It ain´t looking good. Last 24 hours has pushed team-happening by 20 points.



Wagner isn´t the real multiplier, it is that the coups have major popular backing. The french taking advantage of Africa would´ve been okay if they could help establish a relative security (hint, they couldn´t).. Then again this is just a west-centric view, africa is muddled by intricate tribalistic/ethnic division and conflict.

This post was edited by ownyaah on Aug 10 2023 05:07pm

53 coups or coup attempts in Africa since 2010.... this wouldn't happen if France was Africa's only problem.

Africa being like
"I got 99 million problems, and France is one".

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 10 2023 05:11pm

My information on Africa is a bit lacking, so i am not gonna pretend I know enough, but if Africa is anything like the middle east:
1. It is plagued by sectarian division, corruption and incompetence.
2. US/EU has had a massive hand in causing it endless conflict both historically and in present day.

1 & 2 are usually intertwined (or caused directly/indirectly by each other).

Saying it is 1/100, is pushing it, in the middle east it would be closer to 50%+.

Furthermore I wouldn´t be surprised it is even worse in Africa, considering the african franc and her implications.. Lets not be unrealistically naive.

This post was edited by ownyaah on Aug 10 2023 05:26pm

The cliff notes version is that the west, russia and china have all been juggling african countries in their sphere of influence- China and the world bank by predatory lending to fund social programs and infrastructure at the cost of long term resource contracts for china so they can gobble it when it matters, and imposing american values and military hosting and letting us micromanage their puppet regimes. Meanwhile Russia has just backed populist coups in the sahel in the last few years to get some client regimes swept out from under us.

Niger was a 'mostly stable' country until now, not wracked by constant warfare or sectarian violence, just a starving shithole where nobody has basic utilities or internet access or speaks english, or even speaks french despite being a former colony. Its been a while since the last coup, at least.

My understanding was that the sahel populist coups were a direct consequence of french security failures if anything? Or is the view that they are being robbed blindly?

Two years, to be precise.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat_attempt

Not exactly what I would call a stable country. But then again - how is a starving shithole supposed to ever become stable when its land consists of 90% desert and it has a fertility rate of 7 children per woman? Today, Niger has a population of around 25 million. Back in 2000, it was 10.5 million. At the current growth rate, their population would reach 73 million by 2050 and (hypothetically) 190 million by 2075.

Naive take. China was also a starving shithole, with a 5-6+ fertility rate not long ago.

This post was edited by ownyaah on Aug 10 2023 05:51pm

And they would still be a starving shithole today if not for the government crackdown on their population growth. China overdid it and should have gone for a two-child policy, but that's a different story.
Oh, and don't forget that China actually has plenty of fertile land and can self-sustain a substantive population. By contrast, Niger and other countries of the Sahel zone mostly consist of desert and shrubland.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 10 2023 06:02pm

Too much skepticism. I think people underestimate where Africa will be in 50-100 years.

This post was edited by ownyaah on Aug 10 2023 06:16pm

*attempt

I mean, this is how it was going before this coup;
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/5/9/analysis-can-niger-become-the-main-western-ally-in-the-sahel

We regarded it as the most stable in the region, which is a tallest midget award.