Quote (thundercock @ 11 Nov 2020 06:36)
I mean, between AZ and GA, that's 25K votes. Tack on WI and there's your 45k votes. MI had a 141k vote margin and PA is about 48k. To me, the fact that Biden had so many options whereas Trump NEEDED a specific combination to win is indicative of a decisive win (regardless of error). I have a feeling that if everything was counted on election night, people wouldn't have thought it was so close.
Yes, the geographic diversity of Biden's strength is probably the strongest argument in his favor. More so imho than the D+5 popular vote which is fueled by lopsided margins on the West Coast and the North East.
The surprising thing, in the end, is that Trump did not even need Pennsylvania. He obviously did not need, and never really had a chance to win, Michigan. Holding on in WI/AZ/GA would have been enough to get to 269 EC votes, and Republicans control 26 House delegations (perhaps 27, depending on the ongoing count in an Iowa seat) for the contingent election.
I think the strategy of the Trump campaign got really messed up by those lopsided polls coming out of WI, and far better polls for him in PA.
A- and B+ rated pollsters showing Biden up by 14 in Wisconsin is just completely absurd in hindsight.
Quote (excellence @ 11 Nov 2020 06:51)
we will likely revert to bush 2004-level and obama-2012 level turnouts in 2022 and 2024. i dont think we will dip past 50% overall turnout again but this year will certainly be a one-off. the question has been posed here already: without a figure to rally for or against why 'show up'
This cuts both ways though. No chance all those rabid Trump voters will show up in droves again for a Nikki Haley or a Mike Pence.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 11 2020 05:30am