Quote (thundercock @ 4 Aug 2020 20:04)
I'm not sure I agree with this. Sure, he has an enthusiasm gap but that's not particularly relevant. Bernie had the most enthusiasm and that didn't mean much at all in the grand scheme of things. In the era of negative partisanship, you just need to be more likeable than your opponent. Biden is bland and while he wouldn't do well against an Obama, he would do fine against most candidates because his base coalition (blacks and rust belt voters) is a great starting point. Trump has NEVER led Biden (before or after the primary) so I think it speaks volumes that he's minimizing mistakes and campaigning smartly.
Well, Biden got very lucky with the coronavirus pandemic which destroyed the economy Trump wanted to run on, exposed his incompetence in a way that even many of his supporters cant ignore, and leveled the playing field during the campaign. Speaking of which: Trump is far more charismatic and a far better campaigner than Biden. The pandemic making rallies impossible and giving Biden a plausible reason to keep hiding in his basement plays totally into his hands.
Also, I'm not convinced Biden is that strong with rust belt voters. That's his public image, "Scranton Joe" who travelled to work by train for 30 years. But if you actually look at the polls, you will see that Trump is still very popular with Obama-Trump voters which tend to be blue-collar and are particularly numerous in the rust belt. Meanwhile, Biden's advantage over Trump comes from the suburbs, which continue to trend away from Trump/the GOP. His strength in the suburbs, rather than with blue-collar workers, is also what propelled Biden to a win on Super Tuesday, and thus his victory over Bernie more generally.
The story of American politics this year is really easy to tell: suburbia rejected Bernie and his ideas of socialism, and it increasingly rejects Trump and his chaotic, flailing ineptitude. The suburbs dont want a revolution, they want a return to normalcy, and Biden promises to deliver just that.
It is of course foolish to assume that a return to the status quo ante could fix the problems or rein in the forces that got the country into its current predicament in the first place, but the election will most definitely be over before they realize that.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 4 2020 02:13pm