Rebuttal: Correlation != Causation

You need to look at their respective policies. Granted, Democrats clearly have the wrong policies but Republicans don't care to come up with a better solution. In general, Republicans don't care about urban areas because their bread and butter is rural/suburban. If they did, they would win elections and be mayors of those cities.

2/10 effort better luck trolling next time my friend!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/25/trump-keeps-claiming-that-most-dangerous-cities-america-are-all-run-by-democrats-they-arent/

The reason they say Trump is wrong is because his specific quote they are referencing says "“You hear about certain places like Chicago and you hear about what’s going on in Detroit and other — other cities, all Democrat run,” he said. “Every one of them is Democrat run. Twenty out of 20. The 20 worst, the 20 most dangerous are Democrat run.”"

So Trump is saying that all 20 out of 20 are Democrat run, and he's making this very specific claim, so he's wrong since 17/20 aren't Democrat run.

But the meat of why Trump is wrong is further down in the article, because most cities are Democrat run since most cities tend to the left. So to say "most dangerous cities are Democrat" isn't meaningful since most cities in general are Democrat.



Basically it's only dishonest if you don't read the full article for the reason they are saying these things. Cam just found a cherry picked picture that confirmed his view and ran with it.

It wasn't a troll. Why WOULD Republicans care about inner-cities? It's not their problem...

It's no different than Democrats trying to court Evangelical Whites. It's a complete waste of time.

So, tldr: Trump used slightly too strong words, but the essence of his argument (these urban crime hotspots are overwhelmingly governed by Democrats) is spot on.

Yes, most cities in general are run by Democrats, and therefore the most dangerous ones are run by Dems too. But this doesnt absolve them from their responsibility for the situaton in these cities. Them blaming Trump or Republicans for the specifics of the situation in inner-cities is ridiculous. Picking apart Trump's exaggerated choice of words does nothing to change this simple fact.

It's only "spot on" if you forget to subtract the background. There will be a distribution of dangerousness in cities, and if 90% of the cities are run by Democrats, then you find 90% of the most dangerous cities are run by Democrats, you must conclude that Democrats haven't failed the most dangerous cities because their leadership hasn't made them more dangerous. You could make the same analysis on the least dangerous cities.

And Trump statement is still incorrect because he made a very specific and testable claim. If he had said most are run by democrats then it might not still be meaningful but it would at least not be incorrect.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Jun 27 2020 03:06pm

You're leaving out relevant context too: that violent crime is higher in cities than in the suburbs or rural places. Your argument is built on the idea that the crucial comparison is between low- and high-crime cities. But this premise is false, it's about the contrast between urban and non-urban places.

Police, schools, housing - those are all fields which (almost exclusively) fall into the responsibility of local government. And since Democrats are the ones in charge of (almost) all the city halls and mayor's officies, it's ridiculous when they blame Trump or Republicans for issues with violence in their cities, racism among their PDs, over- or underprosecution by their district attorneys, etc.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 27 2020 03:32pm

No lol

My premise is that if the background is 90% then saying democrats control the worst 90% of any factor means they aren't causing the problem.

It doesnt matter who caused these problems. Almost all major American cities have been run by Democrats since basically forever. So when one of these cities hasnt made progress on these problems, then it is them who's politically responsible for this lack of progress, not Trump or the GOP.

For example, why the fuck have they not rooted out "systemic racism" inside the PDs they had political control over throughout the past decades (like in Minneapolis or Atlanta)?

Cities being "the most dangerous" does not mean they aren't making progress, or haven't improved compared to where they would have been under alternative leadership. If you look at violent crime it is down like 60% since ~1995. They've made tremendous progress by your logic.

You need to do some reading on statistics, because so far your arguments have relied on nothing but a misunderstanding of math, particularly statistics.


Suppose 90% of the jobs are in Democrat run cities. In 1940 90% of the most dangerous jobs take place in Democrat run cities. In 2000, 90% of jobs are still in Democrat cities, but after extensive worker safety legislation the 90% most dangerous jobs are much safer, but they are still in Democrat run cities. They've made progress, even though they still have 90% of the most dangerous jobs, because they have 90% of all jobs. They have the most dangerous jobs, the safest jobs, the jobs with the most obesity, the jobs with the healthiest and unhealthiest workers, etc. etc. because they have almost all of the jobs.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Jun 27 2020 04:53pm