Quote (thundercock @ 14 Nov 2020 00:48)
I think everyone said that the Wisconsin poll was an outlier. They probably interviewed the one rural trans-faggot in Wisconsin and his voice spoke for all the poor whites there.
There were a lot of these outlier polls from highly rated pollsters though. B+ rated Quinnipiac had Biden up 11 in Florida and 13 in Pennsylvania. Lots of media and university polls had him up nationally by 10-12 points in mid-October.
Another factor we should not overlook is that we underestimate the magnitude of the polling error if we just go by the polling averages. These averages were skewed in Trump's favor by methodologically crappy polls from Trafalgar and Rasmussen who just have a generic Republican bias in them.
There polls made wild guesses which, by chance, fell in the right direction. That's like me claiming that the expected value of a dice roll is 6, then someone rolls a dice, and it indeed comes up with a 6. In that case, I predicted the correct result of a random event, but my prediction was nonetheless crappy. That's what happened here with Trafalgar and Rasmussen.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 13 2020 09:19pm