Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ Jan 3 2022 01:09pm)
It was called global warming then conservatives rebranded it to climate change because it didn't sound as scary. Karl Rove in the Bush administration was specifically behind that big push.
The warning has never been "10 years from now". That's literally just conservative propaganda repeated over so much that people think it's true. Scientists have been very specific in their predictions and they have consistently underestimated the effect.
We're pretty much screwed as it is. The aquafer that supplies the entire western half of the U.S. and the Colorado River are drying up. Goodbye the whole Western U.S.'s source of fresh water.
Global warming wasn't rebranded into climate change by politicians, it was done by climatologists and civil engineers, I would know. It was throughout the late 90s and early 2000s, as a way to distinguish the more widespread ecological impacts of anthropogenic climate change, against just the simplified narrative of 'its getting warmer'. The terms were both always in use, its just that one was imprecise and narrowly scoped.
And no, scientists have
never, ever, ever been 'very specific' in their predictions nor have they consistently underestimated effects. Scientists produced extremely wide ranges of models that all had low degrees of certainty and wildly varying outcomes, and when work was actually done with the models in adaptation efforts, it looked at average and consensus models, not singular predictions. Even when we look at wide lens predictions like global average temperatures, the models varied drastically. The famous 2C model was just another average of many models. I really can't stress how climatology is one of the least precise, least exact forms of statistical modelling. When you take 100 different models that have many outliers and a wide range of uncertainty and take a fitted curve in them, you aren't being specific and you are neither underestimating nor overestimating impacts, you just don't really know. What the models agree upon is more general trends, like an overall average temperature upwards over long periods, higher potential (but not necessarily average outcomes) for maximum probable flood events due to hotter air having a higher moisture carrying cap, etc. When it comes to more derivative predictions like frequency of hurricane formation, nobody knows.
This post was edited by Goomshill on Jan 3 2022 01:27pm
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