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#391
Nov 3 2020 09:20pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Nov 3 2020 07:17pm)
not sure if good for US f they are lead by a clown for a second term.



It's good, it means civil war and no more US, we get to split into regions and the red areas will become third world shitholes.
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#392
Nov 3 2020 09:20pm
Quote (thundercock @ 4 Nov 2020 04:06)
Wasn't the conventional wisdom that Trump was supposed to be ahead on election night until mail-in votes are counted? Given Trump's FL margins, I'd say that Trump's chances are much higher than the 10%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

If you give Trump NC, FL, and GA to Trump it's a 50/50 election. That basically brings the election down to PA. You give Biden Co and Trump OH and you're still 50/50


The CW was that Biden would lead among the early votes, then Trump surges ahead with his large lead on election day votes, and then late-arriving mail and absentee ballots lean Democratic again, shrinking the R lead a bit in the end.



Giving Trump NC, FL and GA (and TX) doesnt mean that he's hugely favored in and off itself. But his winning margins in GA and FL are on track to outperform even optimistic expectations. We're not in a world where he hung on to these states by the skin of his teeth with 0.2% margins or something like that, he'll win them by 3+. And that, in turn, has ramifications for the entire model. Conditional on Trump winning these two states by 3 each, his chances at winning the EC are definitely higher than 50/50.
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#393
Nov 3 2020 09:21pm
Quote (fuzzy159 @ Nov 3 2020 11:19pm)
Well then it's safe to say that not every retard voted for him.


Ouch ooch omg.
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#394
Nov 3 2020 09:21pm
Quote (inkanddagger @ Nov 3 2020 07:20pm)
It's good, it means civil war and no more US, we get to split into regions and the red areas will become third world shitholes.


taking odds now on whether blue areas or red areas will become anarchist shitholes
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#395
Nov 3 2020 09:21pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 3 2020 09:20pm)
The CW was that Biden would lead among the early votes, then Trump surges ahead with his large lead on election day votes, and then late-arriving mail and absentee ballots lean Democratic again, shrinking the R lead a bit in the end.

Giving Trump NC, FL and GA (and TX) doesnt mean that he's hugely favored in and off itself. But his winning margins in GA and FL are on track to outperform even optimistic expectations. We're not in a world where he hung on to these states by the skin of his teeth with 0.2% margins or something like that, he'll win them by 3+. And that, in turn, has ramifications for the entire model. Conditional on Trump winning these two states by 3 each, his chances at winning the EC are definitely higher than 50/50.


Been saying the models could be totally wrong for a while now.

This is a weird race
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#396
Nov 3 2020 09:21pm
Quote (inkanddagger @ 3 Nov 2020 22:20)
It's good, it means civil war and no more US, we get to split into regions and the red areas will become third world shitholes.


preach baby
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#397
Nov 3 2020 09:22pm
Quote (AspenSniper @ Nov 3 2020 10:18pm)
PA/WI/MI/AZ all go biden and he only needs to get 3 of the 4. He's safe.

Nailbiter tho.


:rofl:
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#398
Nov 3 2020 09:22pm
Quote (proccy @ 4 Nov 2020 04:17)
and the salt begins :lol:

how does it feel being wrong all the time :)


"all time" ?
Getting that horrible sack of shit of a clown in office a second time is suicide for your country.
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#399
Nov 3 2020 09:22pm
Quote (thundercock @ Nov 3 2020 08:39pm)
If WI goes red, I am eating crow. Literally, I will find a crow in the street and eat it. :rofl:


Caw caw
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#400
Nov 3 2020 09:23pm
Quote (inkanddagger @ 4 Nov 2020 04:20)
It's good, it means civil war and no more US, we get to split into regions and the red areas will become third world shitholes.


yep that's the best explanation; blow up the system. agree.
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