Sabato's Crystal Ball published an article today which makes the same points I was already posting here two days ago: that Biden's win in th EC was far more dicey than the topline numbers of the election suggest.
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-the-2020-election/Quote
We (and others) frequently noted the past four years that Donald Trump’s 2016 victory was built on the strength of a roughly 78,000-vote edge in three key states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Flipping those states, which were Trump’s three-closest victories, to Hillary Clinton would have given her an Electoral College majority.
This time, Biden’s fate was in the hands of four states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia, that were collectively decided by about 97,000 votes (that number will change, and Biden’s edge at least in Pennsylvania should continue to expand while Arizona has gotten closer in later-counted returns). Give these four states to Trump, and Trump wins. However, it’s actually more complicated than that, and Biden’s actual edge in the decisive states is really even narrower.
If one gave Biden all but his three closest states (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin), he would have been stuck in a 269-269 Electoral College tie with Trump. [...] we can say with a bit more confidence that a 269-269 tie would have gone to Trump.
Biden’s victory therefore belongs to his narrow margins in just Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin — a combined 47,000 votes or so as of Wednesday morning. Flip these states to Trump, and there is a 269-269 tie that Trump likely wins in the House.
By that token, Biden’s victory in 2020 was even smaller than Trump’s in 2016, even though Biden will easily win the popular vote after Trump lost it by two points.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 12 2020 01:51pm