Quote (Goomshill @ May 5 2020 03:50pm)
I'd refer you to the CDC's excess death reporting:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htmif you examine the data, its clear that the excess death toll is
estimated around 61k (now 66k), but that is entirely the product of estimated numbers of unreported deaths during the lag time as it takes ~8+ weeks for deaths to be accounted. Without weighting for underreporting, the excess death toll drops from 66k to 12k, and we won't know where the truth actually shakes out for some time. There's reasonable explanations that could lead to either the the estimate being high or low, even if the deaths to the disease is kept constant. Perhaps the alertness and prompt focus on medical attention and reporting is causing deaths to be reported to the feds much sooner, in which case the estimate is too high. Maybe everyone sheltering in place and locking themselves up and cutting off social contact will lead to many unreported deaths of those living alone, in which case the estimate is too low.
What I can say for sure, is that nobody should be
sure whether that 66k figure is accurate. Its an estimate based on weighting the numbers, not reported deaths. The real national numbers can be higher or lower than it. And in some cases like when New York City was reporting 10,000 coronavirus deaths in a span with only 3,000 excess deaths, its very clear their numbers were wrong.
Do you agree with what EndlessSky said in post #4588?
Quote (EndlessSky @ May 5 2020 03:31pm)
Both opinions can be true at once. The deaths are higher and more underreported in Democrat states.
Do you think that the true Apr30 death count is both higher than 61k and lower than 61k?
If not, do you believe that it was higher, lower or about the same as 61k?
This post was edited by Kayeto on May 5 2020 02:03pm