Unless Biden gets put in a care home before November he's winning the election.

THERES STILL SPACE!!
lol@ “it’s CNN fault”. Yea like trumpets watch CNN

Hillary will win in a landslide too

And Bernie can still win

Eh. I wouldn't say that.

I of course don't want to say Trump will 100% win, but I think Trump will.

Cancel culture is hated by a lot of people. Most people attribute cancel culture to the left/Democrats. Add in the riots in Democratic cities. When most people what more for security and protection - they tend to vote Republican, they're typically the more Pro Law Enforcement party, they're more attributed to law and order.

Additionally, if Biden debates Trump, he will get destroyed. Plus, add in that Biden has pissed off a significant number of black voters.

This post was edited by GLYC123 on Jun 20 2020 07:19pm

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/trump-rally-speech-tonight-coronavirus-testing-tulsa-covid-19-a9577576.html

Lol... Just.. Wow.

If you asked me 6 months ago who's going to win I'd say Trump, but things have changed.

Voter turnout is going to be higher in November than 2016, which benefits Biden. Many people were indifferent between Hillary, a career politician who never resonated with people, and Trump, who was a populist maverick.

Unemployment will still be very high compared to historic levels in November due to structural changes in the economy from Coronavirus, which will benefit the Democrats.

Coronavirus is also hitting Republican states and less urbanised areas much harder now than in the initial wave, which is coinciding with a drop in Trump's approval rating.

BLM protests have extremely high support among POC and Trump has alienated the vast majority of them with his statements regarding the protestors, so I'd also anticipate black voter turnout to be very high in November.

- Biden is also a career politician who doesnt really resonate with people.

- Unemployment doesnt necessarily have to benefit Democrats. The economy is still the issue where voters trust Trump the most, relative to other issues, and where Republicans in general have an edge over Dems. Furthermore, Trump's emphasis on the economy during corona while the Dems were arguing for longer shutdowns will be remembered when unemployed voters go to the polls in November. And last but not least, several studies of the 2016 election found Trump doing better in struggling communities and underperforming in boom regions. This doesnt have to translate to 2020 where he is the incumbent, but it's still interesting.

- Trump's recent drop in approval rating is a response to the George Floyd and BLM protests, not so much a reaction to the recent surge of coronavirus cases in red states. His approval rating started going down a few days after George Floyd's murder (typical poll delay), while corona surge only came 1-3 weeks later, after his numbers were already on a downward trajectory.

- BLM protests, to the extent they're accompanied by violence and looting, might boost GOP turnout too.


I agree that Trump is not in a good spot right now and would lose decisively if the election took place this Tuesday, and the environment (corona crisis, BLM protests) is to his detriment - but the fundamentals imho are not AS stacked against him as you think.

I disagree with equating Biden and Hillary when she was a woman with numerous scandals dogging her during the election cycle. Biden has sexual assault claims against him, but I don't see it impacting on anything because people can't logically choose Trump over Biden due to their treatment of women when Trump is just as guilty.

All the people that voted Democrat last time will do so again. Maybe only 90% of Republicans will vote for Trump again. These differences matter, there is no chance Biden does worse than Hillary barring a total mental breakdown.

I'm not so sure about that. There probably were some Nevertrump Republicans who reluctantly voted for Hillary last time, but will sit this one out, given the leftward shift of the Democratic platform over the last 4 years. And there probably were quite some voters who fit the Obama-Trump profile, but reluctantly stuck with Hillary and their partisan identity last time. On top of that, the looting and violence seen during these protests might bring some prototypical Romney-Clinton type upscale suburbanites back to Trump, dampening his erosion in the suburbs a bit. And at least before corona and the protests, there were some indications that Trump was making (modest) inroads with minority men.

And keep in mind that Trump will most definitely have the advantage in the electoral college again. Going according to early polls, his EC edge might even have gotten bigger since 2016. He might well lose the popular vote by 3-4% and still eke out an EC win.