Above all, these predictions will come with YUUUUGE error bars.
The amount of uncertainty is simply overwhelming at the moment.

Best case scenario: most industrialized countries are able to reopen their economies in May and June. There is no second wave over the summer, and by the fall, efficient treatment is found that drastically reduces the mortality of hospitalized Covid-19 patients and also their average length of stay, so that the world can allow a much higher level of infections in fall and winter without having the healthcare system overwhelmed. By the end of the year, a vaccine is ready and starts being mass-produced in Q1/2021.

Worst case scenario: most industrialized countries try to reopen their economies in May and June, but it backfires badly and immediately. The second wave is so bad that everyone is forced to go into shutdown again. No treatment is found, hopeful vaccination options all turn out to be failures. It is found out that a large portion of those who were already sick did not develop immunity, instead, they can get infected and spread the virus again. By the end of June/July, the shutdowns have such immense economic effects that governments around the world are forced to make an impossible decision: either sacrifice millions of people and still have to deal with the mother of all economic crises, or keep up the shutdowns indefinitely and risk the total and utter annihilation of the economy, wealth and social order.



Both scenarios are unlikely, but not entirely far-fetched.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 26 2020 06:15pm

The fatalities relating to black and minority ethnic (BAME) groups are really high here, wondering if it's the same in your countries?

In NYC, it is the same story:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wealth-and-race-have-always-divided-new-york-covid-19-has-only-made-things-worse/

tldr: nonwhite districts tend to be poorer, the population living there tends to be more overweight and generally in worse health. They tend to have more low-paying service jobs that dont lend themselves to teleworking and require constant customer contact, so that the people living there are more exposed and prone to catching the virus. They also tend to have a higher share of multi-generation households, and to be more crowded. Furthermore, due to the lower income level, and perhaps also due to racial discrimination, medical care in these neighborhoods tends to be inferior (lower number of hospital bends and GPs per capita, and the ones that are there tend to be of lower quality).

It's not the same story, it looks far worse in the UK than anywhere else I've seen. 25 of the 26 doctors and 2/3rd's of NHS staff that have died from coronavirus were BAME, but only constitute 15% of the general population and 25% of NHS staff.

Britons are overweight generally, so I don't think this would be as much of a differential between ethnic groups. I'm also comparing NHS staff so the incomes would be the same or similar to their white counterparts.

There has been speculation about the role of type 2 diabetes, hypertension and cardiovascular disease being more prevalent in south asians and blacks, as well as the effect of living in crowded households.

This post was edited by dro94 on Apr 28 2020 04:45am

Ofc the rich bourgeois, staying safely at home, are getting their food delivery from these people. Drive is more exciting tho.
Everything goes into this direction, follow the GINI index x ethnic diversity. Africa, North Africa, East Europe... Like... incarceration rate. Stupid.

Most doctors and nurses work in hospitals near their home. If BAME-heavy communities are hit harder for the various reasons I outlined above, then the BAME-leaning NHS staff in the hospitals in these badly affected neighborhoods is much more exposed to the virus than staff working in lightly-affected hospitals in all-white areas.

Yes this disease is targeting people of color disproportionately due to our socioeconomic inequalities and space itself being so expensive.

No idea, I haven't found any statistics where different ethnic groups are differentiated... race isn't something that is usually taken into account in statistics here.

Starting on the 11th of May, the 51 provinces of Spain will begin 6+ week long route towards "the new normality".

This route, will be divided into several phases:

Phase 0: Our current phase. Lockdown, with some freedom (kids can go out, adults will be able to practice outdoor sport next week and go for walks)

Phase 1: Starting on 11/5, the provinces that are considered to be ready will graduate to phase 1. Small businesses will be able to open, but under strict sanitary conditions. Bars and small tourist hotels will be able to open under 30% capacity and keeping common areas closed. There will be a timeframe for exclusive use of senior citizens.

Phase 2: Once a province has been stable in phase 1 for at least two weeks, it will graduate to phase 2. Restaurants, cinemas, theaters, monuments, tourist attractions, etc... will be able to function, but at no more than 30% of their capacity.

Phase 3: Once a province has been stable in phase 2 for at least two weeks, it will graduate to phase 3. All businesses and landmarks will be able to function at 50% of its capacity. There will be no restriction to people's movement, but they will not be able to leave their province.



New Normality: Once ALL OF THE 51 PROVINCES are ready to graduate from phase 3, the New Normality will begin. People will be able to travel around the country without any kind of restriction. Specific health measures for businesses and common spaces will be issued as considered necessary by the government. Borders will open at some point (I expect there will be talks with Portugal to see if we can open at least that border during the summer).





There is a clear goal to be able to allow freedom of movement during the summer, as tourism is the most important part of our economy. We won't have foreign tourism this year, so intranational tourism is something the government will strongly push for.