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Apr 15 2020 04:01pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ 15 Apr 2020 23:58)
This amount exist because they added the non-hospital deaths which are added few days.
I would also remind to that many countries are not adding these people, France is playing the transparency card.

You are both wrong.


Interesting, thank you.
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Apr 15 2020 04:13pm
Quote (zarkadon @ Apr 15 2020 10:54pm)
Schools in Spain will open in late June and July for "voluntary intensive classes" to try to reinforce what has been taught and prepare students for the following year.

It will be considered the third trimester, and everyone will pass it. In years where there are final exams, there will be a test at the end that will only serve to raise that trimester's score, for each subject. Students who end up with a final failed score (once all 3 trimesters are factored), will have to an extraordinary test in september, and pass it, in order to advance to the following year.

This applies to all school levels in elementary and secondary education, except for senior year, who will have to pass the third trimester as usual and, in the case the student wants to study in univeristy, pass the government's official pre-universitary test (it's called Selectividad, which works similarly to Abitur, A-levels, etc).


Curious as to why the schools opening in late June is a bigger story than the current relaxation of the lockdown? Seems too soon to send essential workers back into work considering the severity of the outbreak.
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Apr 15 2020 04:16pm
By the way, how is the political climate in your respetive countries?

Polls seem to show that governing political parties are gaining support, but this isn't the case according to our polls.

Also, our opposition seems a bit more aggressive than in other countries?

Centre-right progressive C's is willing to reach big nationwide agreements with the PSOE-UP government, but believes centre-left PSOE should dump alt-left UP in favour of a grand coallition with them and centre-right PP (the PSOE-UP coallition is a minority government, and would still be in minority if C's joined).

Centre-right to right-wing conservative PP refuses to make any major agreement with a government that has "only been loyal to communists and separatists", and unilaterally delayed their meeting with President Sánchez to the following week. They say they are willing to keep prolonging lock down and to reach minor agreements that they consider sensible, but that's it.

Alt-right party VOX refuses to engage in any sort of negotiation with the government.

Right-wing catalan separatist PDeCat is also attacking the government all the time and criticizing most initiatives. They've even ranted about receiving 1.714.000 masks from the government, which they claim is a mockery based on the number 1714 (the year the Spanish War of Succession ended, leading to a more centralized Spain)... such is their paranoia.

Right-wing basque nationalist party PNV is becoming more and more contrary with the government. They are upset about the shutdown of the industry, which is a key pillar in the basque economy. They also claim that the government is meddling with their autonomy, using the state of emergency to tell the basque healthcare system what to do.

The other regional parties, are for the most part either neutral or skeptic towards the government.
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Apr 15 2020 04:18pm
Quote (dro94 @ 16 Apr 2020 00:13)
Curious as to why the schools opening in late June is a bigger story than the current relaxation of the lockdown? Seems too soon to send essential workers back into work considering the severity of the outbreak.


I think it's only the last week of June.

idk if it will be even possible, but that's the plan for now. In any case it will be voluntary.
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Apr 16 2020 12:56am
Quote (zarkadon @ 16 Apr 2020 00:16)
By the way, how is the political climate in your respetive countries?

Polls seem to show that governing political parties are gaining support, but this isn't the case according to our polls.

Also, our opposition seems a bit more aggressive than in other countries?

Centre-right progressive C's is willing to reach big nationwide agreements with the PSOE-UP government, but believes centre-left PSOE should dump alt-left UP in favour of a grand coallition with them and centre-right PP (the PSOE-UP coallition is a minority government, and would still be in minority if C's joined).

Centre-right to right-wing conservative PP refuses to make any major agreement with a government that has "only been loyal to communists and separatists", and unilaterally delayed their meeting with President Sánchez to the following week. They say they are willing to keep prolonging lock down and to reach minor agreements that they consider sensible, but that's it.

Alt-right party VOX refuses to engage in any sort of negotiation with the government.

Right-wing catalan separatist PDeCat is also attacking the government all the time and criticizing most initiatives. They've even ranted about receiving 1.714.000 masks from the government, which they claim is a mockery based on the number 1714 (the year the Spanish War of Succession ended, leading to a more centralized Spain)... such is their paranoia.

Right-wing basque nationalist party PNV is becoming more and more contrary with the government. They are upset about the shutdown of the industry, which is a key pillar in the basque economy. They also claim that the government is meddling with their autonomy, using the state of emergency to tell the basque healthcare system what to do.

The other regional parties, are for the most part either neutral or skeptic towards the government.



Jesus, Spanish regionalism and separatism is such a mess. As if your country needed even more division in a situation like this. :rolleyes:


Here in Germany, the governing grand coalition (between Merkel's center-right CDU and the center left social-democrats SPD) has gained in the polls while all 4 opposition parties have lost ground. The gains have mostly gone to the CDU, which is holding most ministries at the federal level which are key for this crisis, as well as the regional prime ministers (effectively governors of their federal states) which had the largest influence on the public discourse and the health measures taken. By comparison, the SPD has only gained modestly.

All opposition parties are willing to work with the government on the corona situation, but a time of crisis is naturally the time of the executive. Currently, they lack the ability to cut through with their topics. The Greens, which were polling super well, at around 22%, before this crisis, have now fallen down to ~16%. The right-wing populist AfD has fallen down from 14% to ~10%. Over recent years, the CDU had lost a lot of voters to both these parties. It seems as if the CDU's good handling of the coronavirus has - at least temporarily - brought back some of the voters who had left the CDU for the Greens over the climate or for the AfD over the refugee/immigration politics.

However, none of the topics which were dominating German politics before the crisis (climate, refugees, social justice, fixing our pension system, how to modernize our economy) are gone or solved. And the old debate about eurobonds and public debt in the eurozone will come back with force too, once the immediate health crisis is under control.

Therefore, I expect our governing parties to lose ground in the long run. There were some missteps in the government's handling of the coronavirus, which will also be talked about when it's over - it's just that Germany responded better than many of our surrounding neighbors, and that we got lucky in some regard, leading to the health situation staying under control and much less severe than in Spain/France/Italy. This makes our government look good at the moment, as reflected in their polling numbers, but they were far from flawless.
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Apr 16 2020 02:47am
Quote (dro94 @ 16 Apr 2020 00:13)
Curious as to why the schools opening in late June is a bigger story than the current relaxation of the lockdown? Seems too soon to send essential workers back into work considering the severity of the outbreak.


I was tired last night, and failed to read your post properly.

The lockdown has barely relaxed. It's just that the industry and agriculture are able to operate again because the economy simply can't handle the complete lock down any further.

Not that many more people are working. The minimum amount of people possible are in facilities. People are taking turns and keeping distances.

Keep in mind that these businesses were only shut down for two weeks because the government made them give their workers forced vacations (companies can choose the dates to up to 10 days of the worker's annual minimum of 20 days of vacation, so they all forced the vacations now on their workers)... that way the government didn't have to pay compensation.

The service sector, which is the main part of our economy, is pretty much completely dead.



Quote (Black XistenZ @ 16 Apr 2020 08:56)
Jesus, Spanish regionalism and separatism is such a mess. As if your country needed even more division in a situation like this. :rolleyes:


Here in Germany, the governing grand coalition (between Merkel's center-right CDU and the center left social-democrats SPD) has gained in the polls while all 4 opposition parties have lost ground. The gains have mostly gone to the CDU, which is holding most ministries at the federal level which are key for this crisis, as well as the regional prime ministers (effectively governors of their federal states) which had the largest influence on the public discourse and the health measures taken. By comparison, the SPD has only gained modestly.

All opposition parties are willing to work with the government on the corona situation, but a time of crisis is naturally the time of the executive. Currently, they lack the ability to cut through with their topics. The Greens, which were polling super well, at around 22%, before this crisis, have now fallen down to ~16%. The right-wing populist AfD has fallen down from 14% to ~10%. Over recent years, the CDU had lost a lot of voters to both these parties. It seems as if the CDU's good handling of the coronavirus has - at least temporarily - brought back some of the voters who had left the CDU for the Greens over the climate or for the AfD over the refugee/immigration politics.

However, none of the topics which were dominating German politics before the crisis (climate, refugees, social justice, fixing our pension system, how to modernize our economy) are gone or solved. And the old debate about eurobonds and public debt in the eurozone will come back with force too, once the immediate health crisis is under control.

Therefore, I expect our governing parties to lose ground in the long run. There were some missteps in the government's handling of the coronavirus, which will also be talked about when it's over - it's just that Germany responded better than many of our surrounding neighbors, and that we got lucky in some regard, leading to the health situation staying under control and much less severe than in Spain/France/Italy. This makes our government look good at the moment, as reflected in their polling numbers, but they were far from flawless.


I see, thanks for the input. I expect there will be all kinds of shits in polling in most countries as the focus shifts from subject to subject. Right now, the immediate concern is indeed the outbreak... later it will be the economy, and how to reorganize society. And later it will all depend on how the previous stages went. Elections are very far away here, so the current polling climate doesn't mean much.

This post was edited by zarkadon on Apr 16 2020 02:49am
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Apr 16 2020 03:33am
Quote (zarkadon @ 16 Apr 2020 10:47)
I see, thanks for the input. I expect there will be all kinds of shits in polling in most countries as the focus shifts from subject to subject. Right now, the immediate concern is indeed the outbreak... later it will be the economy, and how to reorganize society. And later it will all depend on how the previous stages went. Elections are very far away here, so the current polling climate doesn't mean much.


Well, you said that your current government is a minority coalition, so couldnt the opposition overthrow them at any moment if they work together? Not that that would be a good idea right now, just saying...

What I'm curious about with respect to Spain: it doesnt look like there will be much tourism this summer - wont this completely fuck your economy over?


Regarding the situation in Germany: the only election left on the calendar in 2020 is one municipal election in september, but in 2021, we have the next federal election (Bundestag, indirectly also determining the next chancellor, scheduled in fall) plus 5 state elections. So to me it seems unlikely that the CDU or SPD can maintain their current polling high until then. It's highly unclear which topics will dominate by then. It might be unemployment and the economy, but it could also go back to climate change or refugees. Or it could also turn out to be a throwback to the 2013 election and be dominated by the eurozone debt crisis, and the larger question of whether Germany wants the EU to develop into a confederation of independent states, or into something akin to 'United States of Europe'.

In the short term, Germany looks very stable, but in the medium term, I see a ton of political volatility and uncertainty.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 16 2020 03:34am
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Apr 16 2020 07:37am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 16 Apr 2020 11:33)
Well, you said that your current government is a minority coalition, so couldnt the opposition overthrow them at any moment if they work together? Not that that would be a good idea right now, just saying...

What I'm curious about with respect to Spain: it doesnt look like there will be much tourism this summer - wont this completely fuck your economy over?


Regarding the situation in Germany: the only election left on the calendar in 2020 is one municipal election in september, but in 2021, we have the next federal election (Bundestag, indirectly also determining the next chancellor, scheduled in fall) plus 5 state elections. So to me it seems unlikely that the CDU or SPD can maintain their current polling high until then. It's highly unclear which topics will dominate by then. It might be unemployment and the economy, but it could also go back to climate change or refugees. Or it could also turn out to be a throwback to the 2013 election and be dominated by the eurozone debt crisis, and the larger question of whether Germany wants the EU to develop into a confederation of independent states, or into something akin to 'United States of Europe'.

In the short term, Germany looks very stable, but in the medium term, I see a ton of political volatility and uncertainty.


PSOE-UP is a minority government, but they are close enough to a majority to make any alternative government nonviable. Catalan and Basque separatists are completely incompatible with PP and C's, let alone VOX. Right wing basque nationalist PNV might be barely compatible with PP (they have cooperated on several occasions in the past), and other regionalist parties might be too, but never with VOX. The catalan separatist strategy is mostly based around the idea of bringing chaos to Spain, and then blame all the negative impact Catalonia receives on whatever policies the national government implements. Their speaker in parliament openly admitted "not giving a damn" about Spain's future, governance or stability.

And yes, we're very much screwed in an economic sense. Over 70% of our economy is based on services, which is almost completely shut down right now, and over a fifth of that is directly dependent on tourism. And note I'm talking about directly dependant... that's not including stuff like restuarants, shops, etc that will have a lot less customers due to the lack o tourism.

We will somehow pull it off, because there is no alternative, but we will inevitably need external help at some point or it's going to be a massive shitshow for several years until we can completely recover from the huge blow this year is going to be.
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Apr 16 2020 10:33am
:lol:

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Apr 16 2020 10:41am
Quote (dro94 @ 16 Apr 2020 18:33)


lol
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