Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 17 2020 11:16pm)
You're confounding the polls with the win probability that journalists deduced from them. Those were horribly off. The polls themselves were only about 2% off nationally, but missed Trump's advantage in the electoral college.
And keep in mind that he only eked out a narrow win by a 0.7% margin in the electoral college tipping point state.
So yes, the polls might be slightly off again, plus Trump will probably have an advantage in the EC again. But those are small-ish advantages. Should Biden still lead by an average of 8% in October, it's very unlikely for Trump to win.
Moreover, your pic implied that Trump not only has the same standing as in 2016 (win probability of around 30%), no, it implied that he'd win in a landslide. And I just dont see that happening with the way both the coronavirus and the recent protests are very bad for him.
On the surface it might seem that way, but I don't think it's that bad at all. If the CV and riots are bad for Trump there would be no need for the Dems to be using Bolton to try to set up yet another impeachment attempt.
I think we need to keep in mind, that the left pretty much owns the media, and a serious amount of district judges. They also have a fairly large supply of disgruntled former Trump employees.
Lastly, a lot of folk are convinced that Trump's base are idiots. They aren't. They don't make much noise, but they will vote on November 3rd. Just because some Americans might use slang, or wear overalls, doesn't mean they don't see and think as well.
The Dems are still using a decades old playbook. Because of the internet, it's much harder to control information these days.
Like that old saying... "you can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time". It doesn't help the Dems cause thinking that Trump's base are nothing but illiterate farmers.
In the US, it's the ones that don't make the noise, that ya have to worry about.