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Apr 28 2020 12:56pm
Quote (zarkadon @ Apr 28 2020 06:55pm)
Starting on the 11th of May, the 51 provinces of Spain will begin 6+ week long route towards "the new normality".

This route, will be divided into several phases:

Phase 0: Our current phase. Lockdown, with some freedom (kids can go out, adults will be able to practice outdoor sport next week and go for walks)

Phase 1: Starting on 11/5, the provinces that are considered to be ready will graduate to phase 1. Small businesses will be able to open, but under strict sanitary conditions. Bars and small tourist hotels will be able to open under 30% capacity and keeping common areas closed. There will be a timeframe for exclusive use of senior citizens.

Phase 2: Once a province has been stable in phase 1 for at least two weeks, it will graduate to phase 2. Restaurants, cinemas, theaters, monuments, tourist attractions, etc... will be able to function, but at no more than 30% of their capacity.

Phase 3: Once a province has been stable in phase 2 for at least two weeks, it will graduate to phase 3. All businesses and landmarks will be able to function at 50% of its capacity. There will be no restriction to people's movement, but they will not be able to leave their province.



New Normality: Once ALL OF THE 51 PROVINCES are ready to graduate from phase 3, the New Normality will begin. People will be able to travel around the country without any kind of restriction. Specific health measures for businesses and common spaces will be issued as considered necessary by the government. Borders will open at some point (I expect there will be talks with Portugal to see if we can open at least that border during the summer).





There is a clear goal to be able to allow freedom of movement during the summer, as tourism is the most important part of our economy. We won't have foreign tourism this year, so intranational tourism is something the government will strongly push for.


It's crazy that adults and kids can't even go out of the house, that's a total overreach by the government. We can still go to work if it's 'necessary' and for exercise.

I've got a stag do in benidorm in September :cry:

This post was edited by dro94 on Apr 28 2020 12:56pm
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Apr 28 2020 01:19pm
Quote (dro94 @ 28 Apr 2020 20:56)
It's crazy that adults and kids can't even go out of the house, that's a total overreach by the government. We can still go to work if it's 'necessary' and for exercise.

I've got a stag do in benidorm in September :cry:


Ugh, with a bit of luck... maybe you'll be able to travel here... September is pretty far away after all... but I wouldn't bet on it right now.
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Apr 28 2020 03:47pm
Quote (zarkadon @ 28 Apr 2020 19:55)
Starting on the 11th of May, the 51 provinces of Spain will begin 6+ week long route towards "the new normality".

This route, will be divided into several phases:

Phase 0: Our current phase. Lockdown, with some freedom (kids can go out, adults will be able to practice outdoor sport next week and go for walks)

Phase 1: Starting on 11/5, the provinces that are considered to be ready will graduate to phase 1. Small businesses will be able to open, but under strict sanitary conditions. Bars and small tourist hotels will be able to open under 30% capacity and keeping common areas closed. There will be a timeframe for exclusive use of senior citizens.

Phase 2: Once a province has been stable in phase 1 for at least two weeks, it will graduate to phase 2. Restaurants, cinemas, theaters, monuments, tourist attractions, etc... will be able to function, but at no more than 30% of their capacity.

Phase 3: Once a province has been stable in phase 2 for at least two weeks, it will graduate to phase 3. All businesses and landmarks will be able to function at 50% of its capacity. There will be no restriction to people's movement, but they will not be able to leave their province.



New Normality: Once ALL OF THE 51 PROVINCES are ready to graduate from phase 3, the New Normality will begin. People will be able to travel around the country without any kind of restriction. Specific health measures for businesses and common spaces will be issued as considered necessary by the government. Borders will open at some point (I expect there will be talks with Portugal to see if we can open at least that border during the summer).





There is a clear goal to be able to allow freedom of movement during the summer, as tourism is the most important part of our economy. We won't have foreign tourism this year, so intranational tourism is something the government will strongly push for.


Talking about Benidorm:



Sorry, but even at 30% capacity, I dont see opening up places like THAT ending in anything but a catastrophe.

Regarding the new normality: do I understand this right: as long as a single one of the 51 provinces doesnt meet the standards yet, travel between all the other provinces will remain shut down too? :o
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Apr 28 2020 05:56pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 28 Apr 2020 23:47)
Talking about Benidorm:

https://cflvdg.avoz.es/sc/YSgIqX6nkc3KGz44kl4xcFnwwrg=/x/2018/09/13/00121536871802651105274/Foto/reu_20180802_134216752.jpg

Sorry, but even at 30% capacity, I dont see opening up places like THAT ending in anything but a catastrophe.

Regarding the new normality: do I understand this right: as long as a single one of the 51 provinces doesnt meet the standards yet, travel between all the other provinces will remain shut down too? :o


That's the plan, yes. But I guess that if there was just one or two provinces that become a problem and keep the rest of the country behind, the government will simply isolate those places.

Regarding Benidorm, keep in mind that the vast majority of tourists are foreigners, and they will not be able to travel. Regardless of the restriction of 30%, the amount of people there will probably be lower than that.
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Apr 28 2020 06:31pm
Quote (zarkadon @ 29 Apr 2020 01:56)
That's the plan, yes. But I guess that if there was just one or two provinces that become a problem and keep the rest of the country behind, the government will simply isolate those places.

Regarding Benidorm, keep in mind that the vast majority of tourists are foreigners, and they will not be able to travel. Regardless of the restriction of 30%, the amount of people there will probably be lower than that.


Eh, I wouldnt be so sure about that. For example, the government of Austria, another country with a big tourism sector, has already publicly mused about allowing foreign travellers from "countries which have made similar progress in their fight against the virus as us". Once the Spanish government realizes the full extent of the economic devastations that would be suffered if the entire Spanish tourism sector remains idle for the whole season, they imho will make concessions.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 28 2020 06:31pm
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Apr 29 2020 12:29pm
We've included deaths in care homes into our figures today, over 4000 deaths onto our total, taking us higher than Spain and probably Italy soon. Also, the government will include suspected coronavirus deaths where a test hasn't been performed post mortem.

The government have done the right thing including them in the figures now and ramping up testing massively, but we were too slow to act.

I'm still hopeful that the UK's potential for GDP recovery from this is higher than every other major Western nation. As an advanced service sector economy with only a very small manufacturing sector we have the highest percentage of jobs that can be worked from home and over 80% of our workforce is employed by large firms, which are far more likely to ride this out as they have larger cash reserves. Coupled with a surprisingly good fiscal response of paying 80% of furloughed employee's wages, freezing VAT, C tax and council rates payments I think we'll get through this OK. My only worry is with the transition period in the EU coming to an end in December we have no time to negotiate trade deals with the entire world...I sincerely hope the government's current refusal to extend the transition period is simply a negotiating tactic and not a serious policy.
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Apr 29 2020 04:32pm
Quote (dro94 @ 29 Apr 2020 20:29)
We've included deaths in care homes into our figures today, over 4000 deaths onto our total, taking us higher than Spain and probably Italy soon. Also, the government will include suspected coronavirus deaths where a test hasn't been performed post mortem.

The government have done the right thing including them in the figures now and ramping up testing massively, but we were too slow to act.

I'm still hopeful that the UK's potential for GDP recovery from this is higher than every other major Western nation. As an advanced service sector economy with only a very small manufacturing sector we have the highest percentage of jobs that can be worked from home and over 80% of our workforce is employed by large firms, which are far more likely to ride this out as they have larger cash reserves. Coupled with a surprisingly good fiscal response of paying 80% of furloughed employee's wages, freezing VAT, C tax and council rates payments I think we'll get through this OK. My only worry is with the transition period in the EU coming to an end in December we have no time to negotiate trade deals with the entire world...I sincerely hope the government's current refusal to extend the transition period is simply a negotiating tactic and not a serious policy.


Imho, it has to be extended by a year. There's just no way the exit modalities can be negotiated until the end of the year, and there's also no way that the UK or the EU could afford a chaotic, unprepared exit at a time when the whole world economy will still be on the ropes.


It's really a shame that your government fucked up the healthcare response so badly. If they had nailed it, plus nailed the economic response like they did, they might have come out of this crisis with a ton of momentum and goodwill from the people.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 29 2020 04:32pm
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Apr 29 2020 04:52pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 29 2020 11:32pm)
Imho, it has to be extended by a year. There's just no way the exit modalities can be negotiated until the end of the year, and there's also no way that the UK or the EU could afford a chaotic, unprepared exit at a time when the whole world economy will still be on the ropes.


It's really a shame that your government fucked up the healthcare response so badly. If they had nailed it, plus nailed the economic response like they did, they might have come out of this crisis with a ton of momentum and goodwill from the people.


I'm in the minority of people I think. A lot of people are totally fine with the government's response, there's a clear disconnect between people looking at it from the inside and those from abroad. The NHS never reached capacity, most of the dead are 75+ and many in care homes, cases spread out over the country (biggest hotspot is London with 25% of cases), plus the bbc coverage has been praising the government so much you'd be forgiven for thinking we were the DPRK; so the feeling of the country being overwhelmed just hasn't occurred.

Maybe the government isn't to blame and was just (correctly) following the bad advice of their top scientists. Maybe the virus is unstoppable and all countries will 'even out' in cases and deaths once testing and reporting converges worldwide, making all the lockdown measures pointless. No one can definitively say at this point, which is why the worst should be assumed and the best attempts to preserve life taken at the earliest possible stage...then alter course if the scientific evidence points to it.

This post was edited by dro94 on Apr 29 2020 04:53pm
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Apr 29 2020 04:59pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 28 Apr 2020 23:47)
Talking about Benidorm:

https://cflvdg.avoz.es/sc/YSgIqX6nkc3KGz44kl4xcFnwwrg=/x/2018/09/13/00121536871802651105274/Foto/reu_20180802_134216752.jpg

Sorry, but even at 30% capacity, I dont see opening up places like THAT ending in anything but a catastrophe.

Regarding the new normality: do I understand this right: as long as a single one of the 51 provinces doesnt meet the standards yet, travel between all the other provinces will remain shut down too? :o


Clubs, bars, dancing.... These are the real deal. Outdoor under the sun, not sure.
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Apr 29 2020 05:29pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ 30 Apr 2020 00:59)
Clubs, bars, dancing.... These are the real deal. Outdoor under the sun, not sure.


I cant imagine such an amount of young tourists in party-mood without clubs, bars, dancing - if the government officially orders all clubs and bars to stay shut, there will just be illegal underground clubs.

Quote (dro94 @ 30 Apr 2020 00:52)
I'm in the minority of people I think. A lot of people are totally fine with the government's response, there's a clear disconnect between people looking at it from the inside and those from abroad. The NHS never reached capacity, most of the dead are 75+ and many in care homes, cases spread out over the country (biggest hotspot is London with 25% of cases), plus the bbc coverage has been praising the government so much you'd be forgiven for thinking we were the DPRK; so the feeling of the country being overwhelmed just hasn't occurred.

Maybe the government isn't to blame and was just (correctly) following the bad advice of their top scientists. Maybe the virus is unstoppable and all countries will 'even out' in cases and deaths once testing and reporting converges worldwide, making all the lockdown measures pointless. No one can definitively say at this point, which is why the worst should be assumed and the best attempts to preserve life taken at the earliest possible stage...then alter course if the scientific evidence points to it.


It's kinda interesting to hear that the BBC is cheerleading for a populist Tory-government. But perhaps I'm just projecting the role that the public media is playing in other countries, like the US and Germany, onto the UK...
Or perhaps the BBC leadership has deliberately decided to boost morale in the current phase and they will go back to calling the government out for its mistakes once the country is out of the woods.
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