His usual uncanny political instinct took a wrong turn there. If he did this it would have been unifying and he would deserve reelection, especially with how successful he has been for his base, which is undeniable, in terms of 3 justices, killing Obamacare mandate at federal level, and riling up his base so much they walloped Democrats down card I think. There is a lot of opposition to Trump because there is a lot of white identity politics in MAGA and the political field is so galvanized now that the backlash is so extreme, as Trump himself being elected is a huge backlash to years of Bush and Clinton dominating all of our adult lives and Hillary being nominated and people being like "nope". She came here, said on black Cincinnati radio that the thing she always carries in her purse is hot sauce. They roasted the fuck out of her for pandering to them and it was great. Nobody was having that stuff anymore. Obama was a backlash to Bush to Clinton to Bush to another fucking Clinton? Nope, who is this young smart dude who doesn't seem like a crook? Oh he's done, oh shit, Clinton again.....GOP fucking raged at the Bush with Mexican kids (clap please) and ran him out of town with pitchforks with Trump leading the charge lol.

If anything I hope Trump's combo breaker breaks up the Bush-Clinton combo attack on America forever. The Washington Consensus remains intact.

Also four more years is possible still, the election is not over.

This post was edited by Skinned on Nov 5 2020 08:09pm

This. Its simple no c19 Trump crushes imo

well he won against all odds on instinct so maybe it makes sense he possibly doomed himself that way

as for the bold no it wont, their sycophants are coalescing around each other knowing they are so close to defeating their mutual adversary. biden is buddies with the Clintons, he needed to bridge them and the Obamas in 2008

This post was edited by excellence on Nov 5 2020 08:14pm

Trumps downfall was an inability to sell his brand. How 2020

yeah he treated it like a bizarre crisis management scenario

instead of either going with his usual “how can i make this work with my brand” or just taking the safe route and listening to fauci and birx verbatim.

the latter makes sense given his personality, but the former is truly an unforced error. imagine 20-30 million of his supporters buying whatever it is $5, maybe $10 masks? and they need at least 2 diff colors, and at least 1 more with a good annoying slogan to piss off the lefties

This post was edited by excellence on Nov 5 2020 08:20pm

he's gonna end up with like 7 million extra votes compared to last election

it just turns out people already identify his brand as inferior product

Trump would have crip walked over the ballot box in moon shoes if he didn't mishandle covid.

The turnout numbers from independents and dems for biden would have been miserable without the imminent fear of death/not being able to pay rent.

Absolutely. Covid was a quintuple-whammy for Trump:

- it shredded "his" great economy which he had planned to make the centerpiece of his reelection pitch.
- it created a huge public health crisis which he oversaw. more generally, it pushed the topic of healthcare to the forefront of the political debate again, an issue where Democrats have the upper hand.
- it badly exposed Trump's weaknesses as the chief executive and leader of the country. it made people value technocratic competence more.
- Trump is a great campaigner, Biden is not. Thus, covid hampering Trump's rallies and giving Biden an excuse to hold little rallies was a big plus for Biden.
- Covid caused a shift toward mail voting, which has historically been favorable to Democrats. Moreover, due to widespread mail voting, there were millions of votes which got locked in during Trump's nadir, after the chaotic first debate and his covid diagnosis.

So yes, Trump would have beaten Biden decisively without covid. But at the same time, he would also have beaten him if he had handled covid at least somewhat professionally. He didnt even have to nail it, just good enough would have sufficed to take this election imho.


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A different question: it looks as if far stronger turnout than in the previous cycle in the heavily black cities of Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta will be the factor that gets Biden across the finish line. Therefore, my question is: would Trump have won without Derek Chauvin?

that's the only one i don't understand your logic on.

4/5 almost certainly true though

Trump couldnt hold his rallies for half a year, and even when he resumed them during the final stretch of the campaign, his choice of locations for his rallies was limited to cities with an airport. Without covid, he could have held larger rallies; and he could have held them for many more months.
By contrast, months on the conventional campaign trail would have exposed how frail and uninspiring Biden is. It would not have benefitted him all that much, perhaps even hurt him.