Quote (EndlessSky @ 18 Oct 2020 15:35)
Trafalgar correctly predicted Trump's Michigan and Pennsylvania wins when all of the glue eating firms failed in 2016.
Trafalgar is predicting a 278-260 win for Trump this time with a moderate margin of error, losing PA but maintaining MI.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/There was a strong late swing toward Trump during the final days of the 2016 campaign which the polls couldnt possibly capture anymore. This allowed Trafalgar's pro-Trump bias to look correct in the end out of sheer luck.
Trafalgar has something like a 2-3% bias in favor of Trump, and if even they only project 278 electoral votes for him (many of them coming from states with a predicted Trump winning margin well below 2-3%), he's really in deep trouble.
Side note: it is often said that the national polls were actually quite accurate in 2016, but that's not true, this is also a result of luck. Polls underestimated Trump in the Midwest and underestimated Clinton/overestimated Trump in the Sun Belt, with both polling misses roughly cancelling each other out on the national level.
Quote (EndlessSky @ 18 Oct 2020 16:48)
I love how Garrison feels the need to label the Biden caricature with "Joe", as if anyone wouldnt be able to recognize him at this point. He must really think the readers of his comics are completely uninformed.
