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Jun 2 2016 06:05pm
Quote (Beowulf @ 2 Jun 2016 18:34)
For now it's all good in the hood for Trump

His cult members will follow him blindly even as he transforms into the typical establishment Republican and the donors know they have him by the balls so the rest of the hold outs like Ryan will bend over

Now we wait and hope something he does or says actually sticks to him for once


I think that right now and these next two months will likely be the best it ever gets for Trump supporters.

He's fresh off of taking down the GOP establishment and defeating Cruz and Kasich before they even got to the convention. That felt good. He has the benefit of being closer to Hillary in national polls than he likely should be because he has no opponent whereas Hillary's poll numbers are likely being driven down by still having to run against an opponent (Sanders).

Trump's got about a ~30% chance to win the Oval office in betting markets, and he recently moved up from 3/1 odds to 2/1 odds in Vegas to become president.

But my prediction is that as we get closer to August and September, Hillary will open up a lead in national polls to about 4 or 5%. Assuming she doesn't get indicted, I think she will beat Trump by about 347 to 219 (perhaps 332-206, depending on North Carolina) in the electoral college with about a 6-7% lead in the popular vote.

So right now, things are going good for Trump and his supporters. They feel like he's got a good shot at this, and he certainly does. But my prediction is that ultimately Hillary will beat him down in November.

After the election, Trump supporters will likely feel crushed. And I don't blame them. They will feel like they don't have a home in politics anymore. Trump is/was such a wild and spectacular ride, we might not ever seen something like him again in our lifetimes. And now all these people who voted in Republican primaries for Trump and supported him after he repeatedly bashed the GOP establishment will be lost and confused with who to identify with.

Most will likely go back to supporting typical GOP politics and the Republican establishment, but I imagine at least a sizable chunk (and especially his most vocal supporters) will just feel without a home. Hopefully a more populist wing of the GOP opens up to help represent them, but I doubt that happens.

Many may never find a politician or candidate that they love as much again. Trump broke all the rules; he's ridiculous, he's unapologetic, he's funny, and he's one of a kind.
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Jun 2 2016 06:13pm
Quote (ThatAlex @ Jun 2 2016 04:05pm)

After the election, Trump supporters will likely feel crushed. And I don't blame them. They will feel like they don't have a home in politics anymore. Trump is/was such a wild and spectacular ride, we might not ever seen something like him again in our lifetimes. And now all these people who voted in Republican primaries for Trump and supported him after he repeatedly bashed the GOP establishment will be lost and confused with who to identify with.

Most will likely go back to supporting typical GOP politics and the Republican establishment, but I imagine at least a sizable chunk (and especially his most vocal supporters) will just feel without a home. Hopefully a more populist wing of the GOP opens up to help represent them, but I doubt that happens.



I think you're giving way too much credit to at least 50-60%+ of Trump supporters

His supporters do not hold him accountable for any of his major flip flops that landed him right in the establishment boat

They excuse everything, turn it into a misinformed meme, or start screaming Clinton did blah or blah

These are not informed or issue interested people that are just looking for a politician to look out for the common man they are the crazy haired toothless villains in every post apocalyptic movie/show. They are political rodents.
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Jun 2 2016 06:27pm
Quote (Beowulf @ 2 Jun 2016 19:13)
I think you're giving way too much credit to at least 50-60%+ of Trump supporters

His supporters do not hold him accountable for any of his major flip flops that landed him right in the establishment boat

They excuse everything, turn it into a misinformed meme, or start screaming Clinton did blah or blah

These are not informed or issue interested people that are just looking for a politician to look out for the common man they are the crazy haired toothless villains in every post apocalyptic movie/show. They are political rodents.


I'm not disagreeing with any of what you're saying here, but the bottom line about that point I was making is that devout Trump supporters are probably never going to get another candidate that they love as much as him ever again.

He is already on his way to supporting many aspects of the establishment GOP agenda, but it doesn't "feel" that way to Trump supporters when he's bashing the Bush family, calling Romney a loser, or going after any other establishment Republican figure that doesn't endorse him.

He's a unique politician and one of a kind. I'm not certain we've ever seen something like Donald Trump in American politics or if we will ever something like him again in a long time. If he loses, many of his vocal supporters will likely never be as passionate about a candidate again in their lifetimes.

I'm just curious, can you say anything about Trump without criticizing him? Just asking. I'm not certain you have that capability. I'm talking about how Trump supporters are truly in love with their candidate, not whether that love is well-reasoned or justified. Do you recognize that distinction?
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Jun 2 2016 06:32pm
Quote (ThatAlex @ Jun 2 2016 04:27pm)


I'm just curious, can you say anything about Trump without criticizing him? Just asking. I'm not certain you have that capability. I'm talking about how Trump supporters are truly in love with their candidate, not whether that love is well-reasoned or justified. Do you recognize that distinction?


Strictly politically speaking? No
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Jun 2 2016 06:48pm
Trump is not fit to be president and I meant that literally. Hillary is no white knight and I sadly do not wanna see her there. But she will get my vote before Trump. She is a Presidential Candidate and Trump is not imo.
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Jun 2 2016 06:50pm
Quote (kennysum111 @ Jun 2 2016 04:48pm)
Trump is not fit to be president and I meant that literally. Hillary is no white knight and I sadly do not wanna see her there. But she will get my vote before Trump. She is a Presidential Candidate and Trump is not imo.


I expected to see something regarding weight following this and now I wonder what unfit figuratively would mean to you
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Jun 2 2016 06:57pm
Quote (Beowulf @ 2 Jun 2016 19:32)
Strictly politically speaking? No


There is a way to engage into discussion about politics without inserting too much of your personal opinion.

For instance, I think a Trump presidency would be disastrous, but I still can try to make political predictions and commentary without bashing on him or his supporters.

Of course, I can and will do bashing, too, but I find political discussion to be a little more interesting and informative if people aren't bashing each other's candidates all the time. But this could just be personal taste.

Sometimes I just feel like we are talking about two different things. I was talking about how vocal Trump supporters might not ever be as passionate a candidate again, and you replied with a comment about how they are more or less not justified in that passion or their fervor for him as a candidate.

And that's probably true, but that's not what I was talking about.
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Jun 2 2016 07:00pm
Quote (kennysum111 @ 2 Jun 2016 19:48)
Trump is not fit to be president and I meant that literally. Hillary is no white knight and I sadly do not wanna see her there. But she will get my vote before Trump. She is a Presidential Candidate and Trump is not imo.


Trump's pretty clearly trying to serve his country the best way he knows how and I can see it plainly. He's been looking at the corruption for a very long time and figures now is the opportunity to strike. People who don't fully understand yet are too caught up in little details and with their own reputations. They're insecure. Why shouldn't somebody be able to radically represent himself however he feels like if he chooses? Dumb words never hurt anybody. People believe dumb words all the time. A guy that wild, fearless, and utterly dominant rightly terrifies the shit out of people and brings their insecurities and fears right to the surface. Everybody who's committed crimes in media and industry are fearing for their careers right now, and it's a great and exciting time to be alive.

I don't know if HRC or Trump is going to win but everybody here already knows who I'm betting on.




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Jun 2 2016 07:02pm
Quote (kennysum111 @ Jun 2 2016 07:48pm)
Trump is not fit to be president and I meant that literally. Hillary is no white knight and I sadly do not wanna see her there. But she will get my vote before Trump. She is a Presidential Candidate and Trump is not imo.


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Jun 2 2016 07:08pm
Quote (ThatAlex @ Jun 2 2016 04:57pm)
There is a way to engage into discussion about politics without inserting too much of your personal opinion.

For instance, I think a Trump presidency would be disastrous, but I still can try to make political predictions and commentary without bashing on him or his supporters.

Of course, I can and will do bashing, too, but I find political discussion to be a little more interesting and informative if people aren't bashing each other's candidates all the time. But this could just be personal taste.

Sometimes I just feel like we are talking about two different things. I was talking about how vocal Trump supporters might not ever be as passionate a candidate again, and you replied with a comment about how they are more or less not justified in that passion or their fervor for him as a candidate.

And that's probably true, but that's not what I was talking about.


If their "passion" is for the "outsider" and non establishment candidate that has completely 180'd on that while running a racist and divisive campaign in the most dumbass way imaginable and they do not hold him accountable for being exactly what they claim to despise why would I go along with pretending their bullshit is legitimate passion?

As I have said before the real "passion" came out in 2011 when Trump latched on to the birther shit and his political popularity took off and then when he came out with the immigrants being rapists it sealed the deal.

All the negativity and divisiveness and hatred that the Republicans have been peddling for years came to a head with a loud "tell it like it is" Trump.

Their "passion" can suck it
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