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Nov 21 2009 01:40pm
I see the debate ended with me smashing the deniers. Bunch of fruit loop wingnuts.
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Nov 21 2009 01:52pm
Quote (inkanddagger @ Nov 21 2009 12:40pm)
I see the debate ended with me smashing the deniers. Bunch of fruit loop wingnuts.


Who the hell you calling crazy? You wouldn't know what crazy was if Charles Manson was eating fruit loops in your front porch.
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Nov 21 2009 01:54pm
Quote (Cruzader @ Nov 21 2009 03:52pm)
Who the hell you calling crazy? You wouldn't know what crazy was if Charles Manson was eating fruit loops in your front porch.


I have to bring his fruit loops to him in prison.
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Nov 21 2009 02:00pm
Al Gore is a false prophet and for that he must die.
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Nov 21 2009 02:12pm
The word trick can mean lots of things, 2 of the more fitting defintions given by webster are:

Quote
a crafty procedure or practice meant to deceive or defraud

This of course is the one the conspiracy theorists want us to use when we read that one email.

Another definition given by webster:
Quote
a technical device (as of an art or craft) <the tricks of stage technique>


While it is impossible for us to determine for sure which one is meant, I suggest it is the latter. Of course the mark of a true believer in a conspiracy theory is they will never change their mind once they find something they think fits their world view. The following is for the benefit of rational people who have not reached a conclusion and then searched for any tidbit that can be wildly interpreted to support it.

Here are some more examples of their use of the word in the emails (to support my view that when they used the word trick, they were not implying deception).

------------------------

0843161829.txt
I really wish I could be more positive about the Kyrgyzstan material, but I swear I pulled every trick out of my sleeve trying to milk something out of that. It was pretty funny though - I told Malcolm what you said about my possibly being too Graybill-like in evaluating the response functions - he laughed and said that's what he thought at first also. The data's tempting but there's too much variation even within stands.


0994859893.txt
- a macroeconomic framework insuring the consistency between prices and quantities at any point in time without necessarily resorting to the modelling tricks relying on the conventional neo-classical growth theory; these 'tricks' assume indeed perfect foresight, efficient markets and the absence of strategic or routine behaviours; New conceptual frameworks about endogenous growth theory allow for such a move, but there is a gap between advances in pure theory and empirical modelling,


1065206624.txt
Many kind thanks for going out of your way to respond to this. Colleagues have increasingly been warning me against "taking the bait" too often (which this seems another attempt at), and so I resisted giving the detailed response that you have nicely provided (as well as I could have myself, I might add). They dried to bog Ben Santer down with distractions, they've been trying to do the same to me, and its supposed to be a warning to the rest of us. So the trick is to find the middle ground between responding to most egregious and potentially damaging accusations, and not swinging at every ball they throw your way.



1103236623.txt
I think the hardest, yet most important part, is to boil the section down to 0.5 pages. In looking over your good outline, sent back on Oct. 17 (my delay is due to fatherdom just after this time), you cover ALOT. The trick may be to decide on the main message and use that to guid what's included and what is left out.


1121869083.txt
In practice this is hard to do (because some records are sensible "local" composites already, and how far do you go in showing all input data? The problem of what and how to composite is tricky - and no obviously "correct" way is apparent. Having said this, Tom's way is fine with me (provided the composites are robust) and we get general agreement.


1135197791.txt
This last one is tricky, since no one at the TS mtg thought such a simulation exists, BUT it seems it is ok for us to get/use a new long simulation by one of the EMIC models used in Chap >10. Peck (ACTION ITEM) needs to figure out how to get this, but Thomas Stocker indicated he'd help. Stafan - what about you guys >doing this? Who else could we ask for fast turnaround?


1153233036.txt
Neither of these comes up to the 20th century making plotting on the same >scale as observed temperature rather tricky!


1168014304.txt
I am contacting you to schedule the upcoming teleconference. Due to the extreme variability in your time zones this will likely be a bit tricky and outside "normal" business hours for some of you.


1179416790.txt
Heard anything back from IUGG yet? I thought Mike's email was helpful, if that doesn't do the trick I don't know what will,


1199325151.txt
As I've mentioned in previous emails, I think it's a little tricky to figure out the null distribution of rejection rates - i.e., the distribution that might be expected by chance alone.


1200162026.txt
A quick-and-dirty way to explore this possibility using a "trick" used with precipitation data is to apply a square root transformation to the rejection rates, average these, then reverse transform the average. The square root transformation should yield data that is more nearly Gaussian than the untransformed data.


1209080077.txt
Estimating the order of a more complex AR model is a tricky business. Typically, something like the BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) or AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) is used to do this.


1216753979.txt
Thanks for all your help with the tricky job of brokering the submission of the paper to IJoC.


1228249747.txt
The issue of auditing is a tricky one. The auditers must, themselves, be able to demonstrate that they have no ulterior motives.


1252164302.txt
#5 is tricky. Giving him the data would be good, but only if it is yours to give. You can't give him data that you got from others and are not allowed to share. But, it would be nice if he could have access to all the data that we used - that's the way science is supposed to work.


1254850534.txt
It is tricky to get the regional volc signal because of SNR problems at the smaller spatial scale. I wrote all this up more than 10 years ago, but have not got around to finalizing it to submit for publication.






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Nov 21 2009 02:29pm
Quote (AiNedeSpelCzech @ Nov 21 2009 05:27am)
Trusting some rand who breaks the law without question is so very much your style that I can't think of much to say about it, so I'll move on.

I agree with you 100% that anyone who takes a dim view of humanity about this sort of thing is a twat who needs to get a reality check. There's no particular reason to depopulate at the moment and the Earth can hold a fair number of us rather comfortably. Depopulation is retarded indeed, and there's little reason to see people as being so bad.

But why the swipe at recycling? You like landfills or something?


We're actually over capacity right now. We need to start shrinking the population. This should be done through contraception.
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Nov 21 2009 02:31pm
I believe I read somewhere that any number over 5 billion would seriously mess with the Earth. Maximum capacity is believed to be 9 billion, but we'll probably think of something before that happens.
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Nov 21 2009 02:34pm
Quote (jjarv @ 21 Nov 2009 16:29)
We're actually over capacity right now. We need to start shrinking the population. This should be done through contraception.


sause?

If we used up a little less, I think we could do just fine in the 6-7B zone without trouble.

Though I'm all for contraception and working on zero population growth.
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Nov 21 2009 02:35pm
Quote (inkanddagger @ Nov 21 2009 01:00pm)
And Finally:

http://i475.photobucket.com/albums/rr112/judsonparker/wmo913.png

You can see that each measurement (one is ice core data, one is tree ring data, one is actual recorded data) still follows a similar warming trend - across three unrelated organizations, including the one the deniers are attempting to use to "disprove GW". They have to naturalize these lines in order to figure out a real mean average.

You guys ever take math?


solar flares brah
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Nov 21 2009 02:43pm
Quote (Dakilleux @ 21 Nov 2009 17:20)
I'm going to believe this as much as a single internet blog post deserves to be believed in.


You've accurately summarised my feelings in one simple sentence.
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