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Apr 22 2020 05:18pm
Quote (dro94 @ 23 Apr 2020 00:58)
Loads of people here think the government and Boris are doing a good job, it's weird. How do all these incompetent leaders have better approval ratings from this crisis? For the record, I'd rather have Trump than Boris, and I don't like Trump. I had to grit my teeth and stay quiet while a guy in a meeting today was like 'Boris is doing a fantastic job, love everything he's doing on coronavirus and Brexit' and others were agreeing. They then started railing on Trump and the US death toll, at which point I reminded them the US has 6x the population of the UK so per capita our deaths are 3x higher (worse), and probably more due to lower testing per capita.


Rally around the flag effect. Almost every world leader is benefitting from it at the moment in the form of a sizeable uptick in approval ratings. The notable exceptions to this trend are Trump, Macron and Bolsonaro.
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Apr 22 2020 05:22pm
Quote (Kayeto @ 22 Apr 2020 22:21)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-coronavirus-death-toll-latest-update-new-analysis-covid-19-a9477761.html


I think that the discrepancy in how coroners select cause of death (with lack of testing) combined with the reporting lag would create a roughly comparable situation in some other first world countries (Germany could be an exception to this since they seem to have a lot of testing?). The actual death toll being roughly double the reported number seems to make some common sense to me.

Then of course you have other countries that are less free and less developed, where their ability to under report is much higher than that.


It cuts both ways - most countries label every death of a coronavirus-positive person as caused by coronavirus, while covid-19 doesnt need to have been the leading cause of death, particularly considering the high age and bad general health status of the average corona casualties. So this effect leads to a slight overestimation of the actual death toll of the virus, while the underreporting from nursing homes and private houses causes it to be underestimated. I have no fucking idea though which way these two contradicting biases balance each other out.
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Apr 22 2020 05:44pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 22 2020 07:22pm)
It cuts both ways - most countries label every death of a coronavirus-positive person as caused by coronavirus, while covid-19 doesnt need to have been the leading cause of death, particularly considering the high age and bad general health status of the average corona casualties. So this effect leads to a slight overestimation of the actual death toll of the virus, while the underreporting from nursing homes and private houses causes it to be underestimated. I have no fucking idea though which way these two contradicting biases balance each other out.


If a person with a pre-existing condition dies with corona, then the argument can be made both ways. You could say "they wouldn't have died if they didn't have covid". You could also say "they wouldn't have died if they didn't have the other condition". Both statements could be equally true. Trying to pinpoint the exact cause of death is tricky and can sometimes be up to interpretation of the coroner (or how that hospital's administration chooses their policy). You could split hairs about exactly which organ failed at which time and caused the person to die, but you never make a lot of of progress trying to tabulate global statistics that way because every area has different policies.There is a different story to tell here.

In a general sense, the impact of the virus on the population is also a story in its own right. There are going to be fewer car accident deaths and more deaths to people who never had covid but were unable to access health care due to overcrowded hospitals. So if we consider all the collateral damage (good and bad) we can just look at the total deaths in April and compare that against the number of deaths in an average April. That comparison also tells a meaningful story.

This post was edited by Kayeto on Apr 22 2020 05:49pm
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Apr 22 2020 06:15pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/santa-clara-county-coronavirus-death.html

Quote
SAN FRANCISCO — Weeks before there was evidence that the coronavirus was spreading in U.S. communities, a 57-year-old woman developed flulike symptoms and abruptly died in her San Jose kitchen, triggering a search for what had killed her. Flu tests were negative. The coroner was baffled. It appeared that the woman had suffered a massive heart attack.

But tissue samples from the woman, who died on Feb. 6, have now shown that she was infected with the coronavirus — a startling discovery that has rewritten the timeline of the virus’s early spread in the United States and suggests that the optimistic assumptions that drove federal policies over the early weeks of the outbreak were misplaced.


Dunno if it's been discussed yet, but the first COVID-19 death in America was earlier than previously thought.
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Apr 22 2020 06:23pm
Director of BARDA has been reassigned because he wasn't willing to play political games.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/politics/read-whistleblower-vaccine-development/index.html
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Apr 22 2020 10:47pm
https://voxeu.org/article/covid-19-italy-analysis-death-registry-data


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A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that true deaths induced by COVID-19 might be about twice as high as officially reported.
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Apr 22 2020 10:49pm
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Apr 22 2020 10:52pm
Quote (Kayeto @ Apr 23 2020 02:47pm)


He tried to prevent profiteering and had to fall on his sword, modern politics.
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Apr 22 2020 10:52pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Apr 23 2020 12:49am)


The format of reading prepared statements then entertaining a few questions from ratings-seeking 'journalists' does not work. It does not constitute a format in which useful information can be disseminated to the public.

If these experts can spare 2 hours to stand on the podium and say nothing of value, then they can spare 2 hours to sit down in a podcast-style format in which they have a conversation and get to some actual information.

This post was edited by Kayeto on Apr 22 2020 10:54pm
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Apr 22 2020 11:07pm




This post was edited by fender on Apr 22 2020 11:20pm
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