Quote (Goomshill @ 19 Aug 2024 15:36)
Biden won in 2020 by hiding in a basement, having 2 total public appearances and taking almost zero questions or scrutiny for his whole race, a non-existent campaign relying entirely on the media to carry him to power on anti-trump storylines.
This worked because people always take out their dissatisfaction on the incumbent, and covid had blindsided Trump, so all Biden needed to do was get out of the way.
Can Kamala actually campaign on being "not biden" when the public is universally dissatisfied with the.... Biden/Harris administration?
It defies conventional logic, and defies basic logic, but its also completely unprecedented waters. We've never had an incumbent rudely thrown off a rooftop like they wish they had done with Jimmy Carter. Its clearly a gamble, but it absolutely relies on Kamala avoiding policy for the rest of this campaign and trying to hide in a bunker like Biden did, because every time she opens her mouth all people are going to think about is Biden
In 2020, you had the worst health crisis in a century plus the worst race riots in three decades. And said health crisis also shredded the great economy which had been Trump's strongest argument for reelection. And it gave Biden cover for his basement campaign. Aaand Biden was actually the right guy for playing the role of "generic Democrat who will restore normalcy and otherwise won't rock the boat too much".
Trump was the incumbent, the onus of solving the country's problems was on him. This time around, the roles are reversed. Biden/Harris is the incumbent administration, the onus for solving the country's problems is on them, and they're failing at it just as much as Trump was failing in 2020. Moreover, Trump is really bolstered by the benefit of hindsight. His foreign policy seems a lot more successful, now that we've experienced the utter mess that Biden created. His pre-covid economy contrasts very favorably with Biden's. As does his handling of the border.
Even if Kamala isn't Biden, she is too entangled with his admin and its track record. Hence, I see no way for Kamala to win this race if it turns into a "change election" focused on policy and track records. Her best, and probably only, hope is to turn it into a "choice election" between two different personalities. If Trump doesn't see this, or doesn't listen to his advisors who are surely telling him the same thing, then he deserves to lose.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 19 2024 08:32am