So in the next 30 or so days he's basically got to swing 6 states back his direction for it to be a toss up.

Not a great place to be.

Are there only two debates scheduled?

All 3 are scheduled plus a VP debate next week.

Polls TOTALLY decide elections!

As I've said before, Trump's victory was within the margin of error on election day, but the error was systematically in Clinton's favor.

The polls now have included education as a factor (2016 was the first time that was important) which will reduce the systematic error in favor of Democrats this time, and with that being the case Biden is winning by a much larger margin than Hillary was in 2016.

So polls are now more accurate, and even considering that Biden has a larger lead than last time.

Go to the websites and look at the polling method. I guarantee you they oversample Democrats by 12%

Clinton was given anywhere from a 70% to 99% chance to win in 2016. She lost. Handily lost. Polls were not simply wrong, they were very wrong. Your response? "The polls have been fixed, and now Biden's doing even better in them than HRC was!!!"

Yeah. We'll see.

Take the same polling errors, add them to his current standing in the polls, and he still loses the election.
He'd win Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina. Wisconsin and Texas* would be tossups. He'd lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, Minnesota, New Mexico, Maine, Colorado and Virginia.

You'd, at the very best for Trump, end up with a 259-279 loss:



*Note that he did underperform his polls by 2.7% in Texas in 2016!

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 29 2020 06:02pm

Go back and look at the polling the week of the election. They swing heavily towards Trump after the Comey announcement essentially turning the race into a tossup, and considering Trump's margin was 107k votes across like 3 states, I'd say that's pretty accurate.

The lesson from 2016 isn't polling is wrong. The lesson is that polls are largely accurate, and can swing very quickly, so polling 30 days out doesn't predict the election, but it is an accurate snapshot of how the country currently stands.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Sep 29 2020 06:04pm

She didnt lose "handily". She lost the two candidates for tipping point state (WI and PA) by 0.7% each. The 2016 result was far closer than the 306-232 EC outcome suggests.

That's funny. Honestly funny. Arizona, for instance, going by a quick look at 538 is in a dead heat with Biden. So, what aggregate is the above chart even from?

Again, totally convinced polls win elections.