Cohabitation of different generatons in the same house plays a huge role too, it's a big explanatory factor for why Italy, Spain and France are so much more affected than Germany, Poland or Sweden. In those mediterranean countries, the grandparents typically live in the same household as their children and grandchildren, so that they are much more easily exposed.

But yeah, like sauci said, bad luck also plays a large role. Due to the nature of exponential growth, a couple of days of delay in enacting social distancing rules can make a huge difference in the base number of infected persons a country had to deal with. Italy, Spain and France just were a bit too late to realize what was going on.

The bigger aberration, imho, is the UK. In their case, an ailing healthcare system met with a misguided initial strategy of herd immunity, and when their government finally decided to correct course, they had lost too much valuable time.

what is a hill billy i'm black

Italy still isolated areas at the start, locked some cities, but it was alfeady too late.
And containment got ignored at the beginning.
UK seems in serious trouble



Prime Minister Boris Johnson is accused of being too light-hearted in his actions at the start of the Covid-19 coronavirus health crisis. "At the start of this pandemic in the UK, the authorities said, 'If we get away with 20,000 dead, we will have handled this crisis well.' Sunday evening April 19, we are already more than 16,000 dead in hospitals and 6,500 dead in retirement homes. It's already 22,500 victims, ”reports journalist Arnaud Comte, duplex in London (United Kingdom).
No return to normal life before the fall of 2021

“Scientists now project 40,000 deaths in the coming months. It would be the heaviest toll in Europe, if a vaccine was found in the next 18 months. In this context, here, we are not talking about deconfinement, but of adaptation, of cohabitation with the virus. The British authorities are quite frank: no return to normal life before the fall of 2021, say the scientists, if science finds a solution by then ”

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Apr 19 2020 04:20pm

i';d be one if i could put babies inside one of those girls

I agree entirely (and have probably posted exactly that earlier in this thread). But I still thought we'd be looking at a far higher death toll at this point than we currently are.

trump says there is no 2nd wave and that if there is only a few 1000 will die

which means he will be correct

This post was edited by Crankyjimster on Apr 19 2020 04:28pm

Worrisome results about immunity, and so on, herd immune strategy.

(Googlee)Translation from some French paper

In Wuhan, home of the epidemic where testing began, the study leaders have already noted two bad news. The first relates to the number of people tested who have developed antibodies. This is simply too weak to hope for collective immunity. However, we are still talking about a city of 11 million inhabitants where thousands of asymptomatic cases can still be found!

In addition, Zhongnan Hospital - one of the largest in Wuhan - performed tests on its own employees. However, only 2.4% of the 3,600 employees had developed antibodies. As for recent patients and other visitors (5,000 people), they would only be 2 to 3% in this case. This proves once again that collective immunity is far, far from being achieved.

In other words, the only hope lies in the development of a vaccine, according to Wang Xinghuan director of Zhongnan Hospital. However, the first vaccines are not expected before 2021. Thus, the fear of a second wave of the epidemic is very present in China, especially considering the small number of people healed who have developed antibodies. In addition, Chinese researchers have confessed that they are not sure that having a positive antibody test ensures immunization!
--------
Second wave will very certainly happen but could progress much slowly, because we take care this time, no surprise effect.
Delays could be weeks, months. Most infected 'epicentre' could be africa, India, south America.

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Apr 19 2020 09:39pm

He's obviously sick, check at 2: 20



This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Apr 19 2020 09:57pm