Quote (sir_lance_bb @ Nov 5 2019 07:30am)
People were so sure of Clinton beating Trump as well.
There's really no way to be sure of this 2020 election. I live in Ohio so the perception around me is sometimes an indicator of what might pull the election, can't really know. Towards the end of the 2016 election (3-4 months before) I kind of started to think Trump is going to win since saw so many people around me be all about Trump and the continued trend of people my age around me politically apathetic.
I don't think there is really any real way to gauge the moderates who would be willing to vote Trump again or vote democrat. My dad voted for Bernie in the primary but voted for Trump because that's how shitty of a candidate Clinton was. The trump cultists I doubt would be willing be swayed at all. But there's a lot of factors that can't really be measured. Trump narrowly won a lot of the voting districts in the swing states which means the election was a lot closer than people realize which is how Clinton had the popular vote since she had larger margins of victory in the districts she won vs Trump only had large margins of victory in red states whereas the swing states were very close and since the system is winner take all, you don't truly notice how close the election was from a distance.
If Trump gets impeached by the house, which looks like that could take place, I really just can't see the senate doing so. Because if the senate impeaches, that probably is for certain means the GOP is giving up the 2020 election and handing over an election is something the GOP would not forgive some senators and would treat them as pariahs in their own party.
As with most things, young people will basically decide the fate of the election and since they are the most politically apathetic group, no real way to tell. Since the young people in the swing states are even more apathetic than the young people in the coastal blue states. When I go to vote , I see maybe 1 person my age for every 4-6 people in the gen x/boomer age group. Which is crazy when you realize Millennials are 25% of the population which is equal to not greater than the boomer group.
People were really sure but that wasn't reality on the ground. I live in a city & district that has voted Democrat for 100 years and i was shocked at the amount of people voicing support for Trump (at least in settings where they wouldn't be publicly shamed or scoffed like college campuses)
I'm seeing a lot of the same. I truly believe the Democrats fucked up big time by dragging on the bullshit Russia collusion story. They desensitized people and most people don't care or view this as political.
I honestly don't see how Democrats get a win even with this Ukraine stuff. If he gets impeached, his supporters will view this as an attack on them and be emboldened to show up. Plus putting an impeachment vote before elections is going to be really dangerous for vulnerable Democrats in swing/republican districts. It's polling bad there, i think the calculus is that it will change but if it doesn't, you're going to see swaths of Democrats drop support, after all the number one job of a politician is to stay in office. Millennial don't show up to vote like the boomers do. Most of us millennials are keyboard warriors.
This post was edited by ofthevoid on Nov 5 2019 09:54am