Which is why you run a positive and negative control in each batch.

PCR is not exactly a new diagnostic testing method lol

How many threshold cycles, you fuckup?

Changing the cycle number doesnt invalidate the test you dumbass. You're just repeating a talking point with no knowledge of the material

Irrelevant when the point of my argument is the lack of a trend reversal. No matter the absolute scale or the amount of testing (as long as there is any and its rate remains roughly constant), a surge in actual infections would translate to a visible a surge of detected cases.

Its spring, vaccine is being distributed, and were probably at 33% infections nationwide.

We can probably open back up until either july or october depending on cases

So, you agree with the decision by Abbott to fully open up Texas?

By the way, why do you phrase it as "open back up until october"? If the whole country is vaccinated by the end of, let's say, June - which seems very likely at the current rate - why would things be closed down again in fall?

I am not assuming total vaccine distribution by October. If we have near total vaccine distribution by then, then we will likely only have to shut down small areas in response to specific outbreaks, similar to how we occasionally have a measles flare-up in response to large unvaccinated communities.

We should probably keep mask mandates in effect because the cost is basically nothing next to the benefit.

Abbott is an idiot. I think we can largely open the country back up, but he took forever to implement even the most basic measures. Any agreement with him is purely coincidental.

Well, it depends on your definition of "total".
I would assume that something like 90% of the adult and 75% of the overall population will have been offered a vaccine by October. It should go without saying that there will be no regard for those who refuse this vaccination offer.


And how long do you want to keep mask mandates? Until the entire global population has been vaccinated (i.e. 3-6 years)? Indefinitely?


That's fair.

I have no issue with keeping mask mandates indefinitely, but that's a personal thing. I'm not exactly going to advocate that we have strong enforcement measures for it or anything like that. America is stubborn after all. I think we should probably use this as a springboard to get people to wash their damn hands and sanitize surfaces more often.

This will not be the only pandemic of our lifetimes, and with the increasing rate of deforestation and whatnot it might not even be the only one this century. Keeping the public on their toes about hygiene and keeping masks in the public eye is a good way to have a swift response when the next one comes around. If this pandemic has taught us one thing, it's that early measures pay dividends. The countries that locked down early and used that early lockdown to implement contact tracing, testing, etc. faired far better. Having a more compliant populace will similarly pay dividends.

As for numbers on when we might need to shut back down, that's for the experts to recommend based on evidence. I've heard 75% floated, but that will depend on how prominent these new strains are in October, and if we have any evidence of waning immunity in the population, or evidence of significant mutations that cause loss of immunity.

the lack of an immediate visible trend reversal, based on data that is significantly worse due to poor testing, is the weakest possible "point" you can somewhat reasonably make though, 19 days after the policy change. let's hope businesses keep defying abbott and insist on mask wearing, and that biden's vaccination campaign as well as warmer seasons can beat the GQP's anti-science rhetoric...