Quote (Beowulf @ 2 Jun 2016 18:34)
For now it's all good in the hood for Trump
His cult members will follow him blindly even as he transforms into the typical establishment Republican and the donors know they have him by the balls so the rest of the hold outs like Ryan will bend over
Now we wait and hope something he does or says actually sticks to him for once
I think that right now and these next two months will likely be the best it ever gets for Trump supporters.
He's fresh off of taking down the GOP establishment and defeating Cruz and Kasich before they even got to the convention. That felt good. He has the benefit of being closer to Hillary in national polls than he likely should be because he has no opponent whereas Hillary's poll numbers are likely being driven down by still having to run against an opponent (Sanders).
Trump's got about a ~30% chance to win the Oval office in betting markets, and he recently moved up from 3/1 odds to 2/1 odds in Vegas to become president.
But my prediction is that as we get closer to August and September, Hillary will open up a lead in national polls to about 4 or 5%. Assuming she doesn't get indicted, I think she will beat Trump by about 347 to 219 (perhaps 332-206, depending on North Carolina) in the electoral college with about a 6-7% lead in the popular vote.
So right now, things are going good for Trump and his supporters. They feel like he's got a good shot at this, and he certainly does. But my prediction is that ultimately Hillary will beat him down in November.
After the election, Trump supporters will likely feel crushed. And I don't blame them. They will feel like they don't have a home in politics anymore. Trump is/was such a wild and spectacular ride, we might not ever seen something like him again in our lifetimes. And now all these people who voted in Republican primaries for Trump and supported him after he repeatedly bashed the GOP establishment will be lost and confused with who to identify with.
Most will likely go back to supporting typical GOP politics and the Republican establishment, but I imagine at least a sizable chunk (and especially his most vocal supporters) will just feel without a home. Hopefully a more populist wing of the GOP opens up to help represent them, but I doubt that happens.
Many may never find a politician or candidate that they love as much again. Trump broke all the rules; he's ridiculous, he's unapologetic, he's funny, and he's one of a kind.