Quote (Black XistenZ @ 17 Sep 2019 23:35)
Will the PP have a better candidate/platform this time around? Are they even ready yet for another campaign?
And what about the CD?
No party is going to change its candidate; it is essentially the same thing, but with a lower turnout and people pissed off at the politicians (we'll have to see who suffers more in these envioronment... likely UP, PSOE and C's).
Casado (PP) survived the axe due to the good performance of his party in the regional and local elections held on May. PP recovered the city of Madrid, and kept several strategic regions (including the Madrid region), finishing above C's everywhere against most odds. He's still an awful candidate, but he's in much better shape this time around... not because of his merits, but because of the weakness of his rivals for PP's voter niche.
C's carried out a very questionable anti-Sánchez stratgy, blocking any negotiations with them despite being able to form a majority with PSOE, and this is surely going to make them bleed on their left side. Many centrists still voted C's, but it's unlikely that they will repeat as Rivera's leadership is just sending the party further away from the political centre. They essentially offer the same thing as PP now, but just more progressive, less neoliberal and more yuppie-friendly. Several high-ranking and long running members have abandoned ship over the last few months, due to the veto on Sánchez.
And Vox faced got pretty bad results in the regional and local elections, and it seems like a significant chunk of their voter base will go back to PP, in order to deliver a utility vote against the left... which is something the right-wing has traditionally been very prone to doing here in Spain.
So PP is definitely in a much better position this time around... but really, there's no chance of them contesting Sánchez's victory under Casado's leadership. My prediction is that they'll improve their ridiculous 16% from April, but they'll only get something around 20-22%, which would still be their second worst result of all time. However, there is still time for things a to change, so who knows.