Quote (Skinned @ Feb 21 2022 04:27pm)
Bloodless? Ukraine has 1/3 the population of Russia, is on its own turf, and had just received $2.5B with of small antitank, anti artillery, and anti air missiles that aren't structures but rather highly mobile weapons. Russia couldn't conquer Afghanistan and they aren't nearly as well armed or motivated (or well fed) as the free people of Ukraine. Plus the people of Ukraine are under the real threat of losing their freedom of self determination and determining their own government. They just overthrew the puppet Russian government that was actually already installed, installing another is going to be difficult.
Russia has the second greatest military in the world, and Ukraine is 26ish. But Ukraine's entire military and reserves are dedicated to the defense of Ukraine. Russia needs to spread its army around because it is so busy attacking or puppeteering their neighbors that they need troops everywhere to keep the peace.. It is an illiberal dictatorship after all. Ukraine is a liberal democracy and wishes to stay free.
If Russia invades it will be after one of these false flags sticks. There have been several already. They like start by establishing air superiority and bombing any anti armor and anti air weapons that are structural (hence the $2.5b small arms given to Ukraine to defend themselves) and then launch a ground invasion, while the Ukrainian game plan will be stall stall stall, trade blood for time, and hope the west helps them during this obvious war crime being committed. I can't imagine Europe will sit back and allow Russia to just invade a sovereign state like it did with Hitler and Poland. I don't think appeasement is on the menu this time. That is what NATO was created for.
Right now the ball is in Russia's court. They've already occupied two regions of Ukraine, Crimea and Donbass, by sending in their military dressed as irregulars (the little green men that were all over were professional soldiers) and they're now eyeing Odessa and Kiev. Letting Russia start a new pogrom in Ukraine would be so catastrophic strategically to NATO I don't think it would be allowed.
Pax Americana is being tested. We have had relative global peace since WW2 to the benefit of everyone, but especially the poor countries of the world. Pax Americana ends when Russia is allowed to start invading the Warsaw countries again unchecked, when China is allowed to move back into Taiwan unchecked, when the allies of the United States are no longer safe because they can't count on us to stand up to the regional dictator getting too big for their britches.
Letting Russia and China get away with cheating in the Olympics is bad enough.
let me run some numbers on the strength of the Afghanistan military and how impressive and well equipped and well trained it was, how it was the greatest fighting force in the mideast and had state of the art weaponry and billions of dollars of US aid aaaaand its gone. Its gone. Its all gone. The afghan military didn't too well its all gone. Not anymore, poof.
Military conflicts with predetermined outcomes that everyone recognizes, don't motivate people to go out and throw their lives away. Everyone makes their escape plan advance. Foreign puppet heads of government who see their support crumble drive to exile in a motorcade stuffed with as much loot as they can fit. Nobody fights a
war, shelling and airstrikes and trenches have no purpose. When the first world countries move in, the third world countries fold instantly. When the first world countries move out, their puppets ruling those third world countries fold instantly.
Everyone knew how this would end, nobody even bothered pretending it would be a real invasion. Biden teed up a bunch of
sanctions. Germany refused to lift a finger.
So now we're watching as Ukraine tells ethnic Ukrainians to immediately evacuate to the west, while Putin seizes and fortifies the east, and no actual war took place, no real change to the status quo, just a pure formality. Russia already had little green men swarming over the east, now they're just official. Ukraine already had zero control over the breakaway regions, now their independence is recognized by Russia. Where's the hot war? Where's the big epic battle scene for the hollywood movie someone films 15 years from now?