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Nov 10 2020 08:41pm
Quote (thundercock @ Nov 10 2020 08:34pm)
Your side said that 2016 was an electoral landslide for Trump. I'm sure you can cherry pick stats to back up whatever claim you want but Biden's popular vote margin is likely to be 5%+. Biden not only recreated the Blue Wall but he also picked up AZ and GA.


Most Republicans think you're wrong. Remember, 70% of Republican voters think that the election was NOT free and fair. It's important for Trump to give legitimacy to the system because his voters practically worship him. Do you honestly think that "Obama appointed judges" or "RINO judges" are going to convince these people. You really underestimate just how stupid these people are. Look at that Jere guy and Ghot. THOSE people are the vast majority of GOP voters.


This 100%

Even if trump did a presser saying he lost they'd claim the deepstate got to him. They're broken
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Nov 10 2020 08:41pm
Quote (bogie160 @ 10 Nov 2020 20:49)
If McConnell were to come out tomorrow and say that Trump clearly lost, that there couldn't possibly be fraud, a large part of the electorate would see it as proof of a cover-up. That simply can't happen, which is why adults in the room (McConnell, Biden) are allowing the legal process to take place and make clear for the vast majority what the truth of the matter is.

If you've listened to any leftist over the past 4 years, the motive for fraud is not in question. We should allow our first-world, second to none legal system play this out.

precisely. the rule of law and our Constitution is paramount to our ethos as a nation. part of this is free and fair elections

we had almost 6 weeks in 2000 of valid and Constitutional legal procedures to ensure the election was fair and without fraud. it’s only day 6 after election day and only day 3 after the media tried to say the election was over.

swamp lovers like icepeon don’t get to pick and choose what matters; then again it’s refreshing to see privileged lefties still getting mad when someone tells them to eat their vegetables so that they might get their dessert
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Nov 10 2020 09:30pm
Quote (thundercock @ 11 Nov 2020 03:34)
Your side said that 2016 was an electoral landslide for Trump. I'm sure you can cherry pick stats to back up whatever claim you want but Biden's popular vote margin is likely to be 5%+. Biden not only recreated the Blue Wall but he also picked up AZ and GA.


Some on "my" side did that, but not me. I never claimed that Trump's win in 2016 was anything but really close. The fact that he never really had a noteworthy mandate is part of the reason why his original agenda didnt gain traction. Had he won the popular vote by 9% and gotten to 400+ in the EC, the wall would have been completed before 2018 and Congress would have given him full support for his trade wars...

I am not cherrypicking stats when I point out that Biden's win in the electoral college rests on shaky ground. He won most of the really tight contests this time around. Like I said in the other thread: in the end, there were only around 44k votes standing between president Biden and a second Trump term. In 2016, the number of votes standing between president Hillary and president Trump in the same sense stood at almost double that, 80k.

The popular vote is not super meaningful. Yes, we get it, Commiefornia absolutely loathes Trump.

The Blue Wall was called by this moniker because these three states had gone blue for decades without interruption. Biden winning WI by tiny margins of 0.5% and PA by 0.8% or so does not really mean that he rebuilt the Blue Wall, particularly when we keep in mind the fact that this was a D+5 year nationally. In fact, both states continued to trend more Republican this year, they were R+2.8 states in 2016 and R+4 or R+4.5 states in 2020. It's just that the more lopsided overall environment (compared with 2016) was enough to bring them home for Biden. Going forward, Democrats obviously cannot rely on having a D+5 environment in every cycle.


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Nov 10 2020 09:47pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 10 Nov 2020 22:30)
Some on "my" side did that, but not me. I never claimed that Trump's win in 2016 was anything but really close. The fact that he never really had a noteworthy mandate is part of the reason why his original agenda didnt gain traction. Had he won the popular vote by 9% and gotten to 400+ in the EC, the wall would have been completed before 2018 and Congress would have given him full support for his trade wars...

I am not cherrypicking stats when I point out that Biden's win in the electoral college rests on shaky ground. He won most of the really tight contests this time around. Like I said in the other thread: in the end, there were only around 44k votes standing between president Biden and a second Trump term. In 2016, the number of votes standing between president Hillary and president Trump in the same sense stood at almost double that, 80k.

The popular vote is not super meaningful. Yes, we get it, Commiefornia absolutely loathes Trump.

The Blue Wall was called by this moniker because these three states had gone blue for decades without interruption. Biden winning WI by tiny margins of 0.5% and PA by 0.8% or so does not really mean that he rebuilt the Blue Wall, particularly when we keep in mind the fact that this was a D+5 year nationally. In fact, both states continued to trend more Republican this year, they were R+2.8 states in 2016 and R+4 or R+4.5 states in 2020. It's just that the more lopsided overall environment (compared with 2016) was enough to bring them home for Biden. Going forward, Democrats obviously cannot rely on having a D+5 environment in every cycle.

to touch on tcock's post, a 304 electoral college performance when you are expected to lose by a landslide means you won by a landslide

a potentially similar performance (and quite possibly a worse performance) in the EC when you were expected to win by 360+ electoral votes isnt a landslide. in fact you under-performed
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Nov 10 2020 09:54pm
Quote (excellence @ 11 Nov 2020 04:47)
to touch on tcock's post, a 304 electoral college performance when you are expected to lose by a landslide means you won by a landslide

a potentially similar performance (and quite possibly a worse performance) in the EC when you were expected to win by 360+ electoral votes isnt a landslide. in fact you under-performed


I gotta disagree on that one. If we put too much weight on expectations rather than actual results, then we open up the narrative to all sorts of manipulation by the media. This year is a perfect example: between Trump's skyhigh approvals among his base and Biden's anemic campaign, there was nothing, absolutely nothing suggesting a landslide - aside from the polls and whishcasting by the liberal media about a blue tsunami which will punish all of Trump's "enablers" for their heresy.
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Nov 10 2020 09:59pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 10 Nov 2020 22:54)
I gotta disagree on that one. If we put too much weight on expectations rather than actual results, then we open up the narrative to all sorts of manipulation by the media. This year is a perfect example: between Trump's skyhigh approvals among his base and Biden's anemic campaign, there was nothing, absolutely nothing suggesting a landslide - aside from the polls and whishcasting by the liberal media about a blue tsunami which will punish all of Trump's "enablers" for their heresy.


which has been the common convention until now. i grade on the curve the common convention is, not the one that smart people actually understand.
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Nov 10 2020 10:31pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 10 2020 09:54pm)
I gotta disagree on that one. If we put too much weight on expectations rather than actual results, then we open up the narrative to all sorts of manipulation by the media. This year is a perfect example: between Trump's skyhigh approvals among his base and Biden's anemic campaign, there was nothing, absolutely nothing suggesting a landslide - aside from the polls and whishcasting by the liberal media about a blue tsunami which will punish all of Trump's "enablers" for their heresy.


I don't remember many landslide predictions. Maybe they learned from 2016. Still I knew the 5% margins in wi and similar states were off. I just missed by a half a %
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Nov 10 2020 10:41pm


voilà
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Nov 10 2020 11:36pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 10 2020 07:30pm)
Some on "my" side did that, but not me. I never claimed that Trump's win in 2016 was anything but really close. The fact that he never really had a noteworthy mandate is part of the reason why his original agenda didnt gain traction. Had he won the popular vote by 9% and gotten to 400+ in the EC, the wall would have been completed before 2018 and Congress would have given him full support for his trade wars...

I am not cherrypicking stats when I point out that Biden's win in the electoral college rests on shaky ground. He won most of the really tight contests this time around. Like I said in the other thread: in the end, there were only around 44k votes standing between president Biden and a second Trump term. In 2016, the number of votes standing between president Hillary and president Trump in the same sense stood at almost double that, 80k.

The popular vote is not super meaningful. Yes, we get it, Commiefornia absolutely loathes Trump.

The Blue Wall was called by this moniker because these three states had gone blue for decades without interruption. Biden winning WI by tiny margins of 0.5% and PA by 0.8% or so does not really mean that he rebuilt the Blue Wall, particularly when we keep in mind the fact that this was a D+5 year nationally. In fact, both states continued to trend more Republican this year, they were R+2.8 states in 2016 and R+4 or R+4.5 states in 2020. It's just that the more lopsided overall environment (compared with 2016) was enough to bring them home for Biden. Going forward, Democrats obviously cannot rely on having a D+5 environment in every cycle.


I mean, between AZ and GA, that's 25K votes. Tack on WI and there's your 45k votes. MI had a 141k vote margin and PA is about 48k. To me, the fact that Biden had so many options whereas Trump NEEDED a specific combination to win is indicative of a decisive win (regardless of error). I have a feeling that if everything was counted on election night, people wouldn't have thought it was so close.

I want to see how the political landscape settles after this. I 100% agree that Dems can't rely on a +5 environment. Ultimately, I don't think that this kind of turnout is sustainable for either party so it'll be interesting to see where the chips fall.
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Nov 10 2020 11:51pm
Quote (thundercock @ 11 Nov 2020 00:36)
I mean, between AZ and GA, that's 25K votes. Tack on WI and there's your 45k votes. MI had a 141k vote margin and PA is about 48k. To me, the fact that Biden had so many options whereas Trump NEEDED a specific combination to win is indicative of a decisive win (regardless of error). I have a feeling that if everything was counted on election night, people wouldn't have thought it was so close.

I want to see how the political landscape settles after this. I 100% agree that Dems can't rely on a +5 environment. Ultimately, I don't think that this kind of turnout is sustainable for either party so it'll be interesting to see where the chips fall.


we will likely revert to bush 2004-level and obama-2012 level turnouts in 2022 and 2024. i dont think we will dip past 50% overall turnout again but this year will certainly be a one-off. the question has been posed here already: without a figure to rally for or against why 'show up'
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