In a vacuum you're probably right. But as long as the US is involved in those regions, the Russians will continue to make our job harder through destabilization campaigns.

Are they? I dont really see how terrorist attacks could have political consequences which negatively affect the billionaire class all that much.




When it comes to Syria, it was the American "job" which could be described as a destabilization campaign...

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 25 2021 03:42pm

According to our war games, not so much.

The American military is far more powerful, but it has to be. This is a levered situation, it is much more taxing to project force thousands of miles across the Pacific with limited large, land based military installations. From the Chinese perspective, they can throw a rock and hit Taiwan. American military resources are distributed across the globe, the Chinese military operates almost exclusively within China and its territories.

Without access to Taiwan, the United States would find it difficult to defend either the Senkakus or Okinawa. The Chinese would aim to present the United States with a fait accompli. If China seizes Taiwan and has the ability to threaten Guam and Okinawa, does the United States really possess the resolve to go to war with China? I don't think we have nearly that sort of mettle anymore. As you said, you are talking about tens of millions of men in uniform, a complete war economy, and in all likelihood millions of deaths. I don't think we have the stomach for that.

Does the CCP? Their rule is predicated on the promise of stability and ever-growing wealth/standard of living for the Chinese people. Entering an all-out, years long war against the United States and its allies would be an incalculable risk for their grip on power.

Russia was able to defeat Germany during WW2 but the Russians were absolutely devastated. Just because you accomplish your goal (in this case, capture Taiwan), doesn't mean you won't be hurt quite badly. It would cost the Chinese tens of billions of dollars in equipment and tens of thousands of men. Then there will be the economic consequences which will cost them trillions of dollars over the next decade. Will the Chinese stomach that?

As for America, we react quite well when we are attacked. There's no doubt in my mind that photos of dead US soldiers, sunken ships, etc. would drive a fanatic level of patriotism. It would be an attack akin to Pearl Harbor.

the united states never had a total war with a major power, they fought a depleted germany twice when everyone else already did the dirtiest work and japan had the majority of their guys in china and a massive lack of resources

in the great scheme of things their casualties were nowhere near what other countries experienced and their own territory was never affected, this would definitely change

in the meantime the encounters with some korean, chinese, vietnamese and afghan farmers werent exactly successful

obviously they are still the biggest military power, but the country and society would never last in a prolonged conflict with china

the us are already falling apart without war and while they are busy with transgender bullshit the chinese keep building

thank god for nuclear weapons that prevent any of this from happening



china will sacrifice tens of thousands and more in a heartbeat

since when do communists care about that?

You're missing the key point: the CCP's first and foremost goal is to maintain its own power. Expanding its influence abroad is only a secondary or tertiary goal. Entering an unpredictable war against a powerful, dangerous enemy would endanger their rule.

Chinese are too smart to attack Taiwan.

They will probably divide us with racist propaganda and steal one of our bioweapons and release it to start a pandemic that causes paranoia...

Oh wait



China can't make its own food. It isnt prepared for open war.

This post was edited by EndlessSky on Mar 25 2021 06:52pm

sure, the CCP's primary domestic goal is to maintain power and quell every kind of opposition, be it political, social, or cultural - but that doesn't mean we should neglect or ignore their rapid modernisation and expansion of all their military branches. of course most of the military conflict scenarios that jsp is salivating about are bullshit, china is smarter than that - but it IS a crucial part in pursuing their regional territorial ambitions. still, they are NOT looking for an outright war - not with the philippines, vietnam, and malaysia in the south china sea, not with india in their border conflict, let alone with the US. they have nothing to gain from that, regardless of what military equipment fetishists, war game enthusiast, or defence industry propaganda tell us.
also, it's not exactly a secret what china's long term strategy in terms of global hegemony is: economic investment, focusing on trading infrastructure in financially vulnerable regions.