So this means that there's no sign of a hot war imminent. Russia can simply take over DPR and LPR unchecked, fortify their position and have no strategic need to move forward. Why overextend into the worthless west Ukraine when they can recapture the valuable east without a fight?
There's still the same chance of provocation and escalation that has existed for years, its not a stable scenario, but people speculating over muh tens of thousands dead in a bloody conflict are going to be disappointed when its just another bloodless annexation.

DPR and LPR aren't Ukrainian territory and they haven't been since 2014 when the fratricidal regime in Kiev launched an all-out war on its own people.

Furthermore, a peacekeeping mission is a far-cry from the full-scale invasion involving 100 thousand troops and thousands of tanks promised by Biden.

Third, the Russian move is a direct response to Ukraine's threat to attack DPR and LPR and attempt to crush them by force. It literally wouldn't be happening if Kiev had not ripped up the Minsk agreements. Therefore, it is their own fault.

Oh but I forgot, Ukraine doesn't have to take responsibility for anything and everything is always Russia's fault no matter what the facts actually are.

the annexation will come later

first there will be two independent republics and then they will vote to join russia with at least 99,9% of the votes

There are Russian tanks in Ukraine as we speak. Keep spinning.

Reading this hot take after Putin ordered Russian troops into Ukraine.

They haven't done any of those things.

The Ukrainian people launched the 2014 revolution when Yanukovych kowtowed to Russian interests against those of Ukraine. Large majorities in Ukraine want to be aligned with the West. No one wants to be tied to Russia's sinking boat and unique form of kleptocratic authoritarianism. The Ukrainian government is not fascist by definition. The Ukrainian government has no reason to push for war, and many reasons why not to. The Russian government requires conflict, because the current regime is floundering. It's increasingly isolated, living standards are collapsing, and its diplomatic outreach is increasingly limited to international pariahs.

Chinese influence is growing, because the Chinese have a growing economy. You don't get to lump Russia's sob story in with Chinese success. The Chinese have the opportunity to rewrite history, whether for better or (more likely) for worse, Russia is no more than a footnote.

Bloodless? Ukraine has 1/3 the population of Russia, is on its own turf, and had just received $2.5B with of small antitank, anti artillery, and anti air missiles that aren't structures but rather highly mobile weapons. Russia couldn't conquer Afghanistan and they aren't nearly as well armed or motivated (or well fed) as the free people of Ukraine. Plus the people of Ukraine are under the real threat of losing their freedom of self determination and determining their own government. They just overthrew the puppet Russian government that was actually already installed, installing another is going to be difficult.

Russia has the second greatest military in the world, and Ukraine is 26ish. But Ukraine's entire military and reserves are dedicated to the defense of Ukraine. Russia needs to spread its army around because it is so busy attacking or puppeteering their neighbors that they need troops everywhere to keep the peace.. It is an illiberal dictatorship after all. Ukraine is a liberal democracy and wishes to stay free.

If Russia invades it will be after one of these false flags sticks. There have been several already. They like start by establishing air superiority and bombing any anti armor and anti air weapons that are structural (hence the $2.5b small arms given to Ukraine to defend themselves) and then launch a ground invasion, while the Ukrainian game plan will be stall stall stall, trade blood for time, and hope the west helps them during this obvious war crime being committed. I can't imagine Europe will sit back and allow Russia to just invade a sovereign state like it did with Hitler and Poland. I don't think appeasement is on the menu this time. That is what NATO was created for.

Right now the ball is in Russia's court. They've already occupied two regions of Ukraine, Crimea and Donbass, by sending in their military dressed as irregulars (the little green men that were all over were professional soldiers) and they're now eyeing Odessa and Kiev. Letting Russia start a new pogrom in Ukraine would be so catastrophic strategically to NATO I don't think it would be allowed.

Pax Americana is being tested. We have had relative global peace since WW2 to the benefit of everyone, but especially the poor countries of the world. Pax Americana ends when Russia is allowed to start invading the Warsaw countries again unchecked, when China is allowed to move back into Taiwan unchecked, when the allies of the United States are no longer safe because they can't count on us to stand up to the regional dictator getting too big for their britches.

Letting Russia and China get away with cheating in the Olympics is bad enough.



It will be quite a Russian election I'm sure. "Managed Democracy".

That is why Russia is struggling and declaring war on people. They are a rapine economy. Real Democracies don't declare war on each other, their populations are too empowered.

I have no animosity toward the Russian people, but they can't attack their neighbors anymore. Ukraine isn't theirs.

Biden should announce parts of Russia as independent to troll Putin lol.

This post was edited by Skinned on Feb 21 2022 04:36pm

ukraine is a corrupt oligarchy, it has been before the sponsored maidan regime change bs and it still is

all this could have been avoided with fair elections that were just a few months away before the maidan rebellion

and the new regime immediately used violence against their own people for not just accepting that coup

you are overestimating these guys, they have soldiers with wooden sticks as guns begging for actual weapons on german tv

this should be settled with a referendum under observation of the UN

if the eastern ukrainians are done with kiev its their right to leave, its literally written in the charta

This post was edited by JohnnyMcCoy on Feb 21 2022 04:37pm

nuh uh, he ordered troops into the newly recognized as independent Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, thereby making it now a "peacekeeping operation" instead of an "invasion"




Half of what-used-to-be-Ukraine would prefer Russia to the post Euromaidan coup administration in Kyiv, whether you agree with their geopolitical sphere expanding or not. Putin didn't need to rig the Crimean polls in 2014, its how the people felt.
What difference does it make to the average Ukrainian, even in the west and inside America's sphere of influence? The corrupt Russia oligarchy that was pilfering their natural resources was uprooted and replaced by a corrupt Western oligarchy that promptly pilfered their natural resources. And nobody in the west was willing to actually back them, invest in nationbuilding or ward off Russia. Putin was free to circumvent Ukraine with Nord Stream 2 to free up the last bit of leverage held by Western Ukraine, Germany was all too willing to suckle at Putin's teat, and now the inevitable has come to pass. The most half-assed foreign intervention and CIA backed overthrow of a regime wasn't going to motivate the masses to hold the line and throw away their lives in service of the EU and USA. Putin just made a formality out of the status quo.

Well we are sending real ones, hope their dad's played ball with them it helps with the old hand-eye!

If Russians are there for them to shoot they are by nature defending themselves.

This post was edited by Skinned on Feb 21 2022 04:37pm