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Dems losing CA-25 special election for Katie Hill's seat:

/e lmao I thought that was polling not election results
he already won I'm dumb

well I just had a longwinded post saying CA-25 could be a good indicator for the nation, moreso in the "if republicans somehow lose it, it spells doom, but if they win, can't read much into it"
can't read much into this one

This post was edited by Goomshill on May 13 2020 02:46am

fivethirtyeight had an article about the special elections:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/


tldr: Garcia was slightly favored in early polling, pundits rated the race a toss-up, both sides spent roughly the same amount of money on this race.
so the GOP candidate winning by a full 12% is quite the statement.

turnout patterns which cant be expected to hold in November (when Smith and Garcia will meet for a rematch) have favored Republicans though:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/12/us/elections/results-california-house-district-25-special-general-election.html


"Tracking data shows a significant voting gap along generational lines. Roughly 56% of voters 65 and older returned a mail ballot. Just 19% of those younger than 35 did so. "
"There’s a voting gap along ethnic lines, too: While 40% of white voters returned their mail ballots, only 21% of Latinos did so. "

"If Garcia indeed wins, expect Democrats to downplay the loss by saying that the special election is too idiosyncratic to draw lessons for the fall. "

My take was, it would be astounding if democrats recaptured the district after Katie Hill. It went from being a Republican leaning district to a Hillary leaning district that Katie Hill only won by promising to be a moderate that avoided antagonizing Trump. Then she got into office and took off the mask and redefined herself as an idpol progressive and railed against Trump, then abruptly went down in flames with piles of scandals, sex, drugs, lies, etc. She burned her district twice. Its hard to imagine moderates who were lukewarm about democrats deciding to reward their betrayal with another seat.
So I don't view the 12% margin as that dramatic. Its more of a lack of a signal against Trump than it is a signal for Trump

I do imagine Cenk would have captured a full 25% of the vote if it had been him. I mean, Arthur J. Jones got 25% in 2018 even with both parties campaigning against him

This post was edited by Goomshill on May 13 2020 04:21am

I find it kind of funny how little traction Cenk got despite his high name recognition. To be fair, the 19% turnout rate among voters below 35 might have something to do with that.


What I find a more representative result is the 14-point GOP win in that Wisconsin race. It's a solid red district, but still... Baldwin lost it by 5% in 2018 and just a month ago, the Democratic candidate in that high-profile state supreme court race lost it by 6.
We cant draw too much from isolated special elections in the calendric no-man's-land, but both results at least indicate that it's not as doom and gloom for Congressional Republicans as the 8-point gap on the generic congressional ballot suggests.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 13 2020 04:34am

But this isn't a recession, it is an external threat. It is more comparable to being involved on a war than the Dot.com recession or housing bubble, which were caused by the market itself in the first case and unregulated derivatives on the second.

This is an external threar killing Americans, and it is doing it in a way no war has been able to do as well, which is kill American civilians where they live.

We are a geriatric country. Would be insane for government not to serve some geriatric interests. It is a government full of geriatric white people for the most part anyway so they will serve themselves.

This is actually unprecedented in American history.... But this is how courtiers went about dealing with massive plauges. Going about normal business is just suicidal.

Imagine how much better things would have gone if trump just followed the book about this that Obama had written for him instead of firing all the people who participated and his pandemic training for being traitors.

This post was edited by Skinned on May 13 2020 05:44am

based african-american job creator tells off racist politician who is just another lecherous avaricious drain on the taxpayer

This post was edited by excellence on May 13 2020 05:56am

Elon Musk really wants to risk his employees health to make that money right now lol.

Funny thing about Elon is that he is a billionaire that has to borrow money to pay his bills. He's selling all his houses now because he can't afford them, and if he did pay his bills with his own money, he would have to liquidate cash and lose control share of the businesses he is a majority owner of.

Elon Musk who can't even come up with an earth name for a child.

Lol this guy has been doing a lot of dumb stuff lately. Maybe he should smoke weed on a show and buy more BiPaps for NYC to help their terrible sleep apnea affliction between flamethrower play sessions lol.

This post was edited by Skinned on May 13 2020 07:17am

yeah better to go with the african-american businessesman who creates jobs over the rantings of privileged lefties. he was burning through his own money to make payroll for his employees when starting up tesla lmao you really do hate immigrants and job creators