on twitter, and we're not at war. that's the reason i was looking at this in the context of worst case in the first place, because with Trump you always weigh consequences against the worst case. he has a unique ability as POTUS compared to his recent peers to walk us directly into some serious bullshit. his lack of composure, his fast and loose social media presence, and his general lack of experience are a dangerous cocktail in these events. we're in a place right now where we're counting on Iran's restraint because we all recognize Trump has zero chill. its a fucking terrifying thought.

the only other point i'd say is that to the audience you're asking a question to "Iran resuming their nuclear program" isn't going to fly, because they believe Iran never halted that program.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Jan 8 2020 04:36pm
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Jan 8 2020 04:35pm
cnn: soleimani was invited by the iraqi primeminister to meet the saudi delegation to evaluate peace between both.

cheesy taste

today trump says: they dont need oil out of that region anymore
he said: we dig enough oil . we nr 1


here comes the boom :locked:

This post was edited by TriboreTheRevolutionary on Jan 8 2020 04:39pm
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Jan 8 2020 04:40pm
Quote (TriboreTheRevolutionary @ Jan 8 2020 05:35pm)
cnn: soleimani was invited by the iraqi primeminister to meet the saudi delegation to evaluate peace between both.

cheesy taste

today trump says: they dont need oil out of that region anymore
he said: we dig enough oil . we nr 1


here comes the boom :locked:


Peace there would be bad for business. Better to divide and keep conquered for sure.
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Jan 8 2020 04:46pm
Quote (Skinned @ 8 Jan 2020 23:40)
Peace there would be bad for business. Better to divide and keep conquered for sure.


saudis do buy 10% of the weapons the us build ?
they do
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Jan 8 2020 04:54pm
Quote (TriboreTheRevolutionary @ Jan 8 2020 04:35pm)
cnn: soleimani was invited by the iraqi primeminister to meet the saudi delegation to evaluate peace between both.

cheesy taste

today trump says: they dont need oil out of that region anymore
he said: we dig enough oil . we nr 1


here comes the boom :locked:


https://edition.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/us-iran-soleimani-tensions-live-intl-01-05-20/h_7c821d1eb7c75ce4b103f0e8020a35e1
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