Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 10 2020 07:23pm)
I think this one's really easy to explain for the House: Republicans have the slightly more efficiently distributed coalition, they narrowly win the House while losing the national popular vote by 2.1% (2016), they get blown out in a D+8.6 environment (2018) and they lose the House, but by a far smaller number of seats, when the margin falls between that, say in a D+5 year (2020).
Also note that Biden's win was NOT comfortable. He won the tipping point states by margins of about 0.5-0.7%. In the end, a total of just 40k votes in Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia will have separated Trump from reelection.
You shouldn't have these sort of insights while not being American. Get a better hobby dude.
Is 40k a projection of where the vote totals are going to be? Cause totals look higher right now in those states.
I don't really care about the messaging... Biden is on track to win in the EC by the same margin as Trump did in 2016, and he's on track to win by a popular vote percentage margin not seen since FDR(if my twitter brethren are correct). If we subtract the smallest state perhaps his "beat Trump by x votes in 3 states" is different.