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#401
Nov 3 2020 09:24pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Nov 3 2020 07:22pm)
"all time" ?
Getting that horrible sack of shit of a clown in office a second time is suicide for your country.


Come on, man. I learned your country. I think most pard knows I'm a leaf by now
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#402
Nov 3 2020 09:25pm
Quote (proccy @ Nov 3 2020 09:24pm)
Come on, man. I learned your country. I think most pard knows I'm a leaf by now


What is he French? He must be enjoying the lockdown.
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#403
Nov 3 2020 09:25pm
MSM is being a bunch of melvins not giving trump his swing states

REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
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#404
Nov 3 2020 09:26pm
Quote (proccy @ Nov 3 2020 11:24pm)
Come on, man. I learned your country. I think most pard knows I'm a leaf by now


Dont know many canadians that would spend america's election day trolling trump rhetoric on an internet gaming forum but okay.
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#405
Nov 3 2020 09:26pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ 4 Nov 2020 04:21)
Been saying the models could be totally wrong for a while now.

This is a weird race


It always was a weird race. Biden's ghost campaign, the lopsided polls which were completely detached from the energy and mood on the ground, Trump's platform- and direction-less campaign, the constant uncertainty about covid, the looting and burning which weirdly increased Democrats' standing in the polls, etc.

Regarding this latter point: I think when it came to the riots during the summer, there was really a shitton of social desirability bias.
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#406
Nov 3 2020 09:26pm
CNN is already prepping their audience for a Trump win

saying the RNC/Trump ground game blew away Biden, and he turned out R voters in numbers that are unheard of

the rural turnaround in this election, for the R's, is the real story. and the new R voter registration, which was 4x that of Democrats
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#407
Nov 3 2020 09:26pm
Trump +11 in MI? Only 33% though
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#408
Nov 3 2020 09:27pm
Quote (TritonV8 @ Nov 3 2020 07:25pm)
What is he French? He must be enjoying the lockdown.


Saucy is French. It makes him very annoying by nature :D


You aren't always wrong saucy
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#409
Nov 3 2020 09:27pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 3 2020 07:20pm)
The CW was that Biden would lead among the early votes, then Trump surges ahead with his large lead on election day votes, and then late-arriving mail and absentee ballots lean Democratic again, shrinking the R lead a bit in the end.



Giving Trump NC, FL and GA (and TX) doesnt mean that he's hugely favored in and off itself. But his winning margins in GA and FL are on track to outperform even optimistic expectations. We're not in a world where he hung on to these states by the skin of his teeth with 0.2% margins or something like that, he'll win them by 3+. And that, in turn, has ramifications for the entire model. Conditional on Trump winning these two states by 3 each, his chances at winning the EC are definitely higher than 50/50.


Given that this election is close, even if Biden wins, there's no way that the GOP moves on from Trump. He would be the presumptive nominee in 2024 (health permitting).
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#410
Nov 3 2020 09:27pm
Quote (TritonV8 @ Nov 3 2020 10:26pm)
Trump +11 in MI? Only 33% though



MI WI PA and I think OH mail ins are counted after in person voting
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