Quote (thundercock @ 22 May 2016 13:06)
Hillary will crush Trump in November (347-191 by my map). Trump is getting positive media attention right now since he's not running against anyone at the moment. Hillary, on the other hand, has a political hang-nail and the media keeps making shit up (that the primary is close). After the conventions, Hillary will do much better I think.
I genuinely hope that the Dems destroy Bernie's career after this is over. Strip him of all committee assignments and run someone else against him.
I got Hillary 319-219 right now on my map on 270towin.
I agree with your assessment that Hillary will likely crush Trump in November, but that's employing conventional political wisdom and Trump has defied a lot of conventional wisdom this far. I'm not sure all the standard political rules apply to him, but I do expect Hillary to beat him handily behind women, Hispanics, and Blacks.
I think the ~30% chance betting markets are giving Trump to win are fair. And that's really scary to me. We also can't rule out Hillary's criminal investigation blowing up or her getting indicted, which essentially would be an auto-loss for her and we'd have to see if Biden could beat Trump on short notice.
This post was edited by ThatAlex on May 22 2016 12:36pm