For Brexit the scenario is a two step strategy for BJ: 1/lose (agreement rejected) 2/win (new elections for which he has some arguments aka: "i tried, i'm active")
Basically there's still no Brexit... Could end up in a no-clear-majority leadership, only real "winner" being the EU cause.

It's interesting because despite significant opposition, most notably from their own allies in the DUP, if the deal isn't passed through parliament there probably isn't enough time to process an extension to the Brexit deadline. BoJo could convince MPs on the fence to vote for the deal to avoid a no deal.

It would be a large victory, for years, for Tories & B.J if this "deal" is voted. I doubt Corbyn & associated want that.
Not to mention we have no info on this deal, is it really worse than T.May deal ?



General elections again, this is what we could have. Or a referendum on B.J deal, but i doubt he agrees

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Oct 17 2019 04:40pm

Agreed.

The main differences between this deal and May's back then is that there is no backstop, and that there is no customs union.
In short, the deal presented now is substantially "harder" (in the sense of the soft vs hard brexit dichotomy) than May's, and doesnt involve the backstop trap which would have given the EU the unilateral power to prevent the UK from ever truly cutting ties with them.


I think this deal right here is the best compromise both sides can come up with. It wont get any better than that. Let's hope the Commons accepts it and we can finally close this sad chapter.



blabla, he's just trying to artificially create pressure so that the UK Parliament accepts the deal. everyone knows that far too much is at stake here to let everything blow up because of a deadline, because of an extension of maybe 1-2 weeks.
unless the House of Commons soundly rejects this deal too, a short-term extension will be granted if necessary.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 17 2019 05:14pm

So just to make sure I understand this...

October 31st is the deadline to have anything except a total Brexit, and there's a "harder" deal going to the U.K. legislature than previously, but if they don't accept it they're gonna have a total Brexit for better or worse (let's be honest, it's for worse).

what about the Benn amendment that forces BoJo to file for an extension of the brexit deadline if a deal cant be struck in time to avoid a hard brexit by oct31?
if he presented a deal that the EU accepts, like he just did, and this deal was then shot down by the Parliament itself, would this Benn amendment still tie his hands in that case, or would a true hard brexit on oct31 really come into play again in that scenario?

October 31st is the deadline for the UK and EU to legally agree a withdrawal agreement for leaving the EU. If this is agreed by the deadline, the UK and EU can move to the next stage of talks known as the 'transition period' regarding the actual trade deal they want to negotiate as well as the UK negotiating with other countries. During this time the UK would still technically be within the EU and their customs union. I believe in the newly proposed deal the transition period would end in early 2021.

If the deal doesn't pass through UK's parliament the withdrawal agreement is void, as is the transition period, meaning the UK will leave the EU after the October 31st deadline if no extension is legally requested by the UK and accepted by the EU.

You'll have to explain what you mean by 'total brexit', but my interpretation of that is you mean a 'hard' or 'clean break' brexit. BoJo's deal is more of a clean break from the EU than May's deal. If BoJo's deal doesn't pass through parliament and no extension is granted, we'll leave without a deal. A no deal scenario would likely be significantly worse than a deal or remaining in the EU according to every respected economist on the planet, not only because of the tariff implications and regulatory chaos, but we'd still need to negotiate a trade deal with the EU. Therefore, the propagation of no deal being a 'clean break' from the EU is completely false.



The government are looking to get around the Benn act by arguing the deal brought to parliament is by default an act of extension so in the event of a failing to pass through the deal there would be no obligation on the government's part to seek an extension.

Now that's obviously bullshit and will get slapped down by the courts, but how long will it take to do so? By following tactics of obfuscation, Johnson's government could bide enough time to make an extension improbable even in the event they are forced to ask for one.

This post was edited by dro94 on Oct 18 2019 01:17pm

would the deal include all of the criteria to be followed in the 'transitional period'? or will there be further squabbling about what has to happen from 2019-2021 even after parliament votes on it? i would assume the 'deal' has all the architecture of the 'transition' but with how it's gone down thusfar i just get more and more confused.

No idea, and yeah, it's confusing as fuck. I would assume that even many Brits cant really wrap their head around this clusterfuck.

The one thing that would be clear if this deal passes through parliament is that there would be a transition period during which everything goes on as normal on the economic front, and that the threat of an economic shock would be off the table. Expect the pound and the stock market to surge if the deal passes.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 18 2019 09:15pm

I think the UK should just leave the EU today, and then form a new govt. that isn't insane.

Lord, help the UK if they ever have to make a "fast" descision, with the current govt. structure. Might just be time for a new and improved England.