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May 5 2020 02:01pm
Quote (Goomshill @ May 5 2020 03:50pm)
I'd refer you to the CDC's excess death reporting:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

if you examine the data, its clear that the excess death toll is estimated around 61k (now 66k), but that is entirely the product of estimated numbers of unreported deaths during the lag time as it takes ~8+ weeks for deaths to be accounted. Without weighting for underreporting, the excess death toll drops from 66k to 12k, and we won't know where the truth actually shakes out for some time. There's reasonable explanations that could lead to either the the estimate being high or low, even if the deaths to the disease is kept constant. Perhaps the alertness and prompt focus on medical attention and reporting is causing deaths to be reported to the feds much sooner, in which case the estimate is too high. Maybe everyone sheltering in place and locking themselves up and cutting off social contact will lead to many unreported deaths of those living alone, in which case the estimate is too low.

What I can say for sure, is that nobody should be sure whether that 66k figure is accurate. Its an estimate based on weighting the numbers, not reported deaths. The real national numbers can be higher or lower than it. And in some cases like when New York City was reporting 10,000 coronavirus deaths in a span with only 3,000 excess deaths, its very clear their numbers were wrong.


Do you agree with what EndlessSky said in post #4588?

Quote (EndlessSky @ May 5 2020 03:31pm)
Both opinions can be true at once. The deaths are higher and more underreported in Democrat states.


Do you think that the true Apr30 death count is both higher than 61k and lower than 61k?

If not, do you believe that it was higher, lower or about the same as 61k?

This post was edited by Kayeto on May 5 2020 02:03pm
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May 5 2020 02:38pm
Quote (Kayeto @ May 5 2020 03:40pm)
"Reported number is question was 61k deaths as of April 30"

That's a national count. Do you think that the real national number can be both higher and lower than 61k?


Some states overreport and some states underreport...
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May 5 2020 02:43pm
Quote (EndlessSky @ May 5 2020 04:38pm)
Some states overreport and some states underreport...


So, considering the various reasons for miscounting and tabulating them altogether, do you think they add up to a national count that was higher or lower than 61k on Apr30?

was it both higher and lower?
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May 5 2020 02:45pm
Quote (Kayeto @ May 5 2020 04:43pm)
So, considering the various reasons for miscounting and tabulating them altogether, do you think they add up to a national count that was higher or lower than 61k on Apr30?

was it both higher and lower?


The cities are probably wildly underreporting, so overall I would vote undercounted.
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May 5 2020 02:46pm
Quote (EndlessSky @ May 5 2020 04:45pm)
The cities are probably wildly underreporting, so overall I would vote undercounted.


cool. That's the question that the survey was asking people.
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May 5 2020 02:56pm
Deaths for US 4 august: 95 to 242k (134k median)

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
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May 5 2020 07:25pm
Sounds like infection parties going on in rural Washington
GG
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May 5 2020 08:20pm
Quote (theCrossbones @ 6 May 2020 03:25)
Sounds like infection parties going on in rural Washington
GG


If they are all young and healthy and self-isolate for 2 weeks afterwards, that's actually helpful. That's an unrealistically big "if" though, but still.... if pulled off in responsible and controlled fashion, this approach might not be all that bad.
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May 5 2020 09:57pm
Has anyone mentioned how dumb closing schools is yet?

Not a single case of child to adult transmission has ever been seen yet.
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