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May 20 2019 05:23pm
Quote (ampoo @ 20 May 2019 21:35)
kinda forgot about him, but i am talking about germany obviously


true, if corruption, stupidity, and foreign influence had any consequences here, your precious nazi party would have been banned already. dark money, illegal campaign donations, cronyism and favouritism are rampant in the afd...
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May 20 2019 06:10pm
Quote (balrog66 @ 19 May 2019 16:39)
Only 4 days to go until EP elections?

To my EU people, what are you voting?

Personally, I'll be voting PvdD (GUE/NGL) again. Slightly Eurosceptic with a large focus on climate control. The points that I do disagree with I'm fairly convinced will have no impact anyway.


Elections are on Sunday here, and I'll likely vote ALDE, considering Volt has little to no chance of winning a seat in Spain.

This post was edited by zarkadon on May 20 2019 06:11pm
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May 20 2019 06:39pm
Moderated ecologists, so im not risking to regret it later..
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May 20 2019 11:38pm
Quote (ampoo @ 20 May 2019 21:27)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48335316

after the scandal in the austrian government and the resignation of vice chancellor strache, chancellor kurz attempted to fire the minister of the interior kickl
the FPÖ party threatened that in this event all their ministers would leave the government immediately

and thats exactly what happened now, what a shitshow :lol:

but it is kinda refreshing to see a country like austria where corruption and stupidity actually have consequences....unlike some neighbour state


True, but it's still ridiculous how chancellor Kurz exploits the 'Ibiza scandal' to get rid of interior minister Kickl, who had nothing to do with the Ibiza video or the scandal.
There are obvious political reasons for him to want Kickl out of the way, since Kickl is one of the masterminds of the FPÖ, extremely popular with the FPÖ rank and file, and responsible for implementing a large part of the FPÖ's agenda.

Kurz made a huge strategical mistake by giving the interior ministry to the FPÖ, so now he uses the Ibiza scandal as a cover to correct this mistake even though there is almost zero logical or substantial connection between the two.

I really wonder if his Machiavellian ways will bakfire in the end:

  • The FPÖ's politicians are discredited after they were caught with their pants down, and although their agenda remains popular with a significant chunk of the voters, they will take a hit in the new parliamentary elections in September. Since they are discredited, Kurz would lose his face if he formed a coalition with them again after the fall election, and since he just fucked them over with those Kickl-shenanigans, the FPÖ would tell him to go f*** himself anyway.
  • He has a very bad relationship with the SPÖ and the Greens, and there would be no way that he could pursue his economically liberal (for american readers: libertarian) policies with them.
  • Thus, the only way he will be able to continue his government and work on his agenda is if his own ÖVP party grows by enough to govern by itself, or get a majority with the small NEOS party, which is very much in question even if many right-leaning voters switch from the FPÖ to the ÖVP in the wake of the scandal.

Kurz is taking a huuuuge gamble if you ask me.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 20 2019 11:39pm
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May 21 2019 02:23am
Quote (fender @ 21 May 2019 01:23)
true, if corruption, stupidity, and foreign influence had any consequences here, your precious nazi party would have been banned already. dark money, illegal campaign donations, cronyism and favouritism are rampant in the afd...


oh look, the fake news merchant spreads his propaganda again
repeating the term nazi a hundred times wont make it an argument

like a broken record....

look fender, if i apply your standards to other parties then neither merkels party, where money simply vanishes, nor the social democrats or liberals would exist anymore

if there have been illegal donations remains to be seen and the foreign influence argument....was already fake in america now you gotta try it here again

if you wanna talk about fordign meddling, sure thing

lets talk about how the german leftist media played a key role in sabotaging the austrian government right before the european elections with illegally obtained evidence (not forgetting that straches stupidity has caused the problem in the first place)

but hey, thats the good guys against evil right wingers

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 21 May 2019 07:38)
True, but it's still ridiculous how chancellor Kurz exploits the 'Ibiza scandal' to get rid of interior minister Kickl, who had nothing to do with the Ibiza video or the scandal.
There are obvious political reasons for him to want Kickl out of the way, since Kickl is one of the masterminds of the FPÖ, extremely popular with the FPÖ rank and file, and responsible for implementing a large part of the FPÖ's agenda.

Kurz made a huge strategical mistake by giving the interior ministry to the FPÖ, so now he uses the Ibiza scandal as a cover to correct this mistake even though there is almost zero logical or substantial connection between the two.

I really wonder if his Machiavellian ways will bakfire in the end:
  • The FPÖ's politicians are discredited after they were caught with their pants down, and although their agenda remains popular with a significant chunk of the voters, they will take a hit in the new parliamentary elections in September. Since they are discredited, Kurz would lose his face if he formed a coalition with them again after the fall election, and since he just fucked them over with those Kickl-shenanigans, the FPÖ would tell him to go f*** himself anyway.
  • He has a very bad relationship with the SPÖ and the Greens, and there would be no way that he could pursue his economically liberal (for american readers: libertarian) policies with them.
  • Thus, the only way he will be able to continue his government and work on his agenda is if his own ÖVP party grows by enough to govern by itself, or get a majority with the small NEOS party, which is very much in question even if many right-leaning voters switch from the FPÖ to the ÖVP in the wake of the scandal.

Kurz is taking a huuuuge gamble if you ask me.


i expect his party to grow since he did a good job so far and his policies are very popular

what really suprises me is that kurz followed the public demands to have new elections so eagerly

is that absolutely necessary, because one cabinet member had to resign?

the same people crying about generalisations now discredit an entire party (and conservative parties on the whole continent) for the mistake of one individual

kurz gave the left what they wanted way too easily and austria may end up in a political standstill after the new elections
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May 21 2019 02:29am
Quote (ampoo @ 21 May 2019 09:23)
oh look, the fake news merchant spreads his propaganda again
repeating the term nazi a hundred times wont make it an argument

like a broken record....

look fender, if i apply your standards to other parties then neither merkels party, where money simply vanishes, nor the social democrats or liberals would exist anymore

if there have been illegal donations remains to be seen and the foreign influence argument....was already fake in america now you gotta try it here again

if you wanna talk about fordign meddling, sure thing

lets talk about how the german leftist media played a key role in sabotaging the austrian government right before the european elections with illegally obtained evidence (not forgetting that straches stupidity has caused the problem in the first place)

but hey, thats the good guys against evil right wingers



i expect his party to grow since he did a good job so far and his policies are very popular

what really suprises me is that kurz followed the public demands to have new elections so eagerly

is that absolutely necessary, because one cabinet member had to resign?

the same people crying about generalisations now discredit an entire party (and conservative parties on the whole continent) for the mistake of one individual

kurz gave the left what they wanted way too easily and austria may end up in a political standstill after the new elections


unsurprisingly your best 'defense' are unsubstantiated whataboutisms, but that doesn't make the corruption, foreign influence, and illegal donation scandals in your precious nazi party disappear. so for you to bitch about the lack of consequences for such behaviour is pretty rich, since you guys would and should be the first ones to suffer those...
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May 21 2019 04:29am
Quote (ampoo @ 21 May 2019 10:23)
i expect his party to grow since he did a good job so far and his policies are very popular

well, the coalitions work overall was very popular. I wonder, however, how much of this popularity can be attributed to the FPÖ and to the ÖVP. was it the FPÖ-inspired crackdown on illegal and irregular immigrants that was popular, or were it the ÖVP-inspired tax cuts and reductions on job regulations?

was Kurz's introduction of a flexible work hours law which makes the sporadic 12hour work day possible really more popular than the FPÖ's hijab ban in elementary schools?



Quote
what really suprises me is that kurz followed the public demands to have new elections so eagerly

did he? afaik, on Saturday, he was willing to continue the coalition if the FPÖ had - on top of the obvious resignation of Strache and Gudenus - been willing to also sacrifice the interior ministry.
he only decided to go into a snap election because the FPÖ refused this power grab.



Quote
is that absolutely necessary, because one cabinet member had to resign?

not in general, but in this case, his entire coalition partner was under fire from the scandal. but I guess it was necessary to save his own reputation and distance himself from the corruption that he himself had brought into the government when he formed this coalition with the FPÖ.



Quote
the same people crying about generalisations now discredit an entire party (and conservative parties on the whole continent) for the mistake of one individual

this case perfectly fits their narrative and their expectations, what did you expect? ^_^
what they still dont seem to get is that almost all right-wing populist parties suffer from the lack of professionality and integrity of their personnel, and that most of their voters vote for these parties because of the agenda in spite of the personnel.

yes, one prominent right-wing politician has been caught with his pants down and turned out to be a corrupt piece of shit. but none of this diminishes the issues which cause people to vote for the FPÖ and similar parties in the first place. yes, the FPÖ will suffer in the September election, but this is no long-term solution to the "problem" with right-wing populists. in the long run, the only way for the mainstream political parties to deal with right-wing populists is to solve those issues that make the populists strong. and they STILL refuse to do just that.



Quote
kurz gave the left what they wanted way too easily and austria may end up in a political standstill after the new elections

Kurz definitely is not thrilled by the prospect of having to coalise with the social democrats or the greens, so this clearly is a risk that he took deliberately.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 21 2019 04:32am
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May 21 2019 06:28am
Quote (fender @ 21 May 2019 10:29)
unsurprisingly your best 'defense' are unsubstantiated whataboutisms, but that doesn't make the corruption, foreign influence, and illegal donation scandals in your precious nazi party disappear. so for you to bitch about the lack of consequences for such behaviour is pretty rich, since you guys would and should be the first ones to suffer those...


copy&paste
another post with more repetitions of fake arguments

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 21 May 2019 12:29)
well, the coalitions work overall was very popular. I wonder, however, how much of this popularity can be attributed to the FPÖ and to the ÖVP. was it the FPÖ-inspired crackdown on illegal and irregular immigrants that was popular, or were it the ÖVP-inspired tax cuts and reductions on job regulations?

was Kurz's introduction of a flexible work hours law which makes the sporadic 12hour work day possible really more popular than the FPÖ's hijab ban in elementary schools?




did he? afaik, on Saturday, he was willing to continue the coalition if the FPÖ had - on top of the obvious resignation of Strache and Gudenus - been willing to also sacrifice the interior ministry.
he only decided to go into a snap election because the FPÖ refused this power grab.




not in general, but in this case, his entire coalition partner was under fire from the scandal. but I guess it was necessary to save his own reputation and distance himself from the corruption that he himself had brought into the government when he formed this coalition with the FPÖ.




this case perfectly fits their narrative and their expectations, what did you expect? ^_^
what they still dont seem to get is that almost all right-wing populist parties suffer from the lack of professionality and integrity of their personnel, and that most of their voters vote for these parties because of the agenda in spite of the personnel.

yes, one prominent right-wing politician has been caught with his pants down and turned out to be a corrupt piece of shit. but none of this diminishes the issues which cause people to vote for the FPÖ and similar parties in the first place. yes, the FPÖ will suffer in the September election, but this is no long-term solution to the "problem" with right-wing populists. in the long run, the only way for the mainstream political parties to deal with right-wing populists is to solve those issues that make the populists strong. and they STILL refuse to do just that.




Kurz definitely is not thrilled by the prospect of having to coalise with the social democrats or the greens, so this clearly is a risk that he took deliberately.


certainly the FPÖ is responsible for the policy going new and more popular ways and thats why kurz wanted the coalition
i think fewer job regulations are not as unpopular as you would think if you have a running economy and fewer taxes allow the people to make more money

fighting illegal migration and political islam is obviously a bigger topic
actually its sad that the existence of the FPÖ is needed to do that by the way

i think kurz didnt want to continue despite saying otherwise before, as you stated
its pretty obvious that the FPÖ would not surrender the ministry they fought so hard to get and which is crucial for what they want to do
this was a delibetate escalation to get rid of the responsibility

he could have demanded new ministers overall instead

of course i expected nothing but a full crackdown and 24/7 propaganda against everything remotely right of the mainstream
and against everyone who even remotely questions the EU sinkhole in brussels

however it should be clear that he term populism has literally zero value, its only being used to discredit conservative opinions
nobody talks about leftist populism or the ridiculous green party fearmongering

obviously a party that is 6 years old like the afd cant have the same organisation as the 150 year old social democrats, who are swimming in money thanks to state support and are closely connected to the media

evil populists messing around makes better headlines than members of established parties constantly getting exposed for incompetence, corruption and stupidity

our government is the best example, von der leyen alone has caused more damage and scandals than these FPÖ guys could with a dozen meetings on ibiza
zero fucks given

the new political parties would be well advised to be more careful and not give responsibility to the those who are the loudest
they have plenty of capable candidates

kurz cant possibly think to form a government with the social democrats again, not doing that is what got him elected in the first place
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May 21 2019 07:13am
Quote (ampoo @ 21 May 2019 14:28)
kurz cant possibly think to form a government with the social democrats again, not doing that is what got him elected in the first place


but thats the thing: it's not all that unlikely that after the new election, he will have to choose between bad options which alll lead to gridlock.



say his ÖVP reaches 39% (+7.5 from the last election), the SPÖ reaches 29% (+2.5), the FPÖ reaches 17% (-9), the NEOS get to 7% (+1.5), the greens make it to 5% (+1) while Liste Pilz comes in at 1.5% (-3.5).
a result like this one imho is the most likely scenario. then what?



ÖVP + NEOS would be a decent fit, but have no majority. the greens would never go along with Kurz's economic agenda, while parts of the ÖVP would never go along with the social policy of the greens. and this 3-party coalition would still only have a tiny majority and be unstable.
The left-liberal coalition of SPÖ, NEOS and greens would be far away from a majority.

So if Kurz and his ÖVP rule out another coalition with the FPÖ, they would only have the choice between an unstable 3-party coalition with the NEOS and greens which would have a shaky majority and obstruct itself on almost all policy fields, or yet another grand coalition with the SPÖ where there is a ton of bad blood and personal animosity, and which would also obstruct itself on almost all policy fields.


the FPÖ is the only real option of breaking up the gridlock, this was the main rationale behind Kurz coalising with them in the first place, and it unfortunately is still true.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 21 2019 07:16am
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May 21 2019 09:00am
reiterating on my previous post: the first polls past the 'ibiza video' are in:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/1-Umfrage-FPOe-stuerzt-brutal-ab/380879718



pretty close to the numbers I came up with. to be fair: with those numbers, there would be a chance for a ÖVP-NEOS coalition, which would be a good fit on most fields and without a doubt the preferred coalition for Kurz.
but there is still a lot of time to campaign until the september elections.
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