Quote (zarkadon @ 6 Oct 2019 13:56)
Legislative elections in Portugal today.
What was supposed to be a walkover for the centre-left party PS, has become a more exciting race over the last few weeks thanks to a good campaign by the centre-right opposition party PSD. President Antonio Costa has apparently been slouching, and could now be in trouble. Over the last few days he has put more time into his rallies, and has had some signs of being nervous, as could be seen yesterday when he got into an argument with a civilian that was claiming he went on vacation during the fires that decimated parts Portugal this summer. The way the fires were handled by the government are indeed one of the main reasons the government has lost popularity over the last few months. Until then, the PS had been close to an absolute majority according to the polls, as people seemingly appreciated Costa's policies of "reasonable" anti-austerity, and his ability to pass social-friendly laws with the left wing parties while also reaching out to the centre-right parties for big economic reforms.
Will we actually see a disputed election? It's unlikely... polls almost unanimously agree that, despite the drop in popularity, PS is still going to win by a big margin and will be able to rely on alt-left party BE and Communist-Greens CDU to keep his government. However, Costa's dreams of an absolute majority seem to have been shattered.
Up to 8 parties could enter the parliament this time:
https://i.imgur.com/gY5VL2v.pngThose 7, plus, according to some polls, Alliança (Alliance), which is a right wing party led by former Prime Minister Pedro Miguel Santana Lopes, that has broken off the centre-right party PSD and advocates for less budget spending and a bicameral system.
Also note, that Green party PEV and Communist party PCP, run in a coalition called CDU.
Opinion polls:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/44/Portuguese_Opinion_Polling,_30_Day_Moving_Average,_2015-2019.pngResults:

So, no surprises. Solid victory for the centre-left PS, but no absolute majority (10 seats short of it). Their lead is so solid now that they won't even need the support from both BE or CDU, and they can just choose one.
Alliança failed to get their seat, which is a massive blow for the former PM Pedro Miguel Santana Lopes, and pretty much ends his political career.
Meanwhile, huge surprises with the entry into parliament of three parties nobody expected: Liberal Initiative (european federalist progressive centrism that is a memeber of ALDE), LIVRE (alt-left european federalist green party that is in line with Varoufakis' DiEM) and Chega (alt-right anti-inmigration party). All 3 of these parties got only just above 1%, but that is enough to enter the Lisbon constituency... this sometimes allows for very small parties to enter parliament; Portugal even had a monarchist party in parliament a while ago.
Over all, the Portuguese people seem happy with Antonio Costa's centrist and progressive policies, with generous but controlled public spending, and his ability to negotiate both left and right. The right in Portugal will have to undergo a reconstruction, after their disaster: PSD lost 15% of their voters, CDS lost two thirds of their seats, and Alliança didn't enter parliament. Only the entry of Chega, which you could argue doesn't even belong in the same block as the aforementioned party due to it's anti-establishment philosophy, could be seen as a win for the right wing spectrum in Portugal, but then again they only got 1% of the votes and benefited from a very low turnout (54%).
Next week: Poland. I have the feeling the results will be somewhat different there
This post was edited by zarkadon on Oct 7 2019 03:10pm